Aqueduct
Aqueduct: Closer Looks for April 25, 2014
Race 1
| Elmra |
| Lightly-raced 3-year-old just missed in her debut and the horse that beat her came back to win a $75K optional race for state breds with a 79 Beyer Speed Figure; this gal scored an easy win in a key race in her second start and she came back with a couple of sharp works; she owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field, is the second foal out of a mare that placed in a Grade 3 in Europe, and should have plenty of upside potential; the rail could be an issue but she just seems too talented for these; the pick. |
| Maxana |
| She has won sprinting and that was a good effort going a mile in her latest so 7-furlongs could be a good distance for her; horse that won her last two is a 5-time winner with $192K in earnings; a wet track will help her chances and adding to her appeal is her very hot trainer; the top pick is going to be tough to beat but can see her rounding out the exacta. |
| Kiss Cat |
| Paid a nice price when she won a $25K n/w/2 in her latest while posting her career-best Beyer Speed Figure; looks like she's heading in the right direction and she is a half-sister to Kiss and Fly who won 13 races and earned $243K so she probably hasn't reached her peak; her new trainer wins races at a solid clip but the past five years is 0/13 with new shooters. |
| Fee and Sugar |
| Claimed out of her latest but Persaud who the past five years has an 11 percent strike rate running them back the first time; third in her latest but she wasn't much of a threat to the winner and she was running against $16K n/w/2; this is clearly a tougher spot and she will need to improve quite a bit to make a serious impact; prefer others. |
| Kate Is a Ten |
| She comes out of the same race as Maxana but it isn't encouraging that she finished 13 lengths behind her; it is possible she didn't care for the muddy surface but she's been looking for her second win for a while now and for the most past she's been facing conditional claimers; looking elsewhere. |
| Lady Luciano |
| She forced an honest pace before tiring going a slightly longer distance in her latest and other than Elmra there doesn't appear to be a lot of other speed; no obvious excuses two back but maybe she'll be the one they have to catch here and if she can clear early she could hang around long enough to pick up a slice. - Randy Goulding |
Race 3
| White Pants Night |
| Back to dirt following a couple of tries on the lawn and her last race on the main track at Calder was a good one; the horse that finished third won a $75K optional race at Gulfstream in her next start with a 79 Beyer Speed Figure and the last-place finisher won a $25K claimer at Gulfstream with a 78 Beyer; Serpe has a positive ROI with recent claims running back the first time; some things to like. |
| Violet Hour |
| Toss her debut across the pond and she hasn't been worse than third in six starts; she was no match for even-money favoriite Henry's Gal who was coming off a narrow loss in a $75K optional race for state breds but this looks like an easier group; she appears to be a serious player in a wide-open event. |
| Tizarocket |
| Won her first start wearing blinkers for Rodriguez who claimed her for $50K two back but it has taken her two months to make it back; encouraging to see that she returns in a spot where she can't be claimed and she may have tipped her hand when she fired a bullet April 14; first time with winners is never easy but she could take a big step forward in her second try with blinkers; playable. |
| Dear to All |
| Nice win in a $25K n/w/2 two back but then she ran into Henry's Gal in her next start; not a bad effort, though, and after pressing the issue early she finished less than two lenghts behind Violet Hour; she also may have bounced following her sharp win; expect her to be involved early and it wouldn't be surprising to see her in the mix late; consider for the exotics. |
| Flaring |
| Reunited with Maragh who was aboard for her only win and she should appreciate the move back to a sprint after trying a middle distance for the first time; this will be her first time facing older fillies and mares, though, and if she is going to contend she will need to improve on her career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 60; prefer others. |
| Two Blue Hens |
| She's kind of a mystery coming from Southern California following a dull effort in a $25K claimer restricted to 4-year-olds; claimed by Levine who can move them up and maybe having her slow down in the mornings will help her show more in the afternoons; her best races have been on turf and synthetics but she did win on dirt and she should have an honest pace to work with here; the pick. - Randy Goulding |
Race 4
| Paris Sunshine |
| Worked sharply the other day for the move back in with older after her second weak effort since taken by this barn; filly does have some speed and maybe that helps make her prominent from the inside slot on the stretchout; dam was a SP router who has dropped a couple of route winners so maybe the added trip helps and there's not a whole bunch in here. |
| Halos and Angels |
| Tries the level again after failing to offer much late from a wide spot on the turn back last week; gray hasn't shown much stamina at all thus far so the added ground is a question, but her last number was better and if she's able to run back to it that would be enough to make her a threat. |
| Eva Lil |
| Gets a weight concession with the big named for her 32nd career spin; her last few spins here leave a lot to be desired and her local slate overall is not too impressive; tough to take a positive view of her on the win end. |
| Lady C Note |
| She's another statebred trying open company on the stretchout here; filly has shown a little bit of route lick so wouldn't be surprised to see her a little closer to the top this time and she's the recipient of a significant weight break with the triple bug getting aboard, but she hasn't been going the right way of late; minor award will likely prove her ceiling. |
| Dakota's Pick |
| Lightly raced 7 year old hasn't been close at the finish of any of her 3 sprints starts and now she'll try a longer one turn heat in her return to the local main track; while she did breeze ok at her base last weekend, the barn hasn't won a race yet this year and they've had no recent luck with runners second back from the break; have to pass on this longshot. |
| Patriot's Jewel |
| She drew the fence against fellow statebreds last time and after showing little early didn't have much to offer at all; gray earned a couple of competitive numbers against restricted foes prior to that but still wasn't much of a threat to the winner; maybe the equipment change helps as she catches a weak bunch, but it's tough to get excited about her chances in here. |
| Fancy 'n Flight |
| She ran well going a bit longer at this level 2 back and encountered some trouble when back in with statebreds last time; filly finds a spot in which she fits ok from a figure standpoint and a bounceback type of effort figures to put her in the mix; consider. |
| Miss Red Cloud |
| Outside drawn filly stretches out a panel off a decent third place finish when dropped to the level last time; her better tries have come going long so today's added panel does figure to benefit her and given the lack of lick signed on have to think her new pilot has her more involved from the bell; she's the one they'll have to beat. - Steve Grabowski |
Race 5
| Mister Popsicle |
| Sire wins with approximately 16% of his turf starters and dam was winless from four starts, and she didn't make a turf start; this colt is a 1/2 to stakes winner Lulu Wong (4-16, 177k, including 1 of 2 turf starts for 28k); he has some early speed, but this is his first start against winners, his first start routing, and his first start over turf. |
| Camden Street |
| Half-brother to stakes winner Kilderry (4-13, 178k over turf) has already shown us that he has ability to work with and he has to be respected as a legitimate contender while making only his second start as a 3-year-old; top connections help add further appeal. |
| Balderdash |
| His form racing over turf against NY-bred competition as a 2-year-old was solid and he is out of a multiple stakes winning dam who won 6 of 24 starts for 289k, including 5 of 18 turf starts for 238k; winner from latest won next out here on 2/1 going 1 1/16m in a G3 with a 94 Beyer and third finisher won next out here on 1/31 going 1m vs. 75k OPC's with a 76 Beyer. |
| Steve |
| He was a sharp winner two starts back over the Gulfstream Park turf course while earning a competitive Beyer Speed Figure, but it would have been nice to have seen him show more in his latest outing when making his first start away from the Fawkes barn; leaning toward others. |
| Belly of the Whale |
| He's done little wrong in his first two starts and this will be his first attempt in a turf route; Peachtree-homebred adds Lasix for his first start as a 3-year-old and this is a barn that is capable of having one ready for a top try after a layoff; obvious threat. |
| Mental Iceberg |
| Like to see him making his first turf start since his career debut, and if you take away a couple of graded stakes attempts, he hasn't run a bad race; that was an impressive effort for a 2-year-old first-time starter going 1 1/16m and it isn't unrealistic to expect better from him in his first turf start as a 3-year-old. |
| J to the Croft |
| Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and multiple G1 stakes placed dam won 3 of 14 starts for 295k, including 1 of 2 turf starts for 27k; turf and distance are concerns, but he was a sharp winner in his career debut while earning a strong Beyer Speed Figure. |
| Village Warrior |
| There's some sharp dirt form signed on in this spot, but this Repole-owned colt has seen his form improve with the addition of blinkers and a repeat of his latest effort can place him squarely in the mix. |
| Maximus Decimus |
| He's clearly capable of better than what he showed in his latest outing, and perhaps it was simply a case of him needing a race in his first start back from a layoff; however, he will need his best performance to date to get over on the top contenders in here. |
| Bay of Plenty |
| All three of his starts have been quality ones and he stepped it up nicely along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in his latest outing to earn his first career win; he'll command respect in his first start against winners if he gets to go in this spot; he's a 1/2 to G1 stakes placed Fortify (2-8, 323k); Ortiz has won with 7 of 16 (44%) mounts for this barn in 2014. - Brian Pochman |
Race 6
| Candy Portena |
| Cozy slot this time after getting forced wide; the winner of last flattered him when he repeated in a $40K optional with a 69 Beyer; a well beaten 2nd the last time she broke from the rail; must hurry. |
| Miadora |
| Ghostzapper about 9% with debuters in a 236-runner sample; sire took juvenile debut by 9 with a 99 Beyer, was 2004 Horse of the Year; 2 for 5 dam earned nearly $40K; lone half bro Fightertown took 2 of 15, earned nearly $60K; respect everything from this barn. |
| Predicate |
| Freshened since okay GP efforts; she exited the live race two back and the show horse in last graduated next out at this level with an 80 Beyer; connections hoping she starts acting like top kin and near $100K earner Thankfulness; back to the original pilot; has to show more. |
| Rosemarie |
| Maybe mare didn't care for the good surface in last; even after the decent 2nd two back, fans went the other way to the tune of 35-1 and they were dead right; tough to pull the trigger after the last effort. |
| J. Quirk |
| Debut was solid considering the winner was clear and miss was clear in the process; hung wide last time from slot 10 but the race came back okay; the place horse took a MSW and the 12th finisher took a maiden $50K claimer; 1 for 8 dam earned almost $20K; both siblings won including 3 for 6 racer and $70K earner Srikinglybeautiful; repeat of the debut puts her right on the line. |
| Magsamelia |
| A tad short in the debut but she has trained steadily for this; 4th and 6th finishers won in this league next out and the winner was a well beaten 3rd in the Grade 1 Spinaway; dam took debut at 2, lost next 4; both siblings won twice, both earned just under $50K; fresh and very dangerous. |
| It's Macaroni |
| City Zip about 15% with debuters in a 556-runner sample; sire earned over $725K sprinting; dam just one for 14; it came on grass; this is her first to race; could need experience. |
| Hanalei Hailey |
| She lost best chance at the draw last time when she landed in post 12; she has much more speed than she just flashed; stakes placed 3 for 12 dam earned nearly $300K; several multiple race winners in the family including stakes placed near $175K earner Scampering; toss last and she's a major threat. |
| Smashing |
| Educated in sprint debut and note she was over 16 clear; 4 for 21 dam earned over $100K; family is solid; all 7 siblings won including double stakes winner and near $250K earner Holiday Runner; the one to deny. - Brian Mulligan |
Race 8
| Stormin Monarcho |
| Draws the fence for his local debut while going first time for an outfit that excels with this type; gelding ran big in a one turn mile heat in Florida before being given a little extra time to get over that career best effort; expect he'll be able to find a good spot early in a field that doesn't contain a lot of front end speed but he'll need to run back to that last one to prove a threat on the win end here. |
| Cougar Ridge |
| Fresh 4 year old ran big when sent long in his lone local main track try late last fall; he was caught arguing the fractions down inside in the Laurel mud prior to the break and maybe an aggressive ride by his new pilot helps him get in the game early here as well; don't know that he's as good as some of these, though. |
| Dawly |
| First part of the coupling fights hard all the time and his graded stakes try last time was the first time he'd been off the board in a long while; he likes one turn trips so the turn back to a flat mile should agree with him and the softer company could make all the difference today; one to beat. |
| Don Dulce |
| Should be better with his first crack off this outfit's claim behind him and he figures to like the class relief here but he did finish well behind the guy drawn to his immediate inside here last out; gray's one turn tries put him right in the thick of this one but his more recent slate suggests he may be best used underneath in exotics. |
| Aussi Austin |
| They dropped him in for a tag in his return for the freshening and got the money, but they lost the asset and the class relief looked to get him some confidence back; new barn does a great job with its newly claimed runners and they'll get him the weight break with the capable bug named; 6 year old faces a much tougher task today, but he scored 2 back at Laurel at this configuration and enters this in solid form. |
| Summer Sunset |
| Five year old has solid tactical foot and almost always grabs a share but he'll be making his first start in nearly a full year in this spot; he's run pretty well fresh in the past so have to think he's set to give a good account of himself, but he'll catch a nice bunch in this spot and may just be better with this one behind him; can get involved in pace here and maybe that helps him last; consider. |
| North Ocean |
| Barn's other half steps up seeking his third straight score after a solid inner track season; he'll tackle one turn here and though he's handled it well before, he has been better at 2 turn trips; has early foot does figure to have him in a good spot from the bell in here, though; completes an appealing entry. |
| Irsaal |
| He's in for the optional tag after being given time off since the popular score against a softer set in his inner track finale; gray goes for a solid fresh outfit but he'll get a new rider for this as his last out pilot sides with the guy next to him in the gate; his best certainly gives him a chance but he hasn't run particularly well over the local main track. - Steve Grabowski |
Race 9
| Sea Isle Sandy |
| Sire is 1-for-36 with 1st-turf starters; 7-for-127 with debut runners; is out of a 1-for-5 dam (23K) who went 0-for-1 on turf finishing 11th in a 1Mile-grass event; she graduated in her 2nd start at 6F on SAR dirt; she produced 4 winners from 5 other foals to race; 3 foals to race on turf are 0-for-6 combined. |
| Willow U |
| Also eligible at 5-1 morning-line odds for a Wednesday race at longer than this; great sign that her best race of career was on AQU turf; in her only grass attempt was edged by the show finisher who posted 78-69 Beyer speed figures in 2 next-out GP wins. |
| Eddy's Time |
| Would be more concerned about the long absence but she fired very well following a shorter layoff in her 2nd-career start when just missing; the worktab and the trainer's 7%-win mark with fresh starters suggests she may need a race to see very-best form; scary if ready. |
| Annie Walker |
| Exits a best-last-race speed figure when outrun on GP grass vs. open company; today she faces NY-breds for the 1st time; the 4th and 8th-place finishers from last Beyered 72-70 in next-out GP-MSW wins; the 3-back winner repeated in a CRC-allowance with a 76 speed figure; her late-running style fits the added yardage; adding blinkers in hopes of showing better tactical speed from the gate; a lot of upside even though 3-year-old makes her 1st start vs. older rivals. |
| Crazy Over Easy |
| Projects to be a pace presence with Jilly Mac as they both stretchout their sprint speed; today is this 3-year-old's 1st start vs. older rivals; was troubled from the gate in last but expect her to be flying early for this; sire is 46-for-330 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-for-7 dam (31K) who went 0-for-1 on turf finishing 5th in an ELP-grass-allowance event; 1 foal raced on turf (0-for-1). |
| Kelly's Prize |
| Today is this 3-year-old's 1st start vs. older rivals; she simply has been best sprinting; off latest loss to Willow U is not easy to take; scheduled for turf today she was 6-1 morning-line odds as a Main Track Only entry for a Wednesday race at longer than this. |
| Shewreckstheplace |
| 7th-place finish in a BEL-MSW June turf loss was the last time she did not race in a maiden claimer leaping way up in class for this; exits her best Beyer since October when catching a wet-main track; would be a surprirse at this elevated grade. |
| Myfriendthebird |
| Sire is 4-for-105 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-for-8 grass dam (26K) who produced 6 turf winners from 10 foals to attempt North American green including G3-SW Incurable Optimist (4-for-4 turf 260K); is bred all over for grass on the dam's side so see lots of upside for an improved 2nd attempt. |
| Jilly Mac |
| Projects as a major pace player up top with Crazy Over Easy; was claimed for this racing 1st off the purchase and going right to the grass course; sire is 10-for-171 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal from a dam who posted a 3-0-0-1 grass record; the debut winner repeated in an AQU-starter alw. with a 72 Beyer. |
| Royal Jest |
| Trying to remember her October-career debut field-best Beyer speed figure; raced well in defeat when last seen chasing the winner who repeated in an AQU-alw. with a 60 Beyer; was favored when stretched out to longer in a November-exacta finish on AQU green; has been working well for this; looms a logical contender for win honors. |
| Legally Bay |
| Main Track Only entry was 6-1 morning-line odds as a MTO entry for a Wednesday race at longer than this; good one in latest posting her best Beyer in almost one year; great sign that she's saved her very-best form and speed figures for today's AQU Main. - Art Gropper |