Aqueduct: Closer Looks for December 13, 2013

Race 1

Foxbeau

Took four starts to break her maiden but did so with a stylish win Nov. 15 in which she showed a new dimension by coming from off the pace; that race earned her a 62 Beyer, the top last-race figure in this lineup; and she already ran a 63 in September, too; appealing to fig followers.

Forbidden Talent

She's speedy, having led in two of three starts, but her only win came with Pletcher when she got loose in the slop; perhaps will improve upon that last race, which marked her first start in almost a couple months.

Derek's Girl

Has proven a rewarding claim by Farnsworth; this one has already picked up a graded placing and now drops into a starter; Tempted winner Stopchargingmaria returned to narrowly take the Demoiselle; and Tempted also-ran Stonetastic was third in the Golden Rod; light on Beyers but has a class edge; choice.

Appearance

Looks like a Baffert cull that Davidson bought; Davidson is hitting at a 22% rate on the year and has good numbers with horses joining his stable, but this one seems better suited to routing than sprinting.

Manhattan Gin

Only beat NY- bred maiden 35Ks last time out but did so despite stumbling at the start; nice speed to be head and head for the lead after that troubled beginning, but the presence of speedball Fordidden Talent will make the task of shaking loose difficult.

Fast 'n' Firm

First start in NY and on dirt was disappointing; she just never got involved; showed a lot more in her first race by overcoming a slow start and rallying from sixth to win; candidate to move forward in her second start on dirt.

Race 2

Granby Girl

137 days since finishing evenly on grass where she owns her Beyer speed figure Top; her last-dirt start was a dull effort on AQU Inner but owns her best Beyer on today's main track but over a sloppy-race track; wish we saw more run right for the last 2 starts racing off a 45-day or longer layoff; the 3-back winner repeated with a 74 Beyer taking a SAR-optional claimer next out; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Talent N Passion

Exits her lowest Beyer since July noting her only race on AQU Inner Dirt was a blowout victory when loose on the lead; she has to outbreak The Royal Boot to make the front today then be able to hold off the closers to score; 2 of her 3 races following the September claim were far off her best efforts; know her early then hopes to hang on late for a share.

The Royal Boot

She is a dangerous rival when loose on an easy lead which could very well be the scenario today but has to outbreak Talent N Passion then keep on going; races 1st off the claim for a 27%-winning barn with this angle; wheels back in just 9 days off latest loss her lowest Beyer since July; her 3-back win looks better since the runner-up finisher posted a 76 speed figure in her next-out GP-25K-claiming win.

Ann's Smart Dancer

Have mixed reviews off the August claim although latest on a wet-main track was not her best race noting all 6 wins were accomplished on fast-dirt ovals; is just 1-for-22 since 2012; her March race over the track was a strong effort in defeat beating the show runner who Beyered 83 in her next-out MTH-optional-claiming victory; on a fast track would be hard to leave off bottom half of exotics tickets.

House On Toilsome

Exits her lowest Beyer since July, 2012; her Inner Dirt win which was her last victory and occurred at longer in the mud; clearly her speed figures have taken a dip since the October claim; late runner did not offer a big-stretch kick in last as displayed in so many of her other races during career; is ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Lion D N A

Exits a field-best Beyer when just missing in the mud the 3rd straight start for a new trainer where she was a beaten-betting favorite and likely gets dressed up in that role again today; all 5 wins on fast-race tracks which makes latest even more impressive; today marks her 1st-Inner Dirt attempt while back in just 1 week for a trainer successful with this short-return angle since 2012; the pick.

Promised Mandate

97 days since latest fade on turf at longer for a trainer 0-for the last-17 first-time out with newly-acquired runners; career-best speed figure occurred on a synthetic surface September, 2011; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 82 in her next-out CRC-optional-claiming win; last dirt start in August saw the show runner win next out in a GP-OPC with a 91 Beyer; 111 pounds today is the lightest-weight assignment of her career.

Race 3

Dads Caps

He gives up experience to some quality competition in this starter stakes, led by two-time Grade 3 winner Sage Valley; in his favor is the fact that he a perfect 2-for-2 over the inner track at Aqu; he also faced a champion earlier this year in Shanghai Bobby; in addition, this one has excellent speed and the rail and could shake free if he gives Candyman E the slip at the start; win candidate.

Sage Valley

He's making a notable class move as he drops in from Grade 3 company to this restricted stakes; is arguably the most accomplished member of the field as a three-time stakes winner, with two of those wins coming in Grade 3s; will add blinkers here and has reason to move forward in his second start since September; on a pedigree point, dam was a multiple stakes winner of 17 races and $581K; would be tough to contain with a flashback to his efforts from May and July; win candidate.

Candyman E

He wired his rivals last out in a $62.5K optional claimer from which he was haltered; had taken on Grade 1 rivals just two starts back, and lands in a savvy spot here with the move to a starter stakes; is versatile, and from his post he might get a tracking trip off the rail-drawn Dads Caps; two-time stakes winner is also the field's highest earner with a bankroll of $409K; the drawback is that he gives up recency to these as he has not started since October.

Praetereo

He popped a career-high Beyer Speed Figure when winning a $100K optional claimer last month at Aqu, and the number also ranks as this field's best last-race Beyer; has placed in two stakes in his career, and those efforts came in October; dam was a Grade 2-placed winner of $83K; the main concern is that the six-furlong distance of this race feels less than optimum for him.

Sam Sparkle

He's a stakes winner who in his last start took a $35K claimer at Aqu with a strong Beyer of 95; since the race, the third-place finisher has come back to win a $20K claimer at Aqu by four and a quarter lengths, earning a Beyer of 82; is one of just two horses in the field who has won over the inner track at Aqu, the other being Dads Caps; added blinkers three back, and has shown improved speed of late; seems more in line for a piece rather than the whole pie.

Race 4

Brendan G

Classic seconditis runner may finally atone with rail advantage and drop from special weights; the race 2 back, although not his best Beyer, was one of his top performances when narrowly losing a virtual match race with an encore winner.

Qui C'est Moi

Early fractions at Laurel are often misinterpreted; this colt can be a major pace player today; his sire won 1 of 2 and 62K; the dam was without a tally in 4 attempts; among the winning siblings is 177K earner Classic Legacy.

Steve Came Thru

Newcomer hails from G1 type Stephen Got Even who banked just over a million dollars and whose progeny have won nearly 11 percent of their debuts; the dam went 6 for 30 earning 202K; this is her only foal to compete.

Jackson N Lorimer

Adds blinkers after showing good fighting speed this summer at Saratoga; his sire won several G1s including the Belmont Stakes en route to notching 2.76 million; the dam went 2 for 10 while earning 80K; sib to 28K earner Indian Gods.

Good Guy Mike

Upgraded in that second try after a troubled maiden voyage; his sire won a G2 and 254K while the dam scored in 5 of 23 appearances earning 178K; winning siblings include 30K earner Avenue Way.

Mack Miller

Overbet last month when stretching out to a mile, he still ran a clear-cut second; should be able to handle the turnback in distance in this, only his second outing with the blinkers; should offer a much more generous price this afternoon.

Cuckoo House

This grey's sire won the G2 Brooklyn and 1.11 million (progeny of Limehouse have won 30 out of 219 initial starts); the dam won 8 of 33 and 292K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate.

Sweet Lover

Newcomer shows modest breeze pattern; his sire was undefeated including multiple G1 scores while capturing 749K (offspring of Candy Ride are 51 for 388 as far as winning their first test); the dam was zero for 3: sib to 83K earner Always Mine.

Midnight Wind

Do not overlook this runner who is in for a tag for the first time; exits one of the strongest maiden fields at Parx and he could obtain ideal stalking position today; latest half-mile breeze is the key; the value play and exotic wagering recommendation.

My Pisano

Never fired last month in his first run but the race itself came up above average in quality; his sire won a G3 and 586K; the dam was zero for 5 lifetime; among the winning siblings is 397K earner Tropic Storm.

Race 6

Takajo

The races at Saratoga were promising; 2nd and 5th finisher on 8/1 graduated next out and the winner that day repeated in a $50K optional, then made it 3 in a row taking a $25K optional with an 89 Beyer; if he runs back to the summer finale, the rest could be looking at minor prizes.

Candy At My Place

One of a number in here up for sale for the first time, any are eligible to run big; soph rushed up after stumbling in last and understandably tired; stakes winning 4 for 21 dam banked $150K; this is her first to roll; there is speed outside of him; figures to at least muddle the pace.

Green Gratto

The drop is local the way colt has been stopping; he has some semblance of speed and could show more with the blinks today; he was somewhat boosted when the winner of last repeated in an N1X with a 96 Beyer; connections would love to see him start acting like full brother and 7 for 11 performer Flying Zealous, who banked nearly $175K.

Distorted Dream

Never love to see them giving up clear leads like she did two back; youngster could be more relaxed and aware of the surroundings with the blinks off this time; Cohen rides the inner strip solidly; back with claimers, look out.

Ten Year Warranty

Gelding could have been intimidated by the rail; a lot of young horse faced that problem; he was off a tad show in the process; 8 for 32 dam earned over $200K; this is her first to race; needs a turn around today.

In the Dark

At least runner tied his career Beyer in last but he wasn't scaring anybody; first time for sale, but maybe he belonged here all along as a $7500 purchase; things will have to unfold just right for this grinder.

Media Kid

Lack of speed a concern considering the cut back; she could find himself behind a wall of horses turning for home; runner has a shot to mature with grace as kin Go Between took a Grade 1 at 5 and earned nearly $3 million; the hotter the pace the better for this guy.

Shore Runner

Never kicked in last and he may have just disliked the grass; 3 for 5 dam took 2 stakes, banked over $100K; both siblings won multiple times; top kin Red Maserati earned almost $200K; carefully placed and the GP debut was far from a disgrace.

Master Jordan

Soph has teased a few times, but he s had his chances; beaten nearly 19 lengths the last time he was in a sprint; backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls completely apart.

Race 8

Get Gorgeous

Both wins during career were posted on today's AQU Inner Dirt surface which bodes well for her 1st race back here since January; graduated on the lead in 2011 at today's distance but has not raced in front since; stalker gets a new rider her 6th in the last 6 races which is not a good-win angle; the 3-back winner repeated with an 85 Beyer speed figure taking a BEL-optional claimer; the 4-back turf winner repeated with a 79 Beyer.

Maxana

0-for-8 record since claimed off her June-maiden breaker sprinting; just one race on AQU Inner Dirt was far off her best game in February finishing 8th in a 25K-maiden claimer; is 0-for-3 in races at 1Mile or longer however latest start racing at today's distance represents her best Beyer since August; have mixed feelings.

Milkyyourway

1st time during career where she will wear blinkers a 10%-win angle for the trainer; October, 2012, on a BEL-muddy track at 8.5F was her only win stalking the pace then drew off nicely; she finished evenly earlier this year over the track; the runner-up from last Beyered 69 in her next-out AQU-optional-claiming win.

Absolute Beauty

Returns to the surface of her only victory when flashing-big gate speed sprinting; 0-for-3 in races at 1 Mile or longer and the 8F distance is an obstacle to overcome; is another who flashed gate speed when showing her best form but has not been able to get out of the gate on top since; the 3-back runner-up and show finishers Beyered 80-69 in next-out BEL-optional-claiming wins.

Alwaysinmycircle

Speedster hopes to shake free early then keep on going; strong race off the 75-day layoff racing without blinkers where she flashed gate speed at today's distance then hung on well to beat Nonnie Connie; main concern is she has been best on turf and even though latest on dirt was good still has some convincing; the 3-back show finisher Beyered 63 in a next-out SAR-optional-claiming victory.

Bunhead

71 days since the turf loss; today marks her 1st-ever dirt start; 4%-winning fresh trainer does not help the confidence level that a big race off the bench is on the way; the 1st start vs. winners is often any runner's toughest-class assignment; the 3-back winner repeated in a BEL-20K claimer with a 71 Beyer; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Warmhearted Sandy

Even finish when defeated by Maxana in last leaves her ranked a notch below the top contenders for her return to AQU-Inner Dirt where the 0-for-7 exacta-less record does not bode well for this; new trainer yields just 10% winners with runners 1st time in the barn; her 2-back winner repeated with a 66 Beyer taking a BEL-20K claimer; she beat the 3-back runner-up finisher a next-out 59 speed figure FL-$4,500-claming winner.

Soul Opposition

0-for-4 record in races at 1M or longer during career noting her lone win was in the mud at shorter; shown nothing since the maiden breaker returning to AQU Inner Dirt where she ran well in defeat earlier this year; her Feb. exacta finish over the track looks better since beating the show runner who Beyered 53 in her next-out AQU-MSW win.

Nonnie Connie

Her field-best Beyer was accomplished on turf; 1-for-10 dirt record with the lone victory on a wet-main track; the runner-up finisher from last posted a 69 speed figure in her next-out AQU-optional claiming win; the October runner-up Beyered 63 in her next-out AQU-OPC victory.

Gloria Victoria

Makes her 1st start beyond 7F; her sire did not race past 7F; the dam did not compete in any races past 6.5F; graduated on the lead and figures as a major-pace presence again with Alwaysinmycircle; the 2-back winner repeated with a 75 Beyer taking an AQU alw; the July-SAR runner-up Beyered 76 in a next-out SAR-MSW score.

Miss Brass Bonanza

Both wins in 2013 on wet-race tracks; main concern is today's oval; she ended her 3-year-old campaign with the only other race on AQU inner Dirt a far-back fade at today's distance; if in races back in just 8 days 2nd time back off a 45-day absence; the trainer is 1-for the last-25 with this angle.

Westerday

Did not appear like she wanted any parts of route racing in last 3 races her only starts at 1 Mile or longer; loves this AQU Inner Dirt oval 4-of-4 in-the-money finishes here and a March-6F win in a 16K-maiden claimer; speedster has to outbreak Alwaysinmycircle and Gloria Victoria then keep on going; 0-for-9 record since claimed off a wet-track sprint win; the 3-back winner repeated in an FL-$4,500 claimer with a 52 Beyer.

Race 9

Ellen Dorene

Draws inside for her first crack over the inner and she did show improved early lick in new shades before fading last time; there's not much other speed signed on for this so expect she'll be rolling from here and the number she earned last time is the best on dirt of the bunch; they'll have her to catch and beat.

Signora Sofia

She's had plenty of chances and still hasn't been able to hit the board; statebred wasn't close in her loast on the main track and though some of her efforts over the inner last season were a little better, she still doesn't fit so well in here; looms another big price.

Christys Temper

After 8 career spins this Oklahoma bred has beaten just a handful of runners to the wire and her local return at 142-1 was little short of poor; the barn hasn't won a race this year and though they'll reach out for a capable bug, things don't appear to promising for her here.

Mini Muffin

New York bred showed some early foot last time, but wasn't able to go on late after arguing the slow fractions on the main track; expect she'll again be able to find a spot within striking range of the front runners early but she's shown little stamina in her 12 starts and don't know that things will get any better for her today; have to side with others on the win end.

Absolute Paradise

She's another who has certainly had her chances, but her last was a little better than her prior spin with fellow statebreds; filly showed 3 back at Belmont that she's capable of passing runners late and that could help her in here; worth a look in a weak field.

Dakota's Pick

Finished well out of it in her debut run on the main track and now she'll get Lasix; 6 year old has a right to be better with the initial experience behind her and her 8 time route winning dam did drop a couple of multiple sprint winners, but she's got a way to go off that debut to contend, even in here.

Locks of Gold

Tries dirt for the first time since Saratoga after being given a little extra time following an off the board turf spin; filly has shown a little bit of ability on the green and she doesn't catch a very tough bunch here; her 3 sibs to race are all main track sprint winners.

High Inflation

Sophomore has hit the board in 5 straight starts but her string of futility has now reached 16; she hasn't run as fast for this new barn but they have had a pretty nice year and maybe the return to the inner strip over which she ran well last season helps; probably again worth trying to beat, but she's a contender.

Estrange

Boasts a speed and fade line from her initial dirt start and now she'll move to the outside slot; filly has a right to be better second time over the footing, but her stamina has always been a question and though there's not a lot of lick in here, she'd have to earn this one from here.