Aqueduct
Aqueduct: Closer Looks for April 18, 2014
Race 1
| Cee No More |
| Sire Tiznow gets over 7% debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 8 of 15 for $6.4 million, won G1 BC Classic (twice), G1 SA Handicap, G1 Super Derby, multiple G1 SP, was Horse of the Year; dam has 4 winners from 5 foals to race including Mr. Handsome (3 wins, $218K, 3-time SP) and this colt's full-sis Thor's Daughter (4 wins, $129K, SW); dam was off board in 2 starts; lots of works so there's a foundation here for a trainer who can fire first out. |
| Lightning Ron |
| Came back from a long layoff this winter on the inner and showed some spark with a couple 3rds, including 1 routing (though he was DQ'd to 6th that day); last 2 over this big track here, however, weren't so hot; back to routing and given an encouraging value hike and as noted, his best race came routing at this level. |
| Eight Cents |
| Near-miss 2nd on the inner at this level March 20 (beaten a head) shows he fits with these; then tried $40K foes on this track April 2 but was away sluggishly and unable to get involved; down a bit with a work since; lone sib, Academic Probation, is a winner. |
| Distant Thoughts |
| Debut wasn't pretty but hey, it was just his debut and you can always be forgiving about a first run; it also came on turf, vs. straight maidens and he blew the start, so again, you can reason your way around that; trouble is, that was last Oct. 2 and he hasn't been seen since; returns with some steady GP works and the most important drop in the game, but that's a long layoff and he's also being asked to face a couple elders, no easy feat this early in the year. |
| Againsome |
| Showed speed in his dirt debut at GP Jan. 16, vs. straight maidens, though he weakened after about 4fs; still, that was an encouraging run; however, he came back to be dull on the inner Feb. 28 and now comes a layoff and big drop; yes, the drop may be helpful and it's been a good move for Pletcher (23%) but they paid $400K for him and are now willing to part with him for less than 10% of that price; they don't give anything away out here; 2 sibs are winners including Star Presence (2 wins, $114K). |
| Howl |
| Seemed on his way when a good 2nd in his 2nd start on the inner Dec. 21; that was a route vs. straight maidens and he was 32-1 and finished well clear of 3rd while not far at all behind a then-promising Pletcher runner Monopolize ($500K son of Bernardini); however, the pattern since is worrisome - dull race Jan. 31/2 months off/dull race on the inner March 22; at least there's no layoff this time but he also moves in for a tag and the fact he didn't fare so well March 22 is troubling as Mott is, of course, among the best at getting them to fire off the bench; worked nicely twice since at least and Mott has had success with this class move (22%). - Michael Hammersly |
Race 2
| Royal Suspicion |
| 4th in a spot like this, though it's a tad daunting that the 3 gals who beat her that day are ALL lined up against her again here; remember, though, this gal threw her head at the start to get away poorly so she's capable of better, as you can see if you look at her 2013 form; trouble is, that makes for 3 not-so-hot 2014 races so it makes you wonder if she's on the downside of her form cycle. |
| Carameaway |
| Coupled with Dreaming of Cara; been knocking on the door of late with a couple decent 2nds including 1 in a race just like this here March 31; was no match for Miss Da Point that day, but that also came in mud and this gal has handled mud but it isn't her forte (7-0-3-0); dry land would certainly help and she's got the speed to be in it from the bell. |
| Miss Da Point |
| No way to knock a gal who's won 4 of her last 6; OK, so we'll try - she did fizzle vs. some of these when 4th on the inner Feb. 23; bad news for her rivals is she was then 3rd vs. tough open foes and returned to this level and state-breds and won easily over this track March 31; has speed but isn't speed-crazy, and in fact she seem best on the stalk; figures tough again. |
| Dreaming of Cara |
| Coupled with Carameaway; been knocking on the door with a string of good outings; 3rd in a spot like this here March 31, though she finished behind today's foes Miss Da Point and Carameaway; that was in mud, though, and it isn't her favorite footing; have to go back a ways to find her last win (April 2012, at the time her 3rd straight win) and she's only been in the exacta in 1 of her last 13 but she sdtill merits respect as it's not that long ago she ran well in an NY-bred stakes. |
| Hundred Acre Wood |
| Backers have liked the way she times her wins; her last 3 victories came at 5.70-1, 19.40-1 and last time out, 14.50-1; that was March 6 and she's given an encouraging step up in class; even if she hasn't notched back-to-back wins before she's strung together good efforts so don't be surprise if she runs well again; that being said, this is a tough bunch and her best work hasn't really come over this track (4-0-0-1). |
| Clean Jean |
| Done awfully well at FL the past couple seasons so she's a pro; hey, you don't win 13 times by accident; that being said, we're not in her sandbox (FL) this time and she hasn't been seen yet this year so there's a layoff to deal with as well; been plenty busy the past couple seasons and while she's in for a tag she's certainly no giveaway for this kind of price; has speed, talent and knows how to win but the hurdles (foes, layoff, different track) are not insignificant. - Michael Hammersly |
Race 3
| Bad to the Roan |
| Took all the money first out but didn't do much running when stuck in a wide spot following the troubled beginning on the inner; barn boasts nice numbers with its second out runners and they've gotten off to a nice start at the local stand; he's the first foal to race out of a dam whose 2 wins came going long, however, and the fence draw means he's going to need to break alertly to have a big impact today. |
| Freudex |
| Sire gets 11% first out winners from his debut runners and the limited sprint winning dam's lone foal to race was off the board in both of her sprint starts; barn hasn't had a lot of recent luck right out of the box, but they are capable with this type and this guy's most recent gate move was quite improved over what he had been doing in the morning. |
| Tax Alex |
| Opened a clear lead before getting run down as the chalk while facing cheap maidens last month in his first start since Saratoga; colt steps up to face MSWs in this spot for an outfit that boasts some recent luck with its second out runners and they've worked him long in the interim to help increase his stamina. |
| My Terms |
| Poor start didn't help matters, but he took little money in the debut effort here on Wood Memorial Day so he wasn't expected to offer much; maybe he's better with the initial experience behind him and he is kin to 8 sprint winners, but he'd need a significant form reversal to get to the place earner from his last who returns here as well. |
| Stalagmite |
| Makes his first start since Saratoga where he took a good step forward when dropped in to face statebreds in his second career spin; low profile outfit does boast a recent return winner; dam was a SP router but this guy has shown he can get involved early and he moves out into the track for the comebacker; worth a look. |
| Dusk to Dawn |
| Sire gets 14% first out winners and the dam was a 3 time sprint winner prior to dropping a couple of sprint winners including 4 time sprint winner and 137K earner I'm Stoked who earned a 96 Beyer in beating open company allowance runners over the inner strip this past winter; works are short, but the barn knows how to get them ready. |
| Station Chief |
| Ran big when unveiled over the track on the Wood Memorial undercard and now he'll move outside for his return to the races; colt showed good speed and given a clean break would expect he'll lead this bunch early as well; both of his sibs to race are multiple sprint winners so have to think he's got improvement in him and the slightly shorter trip should play to his benefit; one to catch and beat. - Steve Grabowski |
Race 5
| Princes On Thelake |
| Although the pace and final time of her comeback race may not inspire, it was one of her better efforts at the course and distance when showing much more determination; could make first run on the presumed pacesetter to her right and may offer a generous price once again. |
| Island Candy |
| Crushed her field when breaking maiden recently and can return instant dividends for the new connections now; daughter of the undefeated Candy Ride seems more than capable of a repeat score if unchallenged in the opening stages; obvious true contender. |
| William'sluckygray |
| Faced only 3 rivals in her first attempt against winners and caught another off track in that performance; best effort by far was the maiden breaker over a fast surface and she should be a prominent pace factor if things dry out completely by post time. |
| Brown Mellisa |
| Raced against much tougher last month, her first try around 2 turns; graduated over a wet-fast surface, despite a troubled trip, and certainly seems worth some play if catching similar footing today; legit contender. |
| Ms. Sylvia A. |
| The Beyer she earned in her maiden breaker was just a tad slower than Island Candy, yet she benefited in that score when enjoying a very soft half-mile fraction; will more than likely have to deal with a swifter early pace today and that will prove the key to her chances. |
| Jen's Miracle |
| Adds blinkers after showing no firepower last month but that was a much stronger group than this one; switches to Franco who has done well with a limited number of mounts for these connections and the betting value will be there. |
| Fast 'n' Firm |
| Flashed modest early speed in her only start since January before fading; subsequent workout regimen is on the light side and it is doubtful she can clear this field today; must avoid yet another stumbling beginning; may have to settle for a thin slice. - Jim Kachulis |
Race 6
| Spango |
| Gelding should have his sea legs under him by now; he has a feel of the surface and was 6 clear in last; 2 for 7 dam banked $30K; family is solid; all 6 siblings won including near $180K earner Spanish Luck; barn tries to strike while iron is hot and they are good with that ploy to the tune of 24% in the last year or so. |
| Keyaly |
| Gelding loses 53 times and fans jump on 6-1; what's up with that?; repeatedly beaten vs. softer, he has not lost this many times because he has a heart of gold; can't endorse. |
| Pegasus T |
| Nice bit of training to have him run so well off the extended layoff; backers can point to the fact that sibling Texas Starlet won over $100K; should sit a nice stalk and pounce trip; maybe he'll take to a glib surface. |
| Unforced |
| Backers got to scream for about 22 seconds before reality hit; place horse in last graduated here in a maiden $16K seller with a 52 Beyer; 9 for 25 dam earned almost $70K; this is her first to race; must hustle. |
| Pillar of Strength |
| Considering the winner was by himself last time, the race was not all that bad; place horse in last graduated here last Friday in a maiden $35K claimer with a 71 Beyer; stakes winning 5 for 37 dam banked $240K; all 4 siblings won including stakes winner Landofopportunity, who earned almost $150K; another slice? |
| Thrill Hill |
| Got to give Ortiz his props for showing up after getting dropped; gelding was forced to check two back and snappy blowout last Friday should have him on his toes; toss anything from a 31% barn at own risk. |
| Giulio Cesari |
| This is his level; like fact he has natural speed and he could show more with the blinks this time; should be around the wire once again when the smoke clears. |
| Fooky Story |
| Freud about 11% with debuters in a 360-runner sample; sire was 2nd a half in debut at 2 at The Curragh at 6 furlongs on a yielding course, graduated there at 3 at about a mile; dam's lone win came on grass; several multiple race winners in the field; top sibling Message Red took a stakes, earned $240K taking 6 of 14; could need experience. |
| New Dude |
| Repent about 6% with debuters in a 334-runner sample; sire won thrice at 2, was dirt route only, earned over $1.2 million taking half of 10 outs; dam just one for 21 and it came on turf; lone half sis to race Miz Owell took 2 of 11, earned almost $50K; soph looks fit enough. |
| Pepi's Find |
| Must be respected on the drop alone and he could be more relaxed and aware of the surroundings with the blinks off today; dam was unraced; several multiple race winners in the tree including near $200K earner Yo Karakorum; backers have to hope the drop shakes him up. |
| Rontos New York |
| Utopia about 4% with debuters in a 143-runner sample; sire took 2 Group 1s in Japan at 2, banked nearly $5 million; 3 for 31 dam earned $80K, was turf only; 3 of 6 siblings won including Cybercation, a 3 for 7 near $50K earner; been in training a long time; not sure that's a good thing. - Brian Mulligan |
Race 7
| Waterway |
| Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and dam won once from three starts for 30k, and she didn't make a turf start; this colt is a 1/2 to stakes placed Shipwreckstreasure (9-46, 254k, including 2 of 16 turf starts for 63k); interesting to see the early speed he has to employ from the rail post in his first start over turf and his first start routing. |
| Knock Quietly |
| Not only does this look like a tough spot for him to make his first turf start since October, but when seeing his 1-for-46 race record, it's just tough to place any confidence in him for the top spot; he looks like more of an outsider. |
| Barnards Galaxy |
| His form really tailed off in his final two starts of 2013, but he ran some races over turf last year that are plenty strong enough to suggest that he can put together a competitive performance against these; like to see that he's two-for-three over this turf course, and this barn has been going strong this year; Ortiz has won with 4 of 12 (33%) mounts for this outfit in 2014. |
| Ziggy the Great |
| Have to respect what he did in his career debut as a 2-year-old sprinting over the Saratoga turf, and there's reason to believe that he can be ready for better at second asking while making his first start as a 3-year-old; this barn has regained their winning edge in 2014, so going to look for this one to give a good account of himself. |
| Charity Reins |
| Of the horses in the main body of this race, he sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, but there is a long layoff in play, and he's making his first start against winners; not willing to count him out of it, but others entice more. |
| Noosh's Tale |
| The lack of early speed he's been showing is a concern, but if he can reproduce one of his better efforts from 2013, he can make some noise through the lane against these; his form has been clouded a bit by a couple of dirt starts this year. |
| Goodtolook |
| He looks like the dominant early speed in this race and he has shown that when everything goes his way he can get brave on the lead; the early pace in this race figures to be honest, but they'll have to be careful to not let this one get clear. |
| Irish Jade |
| He's proven that he can run well against competition of this caliber and it looks like he's been training right along in preparation for his first start of 2014; like to see Luzzi aboard again as he seems to get along well with this runner. |
| Lt. Kojak |
| His one win was earned against maidens at Suffolk Downs in a race where he earned a 44 Beyer Speed Figure and he's going to need to step it up over his previous best effort if he's planning on getting the better of this bunch. |
| Saturday Appeal |
| If this race has to be moved to the main track, this gelding will boast the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here; there are a couple of horses in this race that have shown the ability to put together a solid performance over dirt, but this will be a favorable spot for him to land in. - Brian Pochman |
Race 8
| Cat Man Fu |
| 1-for-37 dirt record is not easy to take especially coming off a 2-back decisive loss vs. similar rivals; is a late runner over a track that favored front runners last week at today's Mile distance; the good news is his lone win was from the the rail draw and overall he is 5-1-1-2 breaking from post 1. |
| Beyond Empire |
| Been bet hard off the debut victory but has been away since back-to-back Beyer speed figure lows; lone win was racing midpack but was sent hard to the lead in last when dueled into defeat at longer; the layoff move is a 26%-win angle for his trainer; would need to be forwardly placed here to make an impact; in 9 races at 1 Mile on AQU Main from April 9-12 six of the winners raced 1st or 2nd at the 1st call and not one winner raced farther back than 3 lengths back. |
| Sideways Vision |
| Made the lead for the 1st time in career through soft-early fractions then kept on going; with Beyond Empire going here the pace projects to be a lot quicker for this which could leave him pressing it; defeated the show finisher from last who graduated next out in an AQU-MSW event with a 58 Beyer. |
| Fleet First |
| Perfect example of a runner improving dramatically 2nd-time out picking up 22 Beyer points while adding blinkers for the 1st time; major-class test to face winners for the 1st time; was also entered Wednesday at 4-1 morning-line odds as a Main Track Only entry in a 1M and 1-16th turf race at today's level. |
| Piscesbymoonlight |
| His best races are when forwardly placed which fits the profile of Mile-dirt winners over today's track; figures to sit just off Beyond Empire then get 1st run on the closers; owns the numbers' edge on these exiting a best-last-race Beyer speed figure defeating 3 of these; his field-best Beyer and lone win was produced on a muddy race track although in today's event the track is projected as fast; seems the one to beat. |
| Awesome Heart |
| Is 0-for-7 in races at 1 Mile or over during career but late-running style suggests the added furlong off latest win won't hurt the cause; in his the only 1-turn dirt Mile of career was easily handled by Chrisandlorisposse who also beat him 3-back. |
| Frost Jordan |
| Tons of trouble in his 1st-route test; 2nd-time Long is often an improvement angle; blinkers on for the 1st time today which is a 22%-win angle for his trainer trying to produce better tactical speed; was also entered Wednesday at 7-2 morning-line odds as a Main Track Only entry in a 1M and 1-16th turf race at today's level. |
| Wise Guide |
| New trainer is 3-for-10 since 2013 first off the claim; had no excuse in last when favored vs. lesser as his uncoupled barnmate won at larger odds; both wins on AQU Inner Dirt and must show a great improvement off latest to succeed at this elevated level. |
| Jack's R Wild |
| Last time he was sent 1 Mile or longer it produced a 20-length loss; the good news is his Beyer pattern is on the improve and he beat Frist Jordan 3-back who fits very well with these; main issue is he's a late runner on a track that favors speed/stalker types at 1 Mile. |
| Chrisandlorisposse |
| Back to Jerkens training off the loss to Piscesbymoonlight when heavily backed by the bettors to below even-money odds; his best races are when racing on or close to the lead but the gate break proved costly in most recent; the 3-back winner and runnerup Beyered 80-70 in next-out AQU-allowance and optional-claiming wins. - Art Gropper |
Race 9
| Perfect Stormy |
| First part of the coupling tries older while being offered for a tag following 2 weak sprint tries over the inner strip; his sire gets about 13% winners from his first time surface runners and the dam was a multiple GSW turfer and 541K earner who dropped 2 surface winners in the states; he figures to like this footing better but would have liked to see them put him in a protected spot over this stuff before offering him for sale. |
| Come On Charlie |
| First foal to race out of an unraced dam is by a sire who gets 15% overall first out winners and 10% first turf winners from his offspring; works are steady, but nothing special and the barn has been on a poor run with its newcomers. |
| Buddy's Smart |
| Hasn't done much in any of his starts and now he'll try the lawn for the first time in his second crack at this level; barn is going well here and does solid work with its runners second back from the break; sire gets 11% first time surface winners from his offspring; G1 SW dam ran second in one of her 2 turf starts but her foals were a combined 0 for 3 on the green. |
| Dendrite |
| He's lost 25 times but he's earned a slew of minor awards on the green including 5 from 6 cracks over the local sod; gelding doesn't face all that much and he does boast competitive numbers, but he's probably better at one turn and he's certainly had a bunch of swings; barn is sharp with its returnees and they've gotten off to a nice start at the stand; consider. |
| Texas Town |
| Stretches back out for his return to the lawn over which he ran poorly last fall; gelding should bring some fresh speed to the table and he is kin to 3 time surface winner and 186K earner Yes It's Pink, but the barn doesn't have much recent luck moving them back to this footing. |
| Captain Keon |
| Hood goes on for his first start of the year while returning to a course over which he lost all chance at the start to end last season; gelding wasn't bad in his prior turf try across town though that one did come at one turn; ran a big one fresh on the Gulfstream lawn to begin his career. |
| Brilliant Einstein |
| He's been sprinting and hasn't made much of an impact including most recently when back in for a cheap tag first time on the local main track; his sire is 1 for 6 with his first turfers and the dam was winless from 10 cracks on the green prior to dropping this guy. |
| Solo Approach |
| He's had a little time since failing against Gulfstream MSWs first time off this barn's claim; gelding ran well on the green down there 2 back and his numbers indicate he's a good fit at this level; he's had his share of chances so what you see is what you get out of him, but he's capable of getting in the mix here. |
| Azorian |
| Works aren't much for this guy's route unveiling but the barn certainly knows how to get them ready and a top pilot is named; sire gets about 8% first out winners and 10% first surface winners from his offspring and the dam was a multiple NYB SW turfer and 394K earner who dropped 2 surface winners from 4 foals to race. |
| Retire Fifty Five |
| Draws the outside slot for his turf debut while in against older rivals for the initial time; gelding showed some improved early lick in his first route spin; sire is 0 for 7 with his first turfers and the dam was off the board in her lone turf try, but she did drop juvenile SW turfer and 135K earner Wind in My Wings who won twice on the lawn. |
| Perfect Dancing |
| AE will start from a tough draw if he gets to make his turf debut here; he hasn't done much in any of his 3 spaced starts but his dam's 3 wins all came on the green; sire gets about 5% first time surface winners from his offspring. |
| Hooping |
| AE ships in from Gulfstream where he wasn't beaten all that much against a tougher set than he'll catch today; he'll pick up a solid pilot for his local return but he won't have it easy from out here; maybe for a share. |
| Filosofo |
| AE faces older claimers for the first time in this spot; gelding offered little in his turf debut at Gulfstream last fall but he is kin to a multiple surface winner so maybe he deserves another crack over the stuff if he gets to go; price should be right. |
| Eastcoast Lights |
| Barn's other half is mired on the AE list and not likely to get in here; she's yet to offer much of anything on dirt and his sire gets only 7% winners from his first time surface runners; dam never tried the green but she was a SP, route winner on this circuit and she dropped a solid turf sprinter in One Note Samba who won 5 times in 7 career surface tries. - Steve Grabowski |