Aqueduct
Aqueduct: Closer Looks for April 24, 2014
Race 1
| The Iron Furnace |
| Good news is that the results are trending the right way - 4th, 4th, 3rd; bad news is that even though he ran 3rd at this level over this track at this trip April 4 he was no factor in the lane (beaten 15 1/4 lengths); at least has a feel for the track and trip but his Beyer actually regressed quite a bit; 3 sibs have yet to win from 4, 8 and 14 starts, respectively; still, the weakness of this field may mean he's actually favored in here. |
| Marlins Wonder |
| Debut 4th wasn't too bad particularly when you note it was just his debut and a slow start didn't help; nice to see no layoff since and no drop after that, and Esler (2 for first 4, 50%, this meet) adds Lasix; still, he's a 3yo facing elders and that's no small hurdle this early in the season; 3 sibs to race have yet to win from 1, 4 and 24 starts, respectively. |
| Hunter Grey |
| Like the rail horse the results are surely trending the right way but also like the reail horse, while he ran 3rd on this track at this trip at this level last time he was no factor in the lane (beaten 11 1/4 lengths); did show good speed and was still it it at the eighth pole; bulelt work since on April 11 encourages, too; lone sib has 1 3rd from 6 starts for over $1K. |
| Yo Bro |
| Tough to be too enthused; yet to be a factor really at any point in 3 starts; does come out of a key heat (2 next-out winners) but he was last beaten 64 lengths at 54-1 so he doesn't really deserve bonus points for exiting a key heat; also, that was over 2 months ago and vs. cheaper, so there's a layoff to deal with, and while these aren't monsters it's still a class hike. |
| Uragano |
| Hard to build much of a case; did run 3rd on this track at this trip last time, yes, but he was no factor in the lane (beaten 12 lengths); at least showed a hint of improved speed and that was a step forward and it came in his first try on this track so maybe he prefers the big oval; but he's up in price today and has plenty of work to do to be a factor even vs. these. |
| It Was All Good |
| Boy, somebody's got to win this race, right?; sure hard to take a stance with anyone in this bunch and this guy is no difference; a couple no-factor 5ths of late, and he was beaten by a couple of today's rivals in those outings, too; at least has a hint of speed and apprentice Davis was aboard 3 of the runners in here last time and ends up staying here, so maybe there's something to be read into that - or not. - Michael Hammersly |
Race 3
| Trace Screen |
| Coupled with Vona; sire Lemon Drop Kid gets over 8% debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 10 of 24 for $3.2 million, won G1 Futurity, G1 Belmont, G1 Travers, G1 Whitney, G1 Woodward, multiple G2 SW and multiple G1 SP; unraced dam has 1 winner from 2 foals to race, Boulder Creek (3 wins, $87K); works are steady, though the month gap in there (Feb. 22-March 21) gives some cause for pause. |
| Brendan G |
| Been knocking on the door since last summer; put up a bit of a clunker here April 12 but remember, too, that came vs. straight maidens; he's back in for a tag today, and in fact he's never been in for a tag this low so that could be key; speed to be in it from the start; all 6 sibs to race are winners including Electrical Carlita (14 wins, $483K) and Fortune's Praise (6 wins, $96K, SP). |
| Mach Seven |
| It was a tad disheartening that his original owners bought him for $130K but after one race and a long layoff they were willing to part with him for $16K - and in fact these connections snatched him up; hasn't run badly since but nothing that really gets the pulse racing; does have some speed and there's a work since he dcueled and raded to 4th for $20K on the inner last month; lone sib is Zip Cat (2 wins, $59K). |
| Run Logan Run |
| Yet to make much of a dent in 4 starts; what's worse is all 4 came vs. cheaper; in fact, he's doubled in value today after failing to threaten $12,500 foes; best finish was 4th on this track April 6 but he was no factor as he was beaten 11 lengths and finished nearly that far behind today's foe Samurai Assualt, who was 2nd that day; 4 of 5 sibs are winners including this guy's full-sis Gottcha Chu Chu (3 wins, $54K). |
| Vona |
| Coupled with Trace Screen; been knocking on the door and it's noteworthy those good efforts have come vs. tougher straight maidens, so today he takes the most important drop in the game; he's still a 3yo facing elders so that's a hurdle but today's drop may help offset that; tired some late when 3rd here April 2 but that was his first outing in over 2 months so he figures tighter and maybe tougher today; still, they paid $275K for him at auction just last year and now they're willing to part with him for less than 1/10th that amount; lone sib is Cheers n' Humor (2 wins, $15K). |
| Samurai Assault |
| Very nice 2nd for $12,500 here April 6; not only did he nearly win but he finished well clear of 3rd (though the 3rd horse was Keyaly, who's now 0 for 55); very nice to see that Persaud not only saw fit to claim him (13% off a claim) but now DOUBLES him in value; has speed to be in it from the start; 2 sibs are Burning Mandate (11 wins, $198K) and Burnum (3 wins, $182K, G3 SP in Canada). |
| Golden Doc |
| Showed more speed in his last 2, though those came routing (we're sprinting today) and he hit the brakes pretty hard in each; finished 6th now in all 3 starts, though in his defense all that work came vs. tougher; so, he drops again today which may help...though the drop didn't help much last time (March 20), did it?; all 4 sibs are multiple winners including Brush Creek Honey (5 wins, $146K). |
| Tony D |
| 3 of last 4 weren't bad - the 3 good ones all came when he ran for a tag (and all tags higher than this) and the 1 dull run came vs. straight maidens; moves down further on the claiming scale and maybe that can help; does have a few Beyers which he's able to reproduce would put him right in the mix; cost a pretty penny at auction ($400K) but ran for about 1/10th that ($45K) in his debut last May and was claimed...and now these owners are willing to part with him for almost half that; 5 of 9 sibs to race are winners including Composure (4 for 8, $731K, won G1 SA Oaks, G1 Las Virgenes, was G2 SW, 2nd in G1 BC Juv. Fillies) and Ready Set (won 7 of 35, $807K, G3 SW, multiple G3 SP). - Michael Hammersly |
Race 4
| Mama Zee |
| Seems a much better runner over the Big A main compared to the inner dirt surface; survived pace pressure to win her last and can now reverse the defeat 2 back by My Donna Jean if breaking alertly; the trainer continues his hot streak and this daughter of pure sprinter J Be K figures prominently. |
| My Donna Jean |
| Only one non-exacta finish since being claimed last November and that was at the atypical 5.5 furlong distance; had a very fine trip when defeated Mama Zee in March and may not have that luxury this afternoon; still warrants serious exotic wagering inclusion. |
| Amulay |
| Controlled throughout in her last soft-paced route score but this distance remains a cause for concern; still must factor in the strong win percentage of the trainer/jockey combination involved; needs clear rallying path. |
| Magma (GB) |
| This mare was clearly trounced by some of these same foes last month and a sudden turning of the tables just does not seem in the cards; wheels back quickly but will not likely benefit by the pace that will unfold here; 2 of her 3 lifetime victories have been at the mile. |
| Darnley Bay |
| Beaten favorite has been under the care of trainer Levine before and in her only attempt at today's distance was compromised by a light pace and wide trip; can be a late factor against this caliber and the odds should be more generous; worth some follow-up. |
| Manero |
| Statebred has done all of her best running over the turf and this race looks like a stepping stone in that direction; failed to show much endurance in her only known main track assignment and, even with the weight concession from the entire field, cannot be given a serious recommendation. |
| Morethanvictorious |
| Rested since an all-out score when beating one of today's primary contenders, this mare turned in a fine recent workout; that can enable her to shake off the rust and make a strong late charge; ran very well in her sole course and distance effort. |
| Your Move |
| Ultra-consistent filly has only one running style and the only Achilles heel may be her tendency to drift; has won over various surfaces and that versatility stamps her as one of the main threats in this event; will prove dangerous if able to clear all the inside speed in the first furlong. |
| Very Cherry Candy |
| Might have been best last month when losing narrowly to Your Move but unfortunately draws outside of that key rival today; will be the beneficiary of the swifter half-mile fraction that seems a certainty today unless there are key late scratches; winning connections a definite plus. - Jim Kachulis |
Race 5
| Al's Gal |
| Even if it was against maiden claimers, have to respect the improvement she showed at second asking, and the winner of that race returned to win next out at GP on 1/23 going 1m over turf vs. 75k OPC's with a 78 Beyer; feel that she's eligible to be ready to give a good account of herself in her first start as a 3-year-old. |
| Touch the Star |
| Half-sister to G1 winner Etoile Montante (7-16, 659k, including 2 of 7 North American turf starts for 340k) improved along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in her second start with the addition of Lasix and now Mott sees fit to send her out in blinkers; Juddmonte-homebred attracts the services of a currently hot rider. |
| Lady Lavery |
| She enters this race off of a useful career debut and she's out of a dam who won one of seven turf starts for 65k, and this miss is a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Skylighter (4-17, 489k, including 0-for-3 over turf); Darley-homebred has the look of a top contender and Saez has won with 9 of 29 (31%) mounts for this barn in 2014. |
| Risk Control |
| Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and dam was winless from six starts, including two turf starts; daughter of Giant's Causeway took a step in the right direction at second asking and she might be looking forward to getting over turf; this is a barn and rider that team up with success. |
| Elissa Town |
| She ran well over turf in starts two and three, and at this time of the year it's worth noting that this is a 4-year-old facing mostly 3-year-old competition; she can have a say in the outcome, especially if the early pace is slow to develop. |
| Academyperformance |
| Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; she must show more than she did in her career debut in order to contend, but she does have a turf leaning pedigree; winner from latest won next out at Pim on 4/13 going 1 1/16m in a 40k OPC with a 69 Beyer. |
| Costela |
| Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and multiple G1 winning dam won 13 of 28 starts for $1.5 million, including 1 of 6 North American turf starts for 76k; this filly is a 1/2 to Fire Lookout (3-10, 62k, including 2 of 7 turf starts for 45k). |
| Boxford Belle |
| Her turf debut in her in her latest outing can be viewed as being her best effort to date, but she will have to show more in order to threaten the top contenders in here; she's out of a multiple graded stakes winning dam who won 7 of 10 starts for 349k, including 1-for-1 over turf for 21k; this filly is a 1/2 to Indycat (10-42, 227k, including 5 of 17 turf starts for 102k). |
| Cloture |
| 4-year-old filly shows up for a barn that has done very well with turf starters the past few years, and if she performs the way she did in her latest outing while making her first start of 2014, she'll be tough to deal with; the 77 Beyer Speed Figure she earned for her latest effort is easily the best last race figure in this field. |
| The Right Bird |
| She's eligible to still have more to show us with only two starts behind her and she took a step in the right direction at second asking; this miss is a 1/2 to G1 winner Karlovy Vary (4-13, 448k, including 3 of 9 turf starts for 134k); winner from latest won next out here on 4/16 going 1m vs. N1X alw. rivals with a 71 Beyer. |
| Small World |
| She wasn't able to get much going in her career debut but this is an outfit that has been known to have horse ready for much better in start number two; runner up from debut won next out here on 4/6 going 6 1/2f vs. MSW rivals with a 77 Beyer. - Brian Pochman |
Race 7
| Jonrah |
| Returns to the distance of his career-best Beyer speed figure posted last summer when winning a New York-bred event at SAR; was probably too close to the pace in latest which was more than 3 months ago; the 2-back winner repeated in an AQU-100K stakes with a 97 Beyer; 2-time winner Velasquez has Pinball for this. |
| Notacatbutallama |
| The good news is he ran a huge race May, 2013, when returning from a layoff similar to this one; was never better before the break posting back-to-back Beyer Tops; Maragh reunites only riding him once to an 80K-stakes-placed effort December, 2012, on AQU Main at 1 Mile on a sloppy track; has to get by Lubash receiving a negative 3-pound weight swing off his 2-back turf loss at today's distance. |
| Beautyinthepulpit |
| Sire is 45-for-451 with 1st-turf starters; is out of an 0-for-3 grass dam; 2 foals to race on turf are 0-for-2 combined; flashed tactical speed when racing at much shorter than this; if this remains on turf looks like Pinball is the one he will have to outbreak then keep on going. |
| Pinball |
| He is the one to catch; has won from off the pace during the winning streak but he does not meet a field top heavy with gate speed here; eyes up 6 wins in a row the latest was a key-race victory defeating the 4th and 5th-place finishers; they Beyered 92-85 in next-out GP-KEE-optional-claiming wins. |
| Lubash |
| Just doesn't ever seem to run a bad race; he defeated the 5th and 8th-place finishers from last they Beyered 99-87 in next-out CRC-Grade 3 stakes and AQU-OPC wins; the long layoff would be more of a concern if you didn't have such a high-percentage fresh/turf trainer; was stakes-placed the last time racing off a similar layoff; dangerous. |
| Kharafa |
| Was primed for this making his 1st start of the year vs. a much tougher group; disappointed as one of my tops picks that day because he had raced well right off freshenings previously and on GP grass but posted his lowest Beyer since June, 2012, in latest; should be more at home vs. NY breds returning to the distance and turf course of his 2-back win. |
| Comandante |
| Major-pace presence and Main Track Only entry receives a positive-7-pound weight swing off latest loss vs. Zivo when favored showing he's not as good on wet footing with all 4 wins on fast ovals; a stakes winner over the track at shorter hopes to carry his speed a long way up top. |
| Zivo |
| MTO is 2-for-2 on wet-race tracks winning latest with a huge-late burst;vhe is a head away from being on a 5-race winnng streak; defeated the 3-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 90-89 in a next-out AQU-allowance and optional-claiming wins. |
| Bigger Is Bettor |
| MTO comes off a long layoff since the stakes win on today's AQU Main; getting up in time right off the bench at today's distance is a concern as is his losses to similar rivals last summer at SAR-BEL; have him ranked a notch below the top contenders. |
| Awesome Vision |
| MTO has been away since posting his lowest Beyer since December, 2012; the trainer's 7%-win mark with 61-180-day fresh runners is cause for concern; the last time he raced on AQU Main was a decision over Zivo; will be taking a wait and see approach. |
| Spa City Fever |
| Owns the numbers' edge posting a best-last-race Beyer speed figure; MTO posted the 100 field's best Beyer April, 2012, on AQU Inner Dirt at 1 Mile when picking up 2nd money edged in a 71K stakes; would be a major pace presence if in. |
| So Scott |
| MTO was on the wrong end of a 3-horse win photo finish in last while 2-back he defeated the runner-up finisher who Beyered 97-84 in 2 next-out AQU-OPC wins; the 3-back winner repeated in an AQU-alw. with a 96 speed figure. - Art Gropper |
Race 8
| Sir Leslie |
| Draws the fence for the class rise after running them down over the inner in his return from wintering in Florida; gelding moves to the fence for the turn back and he didn't have much to offer in his lone local main track spin; he's been on his best game of late, but don't know that he'll have the move forward in him that would be necessary to step with some of these; minor award looks to be his ceiling in this spot. |
| The Brothers Rap |
| Wasn't beaten much when turned back to this trip last time and he's returned to work well; gelding is another who enters this on top of his game and he certainly likes the local main track; he'll need to keep improving as well, but it's nice to see a top pilot take interest and the price should be ok. |
| Groomedforvictory |
| He's offered for sale for the first time since taken by this outfit in his inner track finale; he's been quite good of late and just missed after forcing the pace through quick splits at a slightly shorter trip late time; 9 year old has been a tough customer of late but he'll be returning in less than 2 weeks here and maybe those recent tries have taken their toll on him; his best makes him a big threat, but there's some other speed signed on and he figures to take plenty of tote support; would try to beat him. |
| Sinistra |
| Boasts a sharp recent drill for his second straight crack at this trip after finishing just behind a couple of today's foes last time; gelding will get a solid clip to run at in here and he's certainly a fit at this level; his local main track record isn't very impressive, but maybe he offers some value here; consider. |
| Ultimate Empire |
| Returned short at the trip in his first start of the year but has to benefit from the experience and should be better second time off the 4 month break; pilot from that one opts elsewhere and this guy's 2 poor one turn mile efforts have come over the local main track; he's got some ability and fits well with this bunch, but he does settle for a lot of minor awards; contender. |
| Bernardo |
| Fresh colt ran pretty well in each of his local starts at the trip in the fall and now he'll return from 3 months on the shelf; like the way he's returned to work and this low profile outfit has had its runners ready to go at the stand; 4 year old can secure a spot within striking range of the pacesetters early and be in position to run them down late; giving him the nod to return running. |
| Warrior Up |
| First part of the coupling wasn't a threat to the top 2 on the class rise last time and now he'll catch a pretty solid bunch; it's been a while since he's run fast enough to win this and he hasn't finished in the exacta in 7 local spins; have to side with others for the money slots. |
| The Big Deluxe |
| Moves back in with statebreds after tiring from his pace efforts against open company allowance runners last week; this guy has speed to be involved from the outset and he was beaten just a head at the trip in his first off this barn's claim 2 starts back, but he doesn't figure to have things to himself from the outside this time. |
| Papa Tom |
| Other half of the barn's entry also hasn't run a number that would make him a threat here in quite a while; he finished behind today's mate last time and his prior handful of efforts were not up to what it would take to compete here; have to pass on him. |
| Mighty One |
| Didn't threaten in either of his starts since returning to this circuit off 7 months on the shelf; he showed some speed going long at Suffolk last summer, but there's not a lot to suggest he'll take the step forward he'd need to contender today. |
| Seventy Six |
| Gelding was given a little time after a decent effort for third money in his first start of the year; some of his better tries have come at this one turn trip and the outside draw could put him in a decent pace tracking spot; worth considering for exotics inclusion at a nice price. - Steve Grabowski |
Race 9
| East Coast Express |
| She's had her chances and can't be thrilled with the defeats vs. softer; place horse in last took a maiden $12.5K claimer and the show horse beat maiden $16K sellers; she lost ground late in her best efforts on grass; no seeing it. |
| Hiddenite |
| Divine Park 1 for 25 with first-time turfers; Grade 1 winning sire took 6 of 9, earned over $600K, never turfed; dam's lone win was a dirt sprint; all 4 siblings won; one cashed once on grass, one banked $125K; shades can't hurt the way things have go so far; place horse in last took a maiden $12.5K claimer and the winner repeated against $20K starter foes; passing. |
| Camie's Dancer |
| Uncle Camie 1 for 5 with first-time turfers; G3 winning sire took 8 of 22, banked over $300K, was a pure sprinter, lost only turf out; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; backers have to address the stamina issues but the drop can't hurt. |
| Send the Limo |
| Tiz Wonderful 4 for 41 with first-time turfers; sire took debut at 2, won a Grade 2 as a juvenile, banked over $250K, never turfed; stakes winning dam won long, earned nearly $145K, was 2nd twice in best turf moments; 3 of 4 siblings won; one won twice on grass, top earner Whiskey Romeo took several stakes, earned over $200K; miss was 4 clear in last; respect. |
| Ballerena Bliss |
| Bellamy Road 7 for 83 with first-time turfers; sire took debut at 2, won the Wood on way to over $800K career, was never on grass; dam was unraced; several multiple race winners in the family; one cashed on grass, top kin Shebelongstoyou earned over $200K; realistically placed, if she can run at all, she should show it here. |
| Tizallheart |
| She has run solid in 3 of her 5 turf outs; beaten less than a length in the last return effort; has some things to iron out. |
| Bay Dawn |
| Ommadon 0 for 10 with first-time turfers; sire took debut at 2, won 3 of next 13, banked over $200K, lost twice on grass; SW 7 for 41 dam earned over $350K, was turf only; the 3 siblings to run are a combined 0 for 81; expect much better effort. |
| Kevin's Steel |
| The spotty race record is a concern and the sibling that tried grass was out of the money twice on turf; would be careful here. |
| Notional Girl |
| Must hustle as she has yet to run in the money; show horse took a MSW at MNR next out, 4th finisher took a maiden $25K claimer and the winner was 2nd beaten a length in a $12.5K N2L fray; backers can at least say there is a turf winner in the tree; lean toward watching a return race. |
| Laghazirella Beach |
| Hung wide when cold on the tote last year; 7 for 23 dam earned nearly $250K, won 5 times on grass; lone half sis lost 23 times; fresh Lasix, not sure that's the cure all. |
| Rohver Girl |
| She has much more speed than she just flashed; dam lost only start; lone half sis Staroftheshow took 3 sprints, never turfed; would think long and hard before taking too short a number. |
| Lloyd Harbor |
| Apparently not much of a work horse 5th finisher took a maiden $25K claimer next out, 6th finisher took a maiden $16K claimer; the old Florida to NY tango to work with here; interesting. |
| Medaglia d'Argento |
| At least she has the 3 races to draw from now; she was closing the other time for a tag; probably a late factor if at all. |
| Paid Expectations |
| Jersey bred may need own kind to shine; dam lost only start; 3 of 5 siblings won, one banked nearly $125K, none tried grass; has the Limo to deal with among others but would expect her to show more zip. |
| Miss Glory |
| She has a shot to show more speed on the stretch out; tough to pull the trigger after the last fiasco. |
| Cajun Wedding |
| Maybe she didn't care for the inner strip; miss was over 5 clear in last; dam lost 7 times; the half bro to win cashed short and long but never on turf; could need softer to shine. - Brian Mulligan |