Ante-Post Focus: Royal Ascot tips and analysis

Ante-post expert Gary Nutting has selections, plus analysis for three of Royal Ascot's most prestigious races.

It’s already business as usual in this most unusual of seasons, with Aidan O’Brien winning one Guineas and going close in the other at Newmarket over the weekend.

The impressive Love turned round the Fillies’ Mile form with Quadrilateral in the 1000, while Wichita did the same with Dewhurst winner Pinatubo in the 2000 – albeit Kameko pounced late to spoil the Ballydoyle party.

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The show quickly moves on to Royal Ascot, where O’Brien has already stated clear running plans for three Group 1 races – the Queen Anne, Prince Of Wales’s, and Gold Cup.

His principal contenders are all by Galileo, the sire of Love, and it could pay to mix them up in doubles and trebles – or a trixie – in the absence of any published entries ahead of six-day declarations starting to appear Wednesday.

First up is CIRCUS MAXIMUS, who looks a solid one to kickstart the bet, given he was a dual Group 1 winner over a mile last year, including at this meeting in the St James’s Palace.

He began last season as a potential Derby horse by winning the Dee Stakes at Chester and ran creditably at Epsom to finish sixth to stablemate Anthony Van Dyck.

In the circumstances it was some effort to win here just 17 days later dropping back to a mile for the first time since the autumn of his 2-year-old campaign.

The first-time blinkers he wore that day were retained for the rest of the year, and it will be interesting to see if O’Brien sticks with the headgear, especially on this return from a seven-month absence.

Either way, it looks significant that he has been kept in training rather than heading off to the stallion sheds, with the trainer clearly of the view that further top-flight success awaits.

Although the St James’s Palace was run on the round course, this straight-track event could suit him even better, with O’Brien saying in his recent ATR stable tour: “He enjoys a strong tempo and a mile seems to suit him best.”

JAPAN is a warm favorite for the Prince Of Wales’s, and while I wouldn’t normally tip a short price ante-post I’m prepared to make an exception for the purposes of this particular bet.

There will be each-way value to be had elsewhere, provided there are at least eight runners, but the Juddmonte International winner sets a high standard on that form having inched out last year’s winner of this race, Crystal Ocean.

Third in the Derby, fourth in the Arc, and winner of the King Edward VII here plus the Grand Prix de Paris, this is a good starting point before the step back up in trip for a colt who showed at York he’s got the necessary pace for 1 1/4 miles.

Like the first two selections, Gold Cup second favorite KEW GARDENS also boasts winning form at this meeting and sufficient ground versatility to make him a serious contender whatever the weather does in the next week or so.

He’s set for a fascinating rematch with Stradivarius, who is bidding for a hat trick in the race, having just got the better of him in the Long Distance Cup on this course on Champions Day last autumn.

John Gosden’s 6-year-old is odds-on with some firms to reverse that form over the extra half-mile, but did appear to have quite a hard race at Newmarket on Friday attempting a first 1 1/2-mile Group 1 success in the Coronation Cup won by trailblazing Ghayyaith.

And even if that race hasn’t left its mark, he still faces a formidable rival in Kew Gardens, who matched his year-older rival by winning a Queens Vase here and bettered him by adding a St Leger (Stradivarius third in his year).

The last four furlongs will be unchartered territory for the O’Brien horse, but he wasn’t stopping over two miles here on softish ground and probably deserves to be tighter in the betting with the favorite.

Recommended Bets (Scale 1-5 POINTS):
1 pt win trixie ( 3 doubles, 1 treble)

Queen Anne Stakes, Tuesday, June 16
Circus Maximus (8-1 Betfred, Coral, 7-1 general)

Prince of Wales’s Stakes, Wednesday, June 17
Japan (13-8 Coral, 6-4 Betfred, William Hill, 5-4 BetVictor)

Gold Cup, Thursday, June 18
Kew Gardens (7-2 Betfred, BetVictor, William Hill)