Aqueduct: Closer Looks for April 2, 2014

Race 1

Sweetest Peach

All those layoff lines among her PPs is a negative, and she has failed to hit the board in 13 starts on dirt and turf; the sixth and seventh-place finishers from her last race both came right back to graduate; post 1 in sprints was 3 for 11 (27%) to start the meet; mission impossible.

Estimated Queen

Her first effort for Rudy Rod wasn't anything to write home about, but her speed might be more effective in this event; Luis Contreras, Woodbine's perennial leading rider, has the mount and is also slated to pilot the unbeaten Social Inclusion for this owner in the Wood Memorial; can wake up.

Miss Red Cloud

Fla-bred is plunging to the lower ranks off another drab performance, as leading trainer Jacobson looks to recoup some of the $50K claiming price; her new rider Esquivel started the meet by going was 2 for 3 for this barn; prefer others on top.

Golden Annie

Annie has performed like an "in-and-outer" so far, and this will be her day to shine if the pattern continues; the rival she finished second to Jan. 19 returned to lose an N1X by a nose with a 58 Beyer; the gifted Jose Lezcano has the call for a trainer with whom he's had some success.

Lucky Seven

Oklahoma-bred is descending to a new low after getting beaten in double digits in all three of her excursions; daughter of classic winner Smarty Jones is changing jocks to a 10-pound bug who's never had a mount before; doubtful.

Warning Trackpower

Couldn't keep up against $35K maidens while stretching out in her debut for Englehart, who's won at an 11% clip second-time off the claim on the NYRA circuit over the past five years ($1.18 ROI); barn has fared well while removing the hood, and is 3 for 15 on the year when using Jose Ortiz; probably the one to fear most because of the turnback and drop in class.-Ron Gierkink

Race 3

Dixie Gem

Stonesider won his lone career start in a sprint at 2, and has sired 7.5% first-out winners; chestnut is the first foal from an unplaced mare who's by the under-rated E Dubai; trainer was 0 for 58 with first-timers during the past five years.

Rumble Doll

Earned low Beyer numbers while picking up a check in each of her excursions; daughter of the promising young sire Street Boss is doubling in price off the claim by a new trainer who hasn't had a starter to compete first-time off the halter switch; tri factor.

Jilly Mac

Checked in second behind a runaway winner at first asking in a recent $35K seller, after racing wide on a day when the rail was golden--the fourth horse from that dash subsequently beat $25K maidens with a 48 Beyer; Jacobson won at a 34% rate first-time off the claim with horses exiting a maiden score over the last five years ($4.80 ROI); trainer/rider combo went 2 for 3 to start the meet; the one to fear most.

It's Easy

Placed in three of her four outings, including a pair of sprints, and is donning blinkers off the claim by a little-known trainer; the rival she was a closing second behind March 2 came back to finish up the track in a $16K seller; logical for the bottom of vertical wagers.

Offlee Catty

Offlee Wild, a G1-winning router, has sired 11% debut winners; dam has thrown five winners, most notably the stakes-placed sprinters Mr. Bourbon Street ($247K) and Cajun Best ($55K); Baker enjoyed a productive winter meet here, but his stats with first-timers are mediocre.-Ron Gierkink

Race 4

Sendario

Sire Street Sense gets about 10% debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 6 of 13 for $4.3 million, won G1 BC Juvenile, was champion 2yo, won G1 Ky. Derby, G1 Travers, multiple G1 SP; dam has 1 winner from 3 foals, Gripsholm Castle (2 wins, $102K, G2 SP); dam won 8 of 15 for $673K,was multiple G2/G3 SW, twice G1 SP; cost $325K at auction and looks to have a foundation with plenty of works.

J to the Croft

Sire Curlin gets over 11% debut winners; sire won 11 of 16 for $10.5 million, won multiple G1s including the BC Classic, Preakness, Dubai World Cup, JC Gold Cup, Stephen Foster, Woodward, was 2-time HOY; dam's only foal it K to the Croft (1 win, $13K); dam won 3 of 14 for $295K, 2-time G1 SP; some solid recent works for a trainer who clicks at 18% first out.

Cost Affective

Been knocking on the door the past few months; good 2nd on the inner (8 3/4 lengths clear of 3rd) last time out; handled this track in the fall and in fact his career-top Beyer (80) came when he ran 3rd here Nov. 9; is it finally his turn?

Constantine

Debut wasn't much but hey, it was just his debut so you can be forgiving; remember, too, as great as Baffert is first time out he's even better 2nd time out (27%); Rosario take the call and he and Baffert are 4 for their last 8 (50%) together; big March 28 bullet work bodes well; 10 sibs to race are all winners including Parting Words (G2/G3 SP), full-bro Maximus Ruler (5 wins, $131K, G3 SP), Chosen Chief (9 wins, $356K, multiple SP) and I Love Silver (4 wins, $437K, SW, multiple G1 SP).

Cashmere Cat

Chased the pace in his debut here Nov. 20 but gave way; hey, you can always be forgiving about a debut run, however; hasn't been seen since and just has the 2 rdcent works, but at least they're 2 strong works and there's no panicky drop by a sharp trainer; 3 of 5 sibs are winners including May Fourteen (3 wins, $75K).

All My Memories

2nd at 4-5 on the inner Feb. 21 but it's not as if he was a real danger to winner Ground Control, who romped by 8 3/4 lengths ('Control came right back to beat winners, too); at least this guy was well clear of the rest (6 3/4 lengths); best Beyer (75) came on this track Nov. 30 so he handles this place; likely needs to run faster and maybe returning to the big track here will do the trick; lone sib finished off the board in 5 starts.

Vona

Nice 2nd on the inner Dec. 31, but then faded to be a well-beaten 4th as the 3-2 favorite on the inner Jan. 27; hasn't been seen since but there's been a barn switch; working nicely for new trainer Reynolds; 3yo cost $275K and they're not yet giving up on him and risking him for a tag; surely need to come back having improved more than a few lengths but that's by no means out of reach; lone sib is Cheers n' Humor (2 wins, $15K).-Michael Hammersly

Race 5

Road Agent

May be ready to peak; had a nice run last spring/summer but then came a layoff and he didn't come back the same horse; however, he perked up nicely with a sharp 2nd on the inner here March 6; that being said, it came vs. $20K foes so he's up in class today, but it's nice Rudy feels good enough about him that he places him where he can't lose him via a claim.

Matt and Jesse

Things just haven't gone so well since that big slop win at SAR last August; good news here would be more rain as at least you know he handles that footing; still, his recent stuff doesn't exactly get the pulse racing but at least there's no big panicky drop; still, he's got some work to do.

Chilton

Not only looked good whipping $20K N2L foes on the inner Feb. 23 but Nevin saw fit to claim him AND now brings him back where she can't lose him via another claim; that win was at 6fs so we're talking a different game today but could be Nevin bought at the right time and some good routs on the inner this past meet show this trip is within his grasp.

In the Dark

Nice maiden win on the inner Feb. 17 but then came that first run vs. winners there March 22 and it wasn't pretty; in his defense, not only was it first time vs. winners but they were decent N1X foes and he broke poorly to boot; down some in class today so that may help, but he's also into uncharted waters distance-wise.

Cat Man Fu

Tough to be too enthused; didn't get that first win until start 43; hey, at least he finally got it and he did look pretty darn good that day; however, first 2 tries vs. winners weren't pretty and while this spot may not be as tough he's still not facing a bunch of patsies and he still likely needs a big kick in the pants to his career-top Beyer (65) if he's to be involved.

Reserved Quality

Ran on decently for 3rd against somewhat similar sprinting on the inner March 20; moves to a longer trip this time and he hasn't hit the board in 3 tries at the mile but his last run was encouraging and he's always sprinted as if he could be effective going at least this far.-Michael Hammersly

Race 6

Wise Guide

Right back in 6 days later after finishing behind his uncoupled stablemate who picked up the pieces late to win it all as he hung on the money all while posting a new-career Top Beyer speed figure; the new trainer's 3-for-10 record 1st off the claim and 3-for-11 record with 1-7-day returnees since 2013 is noted; doubles the price tag from last but remains with non-winners of 3 runners which is a help; projects to stalk the pace while saving ground then hopes to find the missing-late punch.

Take the El Train

If he wants the frontend here has Ausable River to fend off early then the stalkers/closers late; bounce chance today posting a win and new-Beyer Top when making his 1st start in 64 days while back in just 17 days for this; if the track comes up wet his 2 off-track races were the 2 worst races on his form including 3-back when defeated by the winner and runner-up they Beyered 80-70 in next-out AQU-optional-claiming and allowance wins.

Ausable River

Try to catch me; raced on the lead in 4 in a row until latest when bumped at the start; 2 bullet workouts after the purchase suggest we will see a lot of gate speed as this 3-year-old facing older rivals for the 1st time is in receipt of a 6-pound weight break from each runner.

Park City

Wide trips in last pair hoping he can at least save some ground for this; is on the wrong end of the scales with Speightscity who defeated him in last and now gives that one 4 extra pounds for this; 2-time-6F winner began career sizzling 2-for-2 but is 5-0-0-0 since; has won on a wet track which would move him up some; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 97 in a next-out AQU-OPC win; the 4-0-0-0 record in dirt routes and the even finish from last are not easy to take despite racing for top-notch connections; have him ranked him a notch below the top contenders.

Beeliner

Returns to the AQU Main where he finished last in his only other start over this oval; the 2-back win was right on the lead but has Ausable River and Take the El Train to contend with from the inside; projects to press the pace 3-wide; defeated the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 70 in a next-out AQU-starter alw. win; view as a pace presence for part.

Denn Piper

Finally gets in a non-winners of 3 claiming spot after being overmatched with starter alw. foes; has shown nothing in 3 races on AQU Main which is a major issue as he seeks the correct level; last-to-1st winner in his latest win at today's distance; despite the class relief others appeal more.

Speightscity

Both wins at longer than 1 Mile; he was aggressively dropped in claiming price 1st off the purchase while unable to win last pair he has improved his form exiting a best-last-race Beyer speed figure; the 3-back winner repeated in an AQU starter alw. with a 96 Beyer; is winless in 14 races since December, 2011, winning at 1M and 70 yards on AQU-Inner dirt vs. optional-claimers; broke his maiden at 9F on SAR dirt in '11; posted the field's best Beyer in the 2012 Travers when fading at 2F longer than today's event; the one to beat.

Saturday Appeal

Cutting back to 1 Mile should help the cause after being outfinished at longer; figures to stalk the inside speed then once again get 1st run on the closers; 1-for-19 fast-track record is not easy to take and would prefer wet footing; his latest win was over a sloppy-BEL oval.

Inmyfathersimage

While some of these have not been in their best form on AQU-Main previously he comes into this event 1-for-1 over the track; graduated by more than 8 lengths on a less-than-fast oval but he can run on anything posting his last win and Beyer-career Top on fast footing; figues to setup just outside the inside speed then should be tough to hold off late; the class relief is a major plus dropping from much-stiffer starter races into a non-winners of 3 claimer for this; the winner from last repeated in an AQU-alw. with an 85 Beyer; the pick.

Third Knight

Blinkers on - now blinkers off - trying to shake up the form for the 2nd start off the claim following his 4th straight off-the-board finish; have never been a big fan of runners claimed from Hall of Fame Trainer Mott and this one was purchased 2-back off a loss to the winner who repeated in an AQU-starter alw. with an 80 Beyer.-Art Gropper

Race 7

Old Upstart

Tries dirt for the first time while returning from 4 1/2 months on the shelf n his local debut; new barn doesn't start many but they'll name a capable bug while giving this guy the full makeover with Laisx and shades for the initial drop to claimers today; with a solid route pedigree and a full tab of recent drills on his return tab he's worth a look on the stretchout.

Eight Cents

Tackles a bunch of sophomores while turning back off a near miss placing a couple of weeks back; he'll try the main track today while losing his regular pilot to the guy drawn to his immediate outside, but he does get a solid journeyman replacement; doesn't have much early foot and the barn hasn't won a race yet this year; maybe for a share.

Killer Crossover

His pilot sticks are he draws to claimers for his first crack over the inner after showing improved early lick first time in shades; beaten last out chalk earned a field best number when runner up in a 2 turn mile 2 starts back and he catches a field that doesn't look to contain a lot of early foot; his barn does nice work with its runners in for a tag for the initial time; one to beat.

Neoclassic

Makes his first start of the year while turning back after fading from a wide spot in his lone inner track try; barn hasn't had a lot of recent luck first time back and though this guy has been working regularly of late the drills are short and not particularly quick; he does face claimers for the first time and a top pilot gets back aboard this Darley colorbearer.

Dukati

Adds shades for his first local start while also trying dirt for the initial time; didn't left a hoof in the Gulfstream turf debut run, but he did encounter trouble immediately while running into a slew of next out winners in that one; dam's 3 wins came on dirt and 2 of them were in routes prior to dropping a main track route winner; wouldn't be surprised to see him go better in here.

Jackson N Lorimer

Boasts a quick drill for his first crack over the local main track for his second off the break for an outfit that's profitable second back from the break; gelding showed solid early foot before getting run past by a pretty good one and some subsequent winners in his sloppy Saratoga debut run last summer and caught another wet track in his inner track return; may prove to be the one to run down.

Conflictedinterest

Didn't get off to a great beginning before failing to impact his Laurel sprint debut and now he'll make his first local start for a tag; barn hasn't had any recent success with runners who have had a race and the dam's 3 wins all came sprinting so don't know that the added trip proves to be up his alley; prefer others.

Peaceful Talk

Didn't have much late while facing just a handful of foes in his inner track sprint debut and now he'll try a flat mile; interim breeze wasn't much and this guy's sibs boast just a single placing from 14 combined career starts so don't know that he's going to move forward so quickly; barn does boast some solid numbers of late with stretchouts.-Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Little Miss Lupe

Looks like a pace factor but little more; she managed one distant third here on the inner track after setting the pace but faded in her two other attempts and was a low-end claimer at FL prior to coming to the City; wait until this one returns to Finger Lakes before backing.

Start It Up

Surprised with a runner-up finish at 11-1 last time out - and effort that if repeated gives her a strong chance in here; also managed a second going a mile in Feb. before finishing sixth and fourth in the starts between those; prone to seconds with 5 from 16 races; prefer to use in the 2-3 spots in the exotics.

Bileaps and Bounds

Didn't break smoothly but more than anything simply could not keep up with starter 20K runners last time out; in general those races are superior to first-level NY-bred races; two back effort was strong; this one's inconsistent but capable of a strong race when she puts it all together.

Kilnockagain

Lost as the chalk in each of her last two starts but ran better last time than she did 1/26 by setting a pressured pace and only fading in the final furlong; obviously showed a lot of promise to begin her career with 3 wins from her first 4 starts; second start off a layoff angle; anything close to matching her fastest race crushes these, though; choice.

Agilion

Was stakes placed in 2012 but her subsequent form has been disappointing, aside from a decent third Jan. 26; had a little bit of trouble in her latest but not enough to justify a 17-length thumping; Kenneally seeks to wake her up with the addition of blinkers.

In Her Day

Figured to improve with the benefit of experience 3/3 and did by crushing maidens by 4 1/2 lengths; hast yet to face winners but won in nice time last out and did so over a next-out winner; as before her last race, Rice gives her just an easy 4f move; that's her style; contender.

Wisdom of Oz

Has been among the most consistent runners on the inner track this winter - four straight in-the-money finishes, but they all came against n2L claimers; she gets a class test here vs. this level of competition; picks up lot-riding apprentice Taylor Rice; has been going off at long odds - so those with faith will likely be offered another big price.-Byron King