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Aqueduct

Aqueduct: Closer Looks for April 5, 2014

DRF Staff|Apr 04, 2014

Race 1

Coldwater Flat
Moves for the fence for his second crack with winners after offering little on the inner last time; on numbers he is significantly slower than the rest of this bunch and there's not a lot to suggest a big move forward will be on tap; look of a longshot.
Joking
Beaten chalk had the hood removed when dropped to the level in his last out placing; maybe the added panel helps in a field that looks to contain a decent amount of early lick and this guys recent efforts do fit in here; one to consider at an improved price.
Stealth Steed
First part of the coupling rolled home on the drop in to face cheap conditioned claimers in his inner track finale; field's highest last out Beyer earner has yet to hit the board in 3 cracks over the local main track but he's pretty quick from the bell and draws inside what appears to be his main pace competition; figures tough right back.
Real Estate Rich
Barn's other half rolled home to score over cheaper when reclaimed by this outfit last month; lightly raced 4 year old returns in a protected spot which is a positive and though he picks up some weight in his first over the main track, his last was more than good enough to warrant him consideration here.
Denzel
Turns back to sprint off a second straight placing in his return to the inner track; 4 year old earned a big number when his late kick fell short at this trip 2 back at Laurel and he hit the board in both of his local main track sprints back in the fall; looks to be the one they'll have to hold off.
Brass Pear
Took this statebred 14 cracks to break his maiden and he needed an easy top through moderate splits to get the job done; showed some early foot in his first with winners but didn't have enough late and now he'll tackle open company; don't think he'll be around at the finish today.
Perfect Trippi
Local main track winner didn't have a lot to offer when stepped up off the gate to wire score over conditioned claimers on the inner; he does have speed and will likely be involved from the bell but following his early efforts don't know that he'll have enough to go on with these in the lane; prefer others for the top spot.
Conticinio
Outside drawn gelding has been a pretty popular claim of late and he'll step up for his first start for an outfit that does well with this type; 4 year old has shown there's a stalking gear here and with a top pilot taking the reins he could well be sitting that type of trip today; worth a look. - Steve Grabowski

Race 3

Zetterholm
Despite a poor winter campaign, this gelding must still be respected because of the new connections involved; has run well over this main track twice before and although 7 furlongs may not be his ideal distance, he remains a threat against this caliber.
Ravalo
A true warhorse and millionaire, he drops down to the lowest level in quite some time; pace-prompting type gets weight from most of his younger rivals and should be able to stay within range; an off-track would likely give him a decided advantage.
Street Thug
Proved to be another fine claim by Jacobson, as he controlled the issue throughout in his last pair of route scores; began his career at this tricky distance and might be able to continue the streak if not challenged early; spots valuable experience over the Big A main, however.
Bedouin Now
Defeated conditional claimers recently with a nice late burst but still believe he will arrive after the fact today; has never won at distances less than a mile and there may be inadequate pace today in the first place; minor spoils possible.
Sokitumi Samurai
Won a blanket finish a month ago against a lesser grade but the key thing is his consistent efforts at seven-eighths; although without a victory at the distance, he turned in respectable efforts each time; could prove the right value play in this puzzle.
In the Beat
Did not fare well in prior ventures over this main oval yet there are bright factors to consider including the sharp blowout of a week ago; earned his best Beyer at this trip but that was long ago and he has seen the winner's circle only once during the last 2 seasons; generous odds are certain. - Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Jack's R Wild
Lone win came in the cut back situation; he only beat 2 home the last time he broke from the fence; he's had plenty of chances at this level and with every defeat he becomes that much less attractive; another slice?
Here Comes Tommy
Face it, he just doesn't have the killer instinct; lone win came on the stretch out on grass; a distant 2nd in the best effort on this surface; tough to adore on top.
Wild Finish
Would expect this runner to have the stalking duties of the Ward runners; he may have just needed the last and note he was off poorly in the 2013 closer; clever move last Saturday; don't sell too short.
Dark Roast
Dirt to turf did the trick for the lone victory; bothered early in last and he backed out of it quickly like he didn't feel like competing; hustling bug takes reins, but this runner needs a major turn around.
Nearly There
This is a tough sell; he relished the mud for the last win but that was in a cheap spot and he has not been in the same zip code of a winner since; trainer tries to shake things up with blinks off, can't endorse.
Chilton
Only a brief threat on the stretch out in last; Ortiz got a chance to figure him out and the way he extended two back suggests he'll take to this distance; back in a hurry for barn that has spotted them just fine this year; look out.
Summer Place to Be
Back to Square One on the cut back; he just didn't seem to take to real estate; only a brief threat on the grass; winner 2 back won two stakes since; place horse 11/3 won twice since, the last in an optional claimer; fact he won the debut gives him a right to fire fresh.
Social Rebellion
Overcame bumping incident to win but has yet to be in the money since; okay, it was a stakes but he saw all the heels the last time on this surface; only a brief factor in last; could be looking at the same fate.
Freddie G
He proved agility when overcoming adversity in last; like the renewed energy he showed in the drill on Tuesday and barn is good with cut back runners; must be left in the mix.
Executive Office
Soph has fired every time; place horse in the last won cashed next out in a maiden $35K seller, was 2nd beaten 3 quarters in a $40K starter; show horse 1/27 took a maiden $16K claimer, lost next several; looms clever claim.
Ogermeister
The fact he won at first asking indicates he could be primed here; not disgraced in the stakes last year and the winner of last repeated in the $150K Bongard; this runner looks live. - Brian Mulligan

Race 6

Photon
Projects to stalk Elnaawi from the gate while saving ground; receives a negative 5-pound swing after defeating Metaurus in last; posted his 1 Mile-AQU Main career-best Beyer speed figure November, 2012, capturing a 30K claimer but in his last race over today's oval in November faded badly at shorter; others appeal more.
Snake Pit
Willing to dismiss his last 2 races on wet-main tracks both wins occurred on fast footing; 6 weeks away for a high-percentage fresh trainer who sends him to AQU Main for the 1st time; both wins on PRX dirt at 1 Mile; saves ground midpack then makes one run.
Metaurus
Expected a lot more run in each of his last 2 losses on fast footing where he is best; rematches with Photon getting a positive 5-pound weight swing off latest under 2-length loss; being winless on AQU Main does have bring a lot of confidence to the gate for this.
Gotham News
Working on dirt like he will love it; would likely be a major-pace factor if in; was listed as the 8-5 morning-line favorite as a Main Track Only entry on Friday traveling 1 Mile vs. much lesser at TAM in an allowance-optional claimer; freshened more than 1-year for a trainer 0-for-4 with 1st-time Imports since 2013.
Sliver and Onions
Speedster hopes to sit just off Elnaawi then get 1st run on the closers; 75 days since the beaten-betting favorite vs. the winner who repeated in an AQU-starter allowance with a 96 Beyer; he beat the 6th-place finisher from last an 88-Beyer next-out PRX-starter alw. winner; great sign that his career-best speed figure was posted in his AQU-Main One Mile November victory; contender.
Dewey Square
1st-time Johnny V on any Pletcher-trained runner is good news (4-for-8 combo at AQU since 2013); the barn also has Catron going uncoupled here who may press the speedy Elnaawi; exits a best-last-race Beyer racing 1st time with blinkers on when edged by a sharp gate-to-wire winner who competed in a Grade 3-GP event 1 week ago; seems the one to beat.
Ithastobegeorge
Exits a Maryland victory noting 7F has been the best distance during career; his only exacta finish in 3 races over today's AQU-Main oval was on a wet track; the 2-back winner repeated in an AQU-OPC with a 90 Beyer; will be siding with others.
This Hard Land
Lost the rider in latest while 2-back was defeated by this same bunch; today races with his highest-weight assignment since July; been best on wet ovals while today's AQU Main is projected as fast; would be a complete surprise.
Elnaawi
Returns to a fast-AQU Main oval for the 1st time since his Wood Memorial loss; both wins were on the lead and will be tough to catch today especially if Gotham News and Catron do not challenge from the gate; beat the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 90 in a next-out GP-OPC win; encountered trouble in last vs. Dewey Square where he lost his best chance racing in tight into the 1st turn instead of winging from the gate; new rider wins 41% for the trainer at AQU since 2013; try to catch the pick.
Balance of Power
Maryland-winning streak returning to AQU Main for the 1st time since December where he caught a wet track when clearly he's best on fast (5-for-8); was defeated by similar rivals in his last 2 New York starts so is ranked a notch below the top contenders.
Catron
Has not raced past 7F yet; G2-sire took 1-of-10 dirt routes (324K) a G3-MTH dirt Mile; is the 1st foal out of a 2-for-10 dirt-route dam (103K); exiting sprints may press Elnaawi early; uncoupled barnmate Dewey Square is the one he will have to hold off late; beat the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 86 in a next-out GP-OPC win.
Golden Itiz
Goes 1st off the purchase today for a 25%-winning trainer with this angle since 2013; the 4-0-1-1 fast-main track mark does not help the confidence level while drawing widest is sure to lose ground for this; field-best Beyer was posted on a synthetic surface at longer. - Art Gropper

Race 7

Archer Hill
Makes his first start since Saratoga where a change in tactics didn't play out so well for him on the green and subsequently sent him to the bench; gelding has experience at this local one turn mile but didn't have much to offer late in that one either; expecting he'll need one before we see his best anyway.
Escape to the Moon
Speedy colt turns back after showing solid route speed in each of his last 2 starts; slightly shorter trip in his return to one turn racing should help and the move inside figures to afford him a solid trip; first part of the barn's coupling is a contender.
Goodtolook
Gelding makes his return to this circuit after tiring in the Gulfstream turf route last month; his one turn mile score in the slop down there was huge and even if he's not really close to that good any moisture in the track will certainly help today; with a sharp recent blowout in tow he's a big threat.
Sunnyinseabrook
Picks up weight for another crack at the level after proving little match for some of these on the inner track; gelding has yet to run a number that fits with the best some of these have to offer; looms a long price in this spot.
Irish Moon
Ships back in here after offering little in the Laurel sprint prep off 9 months on the shelf; gelding has little early foot but maybe his last helped sharpen his lick to the point he sits a decent spot within striking range of the top early and he owns some one turn route numbers that fit in this spot; price will be right to give him a look while back in with statebreds.
Onecats Chance
Didn't have much of a shot while sitting a wide spot in his inner track finale after a couple of solid tries going long over the footing; addition of shades 2 back resulted in a career best Beyer effort and this guy did breeze last week like he deserves another shot.
Sideways Vision
Aired when allowed the lead from the fence and set moderate fractions along the way; he'll try both winners and older rivals for the first time in this spot and neither of his one turn route tries was much; presence of other lick drawn inside him says he'll need to settle and finish to be effective this time.
Testosterstone
Tracked and backed out of it when shades were added in his initial route attempt from which the winner has been ambitiously placed in today's G1 Wood Memorial; maybe the turn back helps and he does appear quick enough to secure a decent spot early, but he's yet to run fast enough to be considered a legitimate threat in here; prefer others.
Beyond Empire
Makes his first start in over 10 months for a barn that brings them back ready; he looked good breaking his maiden over the inner last winter and his subsequent one turn mile try against winners here wasn't bad; can excuse the poor turf try and he was used in pace as the chalk at Belmont before hitting the bench; maybe he's better next time, but he can't be overlooked here.
Sea to Sky
It's been a while since this guy's maiden score and he's had his stamina issues since trying winners; outside draw could again put him in a tough spot and this thrice beaten chalk will now pick up some weight; minor award figures to be his ceiling in this spot.
Piscesbymoonlight
Other half of the coupling starts from a tough draw after offering early lick and lasting for the place on the stretchout second back from the break; he has the same pilot named as his mate so only one will go; it's been a while since his maiden win but maybe his last is a sign he's getting back on track. - Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Charleymillionaire
Jersey-bred can run but he gets the acid test here; like fact he has some semblance of speed but hard to see him clearing here; fully extended in last in the hard drive but he can back with the bullet move 8 days ago; not sure he was beaten by anybody 2 back; the winner that day ran out of the money next out in the Caposella.
Oliver Zip
What's not to like?; he just fires every time and he got a boost somewhat when the show horse 2/21 cashed next out in a $40K starter with a 65 Beyer; versatile enough to win on or off the lead, he's in good hands and note place horse in last was over 4 clear; fits in the Beyer department; don't ignore.
Financial Mogul
Proven at this demanding distance, would expect him to settle, try to save ground, make the one run; he chased one tough customer in last and the Holy Bull show horse took the Risen Star and was 2nd beaten over 3 in Vicar's in Trouble LA Derby victory; dam dropped several successful routers including Grade 1 placed over $200,000 earner Bear in the Woods; figures in the picture late if at all.
Coup de Grace
Maybe he hated the rail last time; and he was forced to check to boot; he beat beat a promising horse in his debut as the place horse that day graduated at Fair Grounds next out by almost 12 lengths on a glib surface; winner of last returned with an off effort when 4th in the Florida Derby; there is speed inside and outside of him; that may not be the best of circumstances.
Loki's Vengeance
Bothered at the break and he just could not stay with the winner last time; the waters don't get any shallower here; he's already repaid his purchase price 3-fold and would expect him to have a nice career, but probably thriving vs. New York-breds.
Favorite Tale
Like the way he has extended his leads as he has hit the top of the lane of late; Beyers going in the right direction, he has the only 3-digit figure in the field but not sure he was beating anybody last time; the place horse in last won once, in a maiden $10K claimer with a 69 Beyer; must be respected as he has done everything asked.
The Admiral
Western interloper faced some nice horses early in his career and took awhile to break through but after graduating at this tricky distance of 7 furlongs, he was getting a little late in the last win; he has the pedigree that says star as sibling Dubai Escapade earned over $400,000 and top sibling Madcap Escapade took a Grade 1 on way to millionaire status; may like it here.
Kobe's Back
Don't be too harsh about last and he just may have hated the wet/fast strip; and he seems to want to sprint at this point anyway; his other poor effort came with trouble when beaten by Eclipse Award winner; there seems to be enough speed here to help promote the kick, he's drawn right and he has drilled fast and steadily for this; back at his game, he's the only Graded winner in the field; may not be a slam dunk, but he should give a very good account of himself. - Brian Mulligan

Race 9

Wraith
Improving form but light Beyer speed figures on display; she is ambitiously placed off latest-optional-claiming loss vs. Sweet Reason but gets a positive 4-pound weight swing for the rematch; the winner and runner-up finishers from her debut took LRL-100K (72 Beyer speed figure) and AQU-MSW wins next out (58); would be a surprise.
Got Lucky
Game to win the place photo as the winner was superb then followed that up with a 106 Beyer taking an FG-Grade 2 stakes next out; she is Grade 3-placed over the track as a 2-year-old defeating the show finisher who Beyered 68 in a next-out GP-optional-claiming win; is uncoupled with barnmate My Miss Sophia who may be the pacemaker as she saves ground them makes one run; the pick.
Sweet Reason
Races for the 1st time today over the AQU Main while exiting a career-low Beyer; the light number was a victory 1st time out following more than a 5-month layoff and is expected to improve; is trying to remember her 2-year-old field-best Beyer sprinting in the SAR slop but is expected back on fast footing here; Grade 1-two-year-old beat the 3-back show runner who Beyered 78-77 in next-out AQU-G2 and G3-stakes wins.
My Miss Sophia
In a field lacking gate speed she may go to the front here and play catch me if you can; exits a best-last-race Beyer when toying with GP maidens but expected to romp as the 1-2 odds-on choice; Pletcher's other runner here Got Lucky gets Johnny V and will be flying late at her.
Vero Amore
There just isn't much gate speed signed on here so projects to be a major-pace presence with My Miss Sophia; the 3-back winner repeated in an AQU-100K stakes with a 73 Beyer; exits her best-ever speed figure at her homebase PRX vs. the boys; know her early but unsure about late.
Bird Maker
1st-time blinkers (10%-win angle from her trainer since 2013) after being outrun in a key race; the winner and 8th-place finishers from last Beyered 90-79 in next-out GP-G2 and AQU-OPC wins; showed potential in her Golden Rod runner-up as a 2-year-old; must show more to post the upset here off 2-double-digit length defeats to begin her 3-year-old campaign. - Art Gropper

Race 10

Kid Cruz
Late runner has been on the improve since claimed by this barn out of his impressive local maiden score in the fall; he'll get yet another new pilot while returning from Laurel where he rolled home going last to first at this trip in his stakes debut; field's lone 9 panel winner doesn't draw a post that fits his style well, but there figures to be no shortage of pace today so if he breaks well he can have a say in the lane.
Wicked Strong
Third place finisher in last fall's local G2 Remsen was just a half length off 2 of the country's more impressive juveniles in that heat but neither of them nor this guy has moved forward too much this season; maybe the change in scenery helps and he has been working well in Florida since running into the subsequent G1 Florida Derby winner in a Gulfstream allowance heat, but he's got a lot of moving forward to do in order to threaten these.
Noble Moon
Lightly raced colt took a G2 route stake over the inner this winter while making just his third career start and has been idle for 3 months since; he's one of several in here with early interest and they've been working him long of late to help improve his stamina; though he wasn't in with much, like the way he settled early in the Jerome score and he does have a right to keep getting better but he catches some good ones today.
Harpoon
Gray took well to 2 turns when stretched out at Tampa a couple of months back but had little to offer behind a couple of these in the G3 Gotham; his numbers are on the improve, though, and maybe the promise of a quick early clip helps motivate his late kick while also getting an added half panel; have to respect the trainer/jockey combo in lucrative heats and this colt did breeze sharply before leaving his Palm Meadows base; worth a look.
Los Borrachos
Didn't face much in his local debut but he did get the job done after running into some decent ones in the maiden ranks out West; while he should appreciate today's added trip the sharp barn picks a tough spot in which to try winners for the first time and have to doubt he'll be up to the move forward he'd need to have a say in the outcome; have to side against the repeat.
Kristo
Santa Anita shipper couldn't go with the impressive California bred winner of the G2 San Felipe in his return from the freshening and now he'll give the East coast a shot; he worked quite well prior to getting on a plane for this but have to question whether he's one who gets better as the distances increase; he's never failed to hit the board so maybe he factors for a share but we'll side with others on the win end.
Schivarelli
Hard to argue with any undefeated runner as he's basically done all that's been asked of him and this guy has shown some versatility; initial route spin on the inner was pretty good and he's had plenty of time off as well as quick interim drills in order to prepare him for this task; big concern is that his pedigree may limit the ability for him to get better as he starts to go longer.
Samraat
The first of the dynamic New York bred duo signed on for this heat remained perfect from 5 starts by defeating the other for the second time in a row in the G3 Gotham; he boasts a sharp tracking gear and though he draws inside his familiar foe this time, he still figures to be able to work out a solid trip; with some long interim morning moves in him he appears well prepared for this G1 try; main danger.
Effinex
Looked good upsetting statebred allowance runners over the inner a couple of weeks back and now he'll try the G1 stakes ranks; colt has little problem settling and making a late run and the pace in front of him figures to be solid but he'd probably need it to completely collapse in order to have a legitimate shot at factoring today; have to pass on him here.
Uncle Sigh
Just missed getting to his rival Samraat when switching to this journeyman pilot for the Gotham over the inner last month; colt has but a maiden score to his credit but it was a very impressive initial win and in each of his subsequent graded stakes routes he ran well enough to find the winner's circle; maybe the move outside helps him relax some and finish and he couldn't have worked much better the other day for this; contender.
Social Inclusion
Undefeated colt took it to the highly regarded and since sidelined Honor Code when stretched out for the first time at Gulfstream in just his second career start, earning an eye popping number in the process; yes, inside speed was good that day and has always aided performances over that track, but bias or not, the number he earned was top notch and he's returned to breeze rather sharply, suggesting the effort didn't take all that much out of him; he'll try stakes runners and his speed will be challenged from the extreme outside slot, but today's the day we should find out whether he's just a nice racehorse or a freak; one to catch and beat at a short price. - Steve Grabowski

Race 11

Central Banker
Proven fresh and not disgraced in the other Grade 1 efforts; 6th finisher in last took a $65K Tampa stakes next out and the winner repeated in the G2 Strub with a 101 Beyer; this guy should have a nice career as kin to Gantry, a G2 winner and over $800K player; he was inching toward the winner in last but with his style, he may have to invent a trip.
Clearly Now
Some speedballs have won this race and it produced a triple dead heat for win in 1944; last year Swagger Jack cut back after running second in the GP 'Cap to win inching away with a 105 Beyer; note he won on the cut back at this very distance last year; can't be dismissed.
Golden Ticket
If you figure he just needed his last, there is no reason why he will not move forward; note show horse was over 6 clear in last and the winner flattered this pro by cashed next out in the 'Orleans 'Cap with a 114 Beyer; off rail and backers have to hope a speed duel develops and the race falls apart.
Dads Caps
He's a serious horse but this is his toughest test to date; there are stamina issues; he has lost ground in the lane in his last 6 efforts; barn has been winning everything that is not nailed down of late, but this runner may need the race of his life to cash today.
Strapping Groom
The experience of 9 wins may have helped this runner beat arch-rival on direct inside in last; the class is there off the Forego win last year; he handles any kind of going, can win on or off the lead and Ortiz has a clue to what's under the hood now; threepeat well within the scope.
Sahara Sky
Hollendorfer doesn't venture out of town all that often so fact he's here speaks volumns; he used the exact same preps for this guy last year before the 2nd in the race; and note he didn't get the best of trips that day; never out of the money at this trip; revenge a nice motive today.
Saturday's Charm
Veteran brings back a lot of checks, just doesn't seem all that keen on winning; last win came in the conditioned claimer and he is facing some high quality runners here; just handled by a couple of today's foes; passing. - Brian Mulligan

Race 12

Crescent Street
Unfortunately, he draws the rail again after stumbling from this post in his debut; his sire, a G1 sprinter, won 831K; the dam won 5 of 21 and 196K; among the winning siblings is 80K earner Crescent's Mon; pass for now.
Station Chief
Beginner turned in a fine breeze on the morning of 3/15; his sire won multiple G3s and 532K overall (progeny of Disco Rico have won 10 percent of their initial starts); the dam won 1 of 20 and 44K; sib to 98K earner Report Back.
Salisbury Knight
Never fired first time out at Gulfstream but the race itself was fast (the winner of that one, Little Daddy, came back to Beyer an 84 in an optional claimer); this colt's sire won multiple G1s and 3.06 million; the dam was unraced; sib to 302K winner Willard Street.
My Terms
Moderate work tab for this newcomer whose sire won multiple G1s and 4.91 million (descendants of Utopia are 6 for 142 as far as winning their first test); the dam was zero for 14; winning sibs include 269K earner Hoosick Falls.
Latigo Trail
Never really got going over the inner dirt surface; the latest workout over the training track, a vast improvement, suggests he might fare much better with the switch to the main oval; a square price is certain.
Stenson
Endured a difficult trip in his maiden voyage last month; the grey's sire won 1 of 12 attempts and 44K while the mom won 3 of 19 and 138K; among the winning siblings is 198K bankroller Lauren's Tizzy.
Greg's Intuition
Curious import from Philadelphia adds blinkers and exits a race where he was involved with a pressured pace (losing to a 1 to 5 winner); see previous runner for same sire info; the dam won 4 of 16 and 116K; this is her only foal to compete; playable.
Stardom
See Stenson, above, for information about the same sire (progeny of Freud have won 40 of 359 debuts); this colt's dam never raced; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate; note very fine gate breeze last week.
Captain Serious
Weekly intervals to the workout pattern for this gelding who has superior off-track breeding; his sire won multiple G2s and 654K (descendants of Successful Appeal have scored in 15 percent of their first attempts); the dam won 1 of 10 and 64K; sib to 62K earner Dr. Copper.
Lyrical Miracle
Flashed brief speed in his first test last month when losing to a blowout winner; his sire won 5 of 18 and 186K; the dam lost her only start and this is her sole foal to compete; switches to apprentice handling.
Reaction Rate
Newcomer hails from Wild Desert who won 3 of 20 and 1.04 million (his offspring are zero for 55 as far as winning their first assignment); the dam won 6 of 45 and 106K; among the winning sibs is 75K earner Zekes Surprise.
Slew's Brew
Must deal with difficult post and layoff; he raced evenly on a very wide path in that Belmont getaway race last year; has shown a bit of early speed thus far but will likely be hung out to dry this afternoon; cannot be given the main vote. - Jim Kachulis

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