Aqueduct: Closer Looks for April 16, 2014

Race 1

Make Your Point

Debut was decent and she earned her best Beyer Speed Figure when she stretched out to a mile in her second start; she had an excuse in her latest which produced a next-out winner; takes the drop and the past five years Serpe has a 10 percent strike rate with horses going from MSW to maiden claiming; stakes-placed dam won a couple of sprints; contender.

Madison V.

She owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field and it came when she wasn't wearing blinkers three back in a key race with the second and sixth-place horse coming back to win; shades come off following a couple of dull efforts and maybe the equipment change will get her back on track; she could also be ready for a big effort in the third start of her current form cycle; contender.

Peach Lake

Seems to be heading in the right direction and if she can continue her progress she could make a race of it; she wasn't much of a threat the only time she stretched out to a middle distance, however; it was a lot tougher spot, though, and her breeding suggests she can handle the distance; mixed signals.

Fancy 'n Flight

She was no match for a runaway winner in her latest but it was an improved effort and it came at a similar distance; she comes out of a barn that is having a good meet and she figure to move forward with a solid race behind her; she does need a Beyer boost to contend for the top spot, howeve.

Bonfire Heart

She got off to a poor start when she debuted at this level March 30 but she made a nice move on the turn before understandably tiring late; she came back with nice work at Belmont April 9 and is certainly eligible to improve with a race behind her; first foal out of an unraced mare is the pick in a race that is hard to take a firm stand on any of them.

See Me Sometime

Comes out of the same race as Peach Lke and Bonfire Heart and she was up close to the moderate pace before fading; looks like the one they will have to catch and it is possible she will get brave on the lead; nonetheless, she's never gone this far and from what she has shown us so far she is probably going to have a hard time carrying her speed the whole way.-Randy Goulding

Race 2

Inaflash

Dueled and paid the price in the slop at this level here March 30; speed is her main weapon but she's no need-the-lead type; best races have been when she PRESSED the issue and went on with it; a return to those tactics may do the trick here; nice to see no drop, too, as they keep her above what they paid for her less than a month ago.

Guyana Princess

Kept to her task nicely to be 3rd vs. $12,500N1Y foes here a couple weeks ago; good news is the gal she chased (Quiet Sunshine) flattered that race by coming right back to win; bad news is Quiet Sunshine is lined up against her again here; still, there wasn't much separating the 2; been knocking on the door but you do have to wonder as it's 0 for her last 18 and hasn't won since Sept. 2012; Contessa saw fit to claim her.

Pegasus Diamond

Been prominent early in her last 3 but faltered in each; in her defense, all 3 came vs. tougher than she faces today so maybe this class drop is what the Dr. ordered; owns a win here and her tactical speed should have her in a good spot from the start; question is, can the drop keep her in the thick of it throughout?

Quiet Sunshine

May have turned the corner; posted a couple nice 2nds on the inner and then came a game tally over cheaper restricted here April 2; then she blasted open $12,500 foes April 10 and you have to love that Jacobson wheels her right back, striking while the iron is hot...and also incorporates a most encouraging value hike.

Talent N Passion

Gamely held on to wire $20K foes on the inner Feb. 24 and was claimed; then dueled and fizzled there March 23 but that was vs. tougher N1X foes; that type of class hike off the claim, and putting her where they couldn't lose her via another claim, was encouraging, but apparently that's not her level now; back in for a tag and she may well bounce back, but there's ample other speed lined up against her and you always worry a bit after they hit the brakes as hard as she did last time.

First Penny

Plenty of close calls lately so she's been knocking on the door; however, she's a bit like Guyana Princess - while they've both been running solid races vs. this caliber they haven't won in a long time; this gal is 0 for her last 20, her last win coming in April 2012; at least those last few show she comes here doing well and fits with these so with any sort of break and the slightest move forward she can be right in the thick of it.-Michael Hammersly

Race 3

Ausable River

3-year-old looks like he wants the lead and he will be up against it with other speed signed on; haltered out of his latest and since 2012 his new trainer is 1/10 with claimed horses running back the first time; the rail doesn't help his cause and this looks like a pretty tough spot for this guy; prefer others.

Roderick

Not sure what happened in his latest but he does want to be involved early and they were going at a pretty good clip early; toss the race and he looks like a player while making his first start for Levine who has solid stats in all the relevant categories; winner of his latest won two of his next three and posted an 86 Beyer Speed Figure in his win for $12.5K over the inner track March 14; not out of the question.

Sportswriter

Nice effort in his latest at this level and it can only help having Velazquez taking over the mount; he set the pace last time but he's versatile and he could get a nice trip from just off what figures to be a hotly contested battle up front; live barn, top rider and sharp form makes him a serious contender.

Jade Run

Second from Jacobson doesn't look as strong as his stablemate but the shape of the race could work in his favor; strong stats for Jacobson in the second start back and sprint to route categories; nonetheless, he's still eligible for a nonwinners of three and wouldn't he look a lot better in a conditional claimer? passing.

Southbeachsandy

Looked good getting his third win and then ran a decent race to finish just behind Sportswriter; his Beyer Speed Figures regressed in his last three so he could be beyond his peak, however; claimed out of his latest and the past five years Barbara has a five percent strike rate with newly claimed horses; prefer others.

Hay Shares

First from Rice figures to be involved early and he is capable of taking them all the way; nice effort coming off a lengthy layoff and the horse that beat him has won 4 of his last 6 and just missed in a $30K optional race for NY-breds Apr. 3; strong stats for Rice in the second start back category and this lightly-raced 4-year-old is proven at the trip; could be tough to get past if he breaks on top; the pick.

Won Great Classic

8-year-old has nine wins to his credit but he's never won a race longer than 6 1/2 furlongs; shape of the race should work in his favor and the past five years has a 20 percent strike rate with horses coming back in a week or less; he overcame trouble to win his secondstraight two back but due to distance concerns we're going to look in other directions.-Randy Goulding

Race 5

Malibu Queen

Maybe her chances can be upgraded slightly if this race has to be moved to the main track, but she's never run a race that is strong enough to suggest that she can get the job done in this spot; in a race where it looks like the winner will earn a Beyer Speed Figure in the 80's, her best figure is 70.

Tokyo Time

Half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Hungry Island (6-22, 758k over turf) looked like she was going to be a nice turf horse when she first showed up in blinkers, but her form never really improved; nevertheless, she's a legitimate player in this spot; runner up from latest won next out at GP on 1/24 going 7 1/2f over turf vs. 62k OPC's with a 93 Beyer.

Minx

Can't ignore the success that this barn has been having this year and they appear to have this miss heading in the right direction; that said, she's probably going to have to hope that Tokyo Time and Balashkova show up with sub par performances to have a chance at the top spot.

Balashkova (FR)

This filly looks like she did some nice work racing over turf in France, and she finds a realistic spot for her first start in America, and her first start as a 4-year-old; she shows up for a top turf barn with the addition of Lasix and her connections see fit to call upon John V.

This Is Nice (IRE)

Respect the fact that this miss has a fine turf pedigree but she's had her chances to show us what she can do, and she's yet to run a race that is up to the level of the top contenders in here; looking toward others.

Allie Sweet

This looks like a tough spot for her to make her second start over turf, but she certainly deserves another chance to see what she can do racing on grass, and this is her first turf start since moving into the Rodriguez barn; difficult to give her the nod over Tokyo Time and Balashkova though; her chances can be upgraded if this race gets moved to the main track.

Image of Anna

She showed up with an improved performance in her first route attempt to break her maiden in her latest start, but she only faced four rivals that day, and it's obviously going to take a much sharper effort to get over on the top contenders in here.

Long Blooming Rose

Like Image of Anna, she's another sitting on the AE list who improved with some extra distance to work with, but she's going to need to be ready to take her game to another level to get the job done in her first attempt against winners.

E Z Passer

She's the only one in here who can boast of having eight wins next to her name, but she'll have to see a few of these show up with less than their best to have a chance at her ninth career win; willing to include her underneath in exotics, but others entice more for the top spot.

Very Cherry Candy

Have to respect what she's done in her three starts since moving into this barn and this will have to be considered a favorable spot for her to land in if this race has to be taken off the turf; Pompa-owned miss merits top contender status.-Brian Pochman

Race 6

Candy Raider

3 straight 3rds, the last 2 at this level, so he's in no way out of his element; lack of speed at times leaves him with too much to do, but in his 2 March outings he wasn't that far off the pace, though remember those were very slow fractions which likely accounted for him being closer, and not that he showed more speed; tough to jump in with both feet as far as the win end goes but hey, you need someone to fill out those supporting slots in the exacta and tri, right?

Jesses Giant Dunk

The good news is he ran on for 2nd vs. $25K N2L foes here April 10 after nearly 2 months off; the bad news is he was no factor as the winner romped by 9; still, that was a forward move off the bench and now comes a class drop which may help as well; even so, his lack of speed often puts him behind the 8-ball tactically, but it's also nice to see Rice wheel him back so quickly (23% coming back in 7 days or less).

Ten Ed

Last 2 vs. winners weren't very pretty; in his defense, both came vs. NY-bred N1X foes so this is surely a class drop; freshening may help as well and Hennig pushing all the right buttons this meet from limited starters (3 for first 7, 43%); big maiden win Nov. 21 came on this track so maybe returning to this particular surface can get him back on track, along with the drop and the freshening.

Here He Fitz

Took the most important drop in the game (straight maiden to maiden claiming) and flourished as he blasted rivals on the inner March 23; we're not on the inner any longer and he's not facing maidens, but these are all maiden winners-only so the class hike isn't as big as it might otherwise be, and that last win may also mean the light has gone on for this guy.

Uproarious George

Tough to be too enthused; maiden win at SUF last summer was nice but he's been no factor really at any point in his 5 starts since vs. winners; even after a vacation he came back with 2 dull outings in March; the last, when 7th at 47-1, came on this track at this level, too; and even a return to his winning performance level might not be enough vs. these as the Beyer wasn't any great shakes (57).

Harley

Lone win came a while ago but after some dull form to end 2013 and a not-so-hot first run this year things perked up in March as he posted a couple better efforts; lack of speed can be an issue but those last 2 hint he's feeling good and last summer he showed some spark vs. tougher.

Let's Discuss

2 of 4 starts vs. winners were solid - and those were the 2 times he raced for a tag; other 2 times came vs. tougher; and even in those 2 times for a tag he was facing open foes so he drops today as he moves in vs. restricted; that being said, he's a 3yo facing elders for the first time and while he's not facing much power at all that's still a fairly hefty load to lift this early in the year; certainly has some positives but don't underestimate how tough it can be for a young 3yo to face elders.-Michael Hammersly

Race 7

Shot to Win

Not sure where his latest came from but it was an impressive performance and the horse he beat by over 10 came back to win a $35K maiden race for state breds; the water is obviously a lot deeper here but he is the second foal to race out of a mare that won 10 sprints and earned $271K so the breeding is there; contender.

Lieutenant Seany O

First of three from Jacobson ships in from California where he was eased and vanned off in his latest; works have been solid since he arrived here so we're willing overlook his last start; the main concern is that he appears to want more distance; horse that beat him two back in a key race finished second in a $50K claimer in his next start; prefer others.

Boss of Me

Another one shipping in from Southern Cal who might want more distance as his only win came going around two turns; it was a pretty impressive win though, and the Beyer Speed Figure he earned is the best in the field; Levine is on a roll at the meet and has solid stats in all the relevant categories; contender.

Pin and Win

He has done his best work sprinting so he won't mind the cutback in distance following an even effort in his second straight route; he was obviously overmatched in the Jerome but he came back with a decent effort and the first two horses won their next starts; his Beyer Speed Figures comes in a bit light, however; prefer others.

Blue Cherokee

Second from Jacobson looked good winning his first start here and has a right to move forward with a race behind him; it is never easy facing winners the first time, though, and the pace figures to be a lot quicker; dam didn't win, three of four sibs are winners but he's the top money earner in the family so far; prefer others.

Classic Salsa

Third from Jacobson looks the most interesting; he seemed comfortable stalking the 2-5 favorite and then blew then away when he was asked to take control of the race; horse that finished third won a MSW race at Tampa in his next start; first time for Jacobson is usually a good thing and if he runs it will be encouraging to see J R riding; dam was unraced and this is her first foal; the pick in a wide open event.

Takajo

Another one coming off a romping maiden win; his Beyer Speed Figure comes in a bit light compared to Shot to Win and Classic Salsa, however; he doesn't need to be involved early and could get a nice trip from a stalking position so he could be heard from late; Ortiz does abandon him to ride Shot to Win; however, consider for the exotics.

Executive Office

He'll appreciate the easier company after tackling first-level allowance horses in his first try with winners; he's another one that looks like he wants to be involved right from the start and he doesn't seem as quick as some of the ones he's facing; his career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 61 isn't going to cut it so we're going to pass.-Randy Goulding

Race 8

Pax in Terra

Pletcher is 19% the last 5 years with dirt to turf runners; homebred overcame wide trip in the mud victory; like the way he was inching toward the winner two back before folding up his tent when taking overland route in last; cozy slot and runner has a right to have a nice career as kin to double turf winner and near $350K earner Great Gracie Dane; needs a rebound effort.

Mental Iceberg

Connections thought enough of him to try the stakes but he's back on the preferred surface and just had to figure out a way to handle First Ranger; could see gelding getting another stalk and kick trip; slight improvement and he'll be right there.

Astronomo

Arch about 11% with first-time turfers in a 418-runner sample; Grade 1 winning sire earned almost half a million, never turfed; Group 3 winning dam could perform on grass; half bro Syzygy graduated on grass; never simple to beat winners right back especially when you graduate for a tag.

Tapitation

Kenneally 21 for 93 or 23% the last 5 years with dirt to turf runners with a median payoff of nearly 7-2 and 18 others ran in the money; Tapit about 13% with first-time turfers in a 464-runner sample; sire banked over $550K taking 3 of 6, was never on turf; dam handled grass, took a Group 3, earned nearly $200K; half sister Cheeky was a double winner on grass in France; place horse in the debut graduated next out with a 73 Beyer; considering the winner in last was clear, the last race was not all that bad; should give a very good account of himself.

Testosterstone

Birdstone about 8% with first-time turfers in a 246-runner sample; sire won multiple Grade 1s including Belmont Stakes, never turfed; dam was 2nd in best result; both siblings won multiple times but both tried grass to no avail; a clean start and it could be a whole new ballgame.

Prophet's Cat

Utopia about 4% with first-time turfers in a 143-runner study; sire took 2 Group 1s in Japan at 2, banked nearly $5 million, was second in best turf result; 6 for 64 dam won thrice on grass; nothing but winners in the family but the sibling that tried grass twice was out of the money on turf both times; needs a turn around after losing ground in the lane last time.

First Ranger

Ferraro 0 for 27 the last 5 years with dirt to turf runners but one ran second beaten a neck at 19-1;see Prophet's Cat for sire stats; dam was unraced; lone half bro Saturday Appeal won twice, never turfed, banked over $100K; he has more speed than he flashed in last and would expect rider to send hard and try to steal it.

Storm

Game in the debut but he has not been able to match that Beyer; backers can point to the fact that sibling Thunderestimate won a stakes on grass, banked nearly $190K; he lost best shot when wide early on in the last; has some things to iron out.

Balderdash

Published moves on the light side; show horse in last took a $75K optional, winner repeated in the Withers, then took the Gotham before running second beaten 3 and a half in Wicked Strong's Wood; look for pilot to take a hold, try to get over and save ground, make the one run.

Fleet First

Educated in the debut and he responded nicely to the blinks last time; look for him late if at all; needs to improve to repeat.

Frost Jordan

Hushion adds blinks and that is a potent ploy; he is 14 for 46 or 30% the last 5 years with first-time blinkers runners; colt was mugged last time; he was in tight, checked off heels, altered course and held for a slice; Maragh got a chance to figure him out; runner could be more focused with the blinks; don't ignore.-Brian Mulligan