Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong Selections and Analysis for Wednesday, September 6, 2017

HAPPY VALLEY SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
(Wednesday, September 6, 2017)

RACE 1: #11 Spicy Double, #6 Our Honour, #1 A Fast One, #2 Sky Treasure
RACE 2: #2 The Sylph, #7 Fine With Me, #4 Happy Rocky, #6 Bo Duke
RACE 3: #2 Victory Follow Me, #1 Speedy Wally, #3 Choice Exchequer, #10 High Speed Metro
RACE 4: #4 Flying Monkey, #8 Dr Race, #5 Buddy Bundy, #7 Beauty Connection
RACE 5: #8 Fox Sunter, #4 Phantom Falcon, #3 Good Companion, #11 London Master
RACE 6: #5 Dollar Reward, #3 Powermax, #4 Peace N Prosperity, #1 Shanghai Master
RACE 7: #11 Go Go Win, #6 Thunder Stomp, #3 Kyrus Bowser, #2 Sky King
RACE 8: #3 Convincible, #12 Lucky Dollar, #1 Jetwings, #2 Almababy

RACE 1: CHEUNG HONG HANDICAP

#11 Spicy Double rarely runs over this shorter 1200m trip but fresh, with blinkers applied, it looks a shrewd move. With only 113 pounds to carry, he can give new trainer Frankie Lor a second winner from as many meetings. #6 Our Honour is a typical Class 5 horse in that he would be racing in better grades if not plagued by leg issues. He deserves attention fresh. #1 A Fast One has looked well in the mornings and appears primed for a big run. #2 Sky Treasure will have plenty of supporters with Joao Moreira aboard. He’s a chance.

RACE 2: HING MAN HANDICAP

#2 The Sylph has only won once in 35 Hong Kong runs – and two from 44 overall – so he is unreliable. However, in a race that lacks depth, he looks the logical selection under Joao Moreira. #7 Fine With Me is inconsistent but he is well-rated at his best. He is a danger. #4 Happy Rocky had a lacklustre season in 2016/17. He is at a good handicap mark now, however, and regular partner Brett Prebble jumps aboard again. #6 Bo Duke lacks a turn of foot but can fill a placing if he turns this into a stamina test.

RACE 3: HUNG FUK HANDICAP

#2 Victory Follow Me has taken time to drop to Class 5. He is one of a number of Danny Shum-trained horses who appear primed early, so he’s worth following here. #1 Speedy Wally made late ground to just miss over this course and distance in July. He’s capable if everything falls into place. #3 Choice Exchequer might find the 1650m a touch on the sharp side but he rarely ran a poor race in this grade last season. He’s a chance. #10 High Speed Metro is a Class 5 stalwart who can always bob up in this sort of race.

RACE 4: OI MAN HANDICAP

#4 Flying Monkey won this race last season. He wears blinkers for the first time here and back in Class 4, he looks very hard to beat. #8 Dr Race was very consistent last season. He should be around the mark yet again. #5 Buddy Bundy mixed his form last preparation before leg injuries brought his term to an end. He’s at a rating where he should be competitive. #7 Beauty Connection has his first start for Francis Lui here. He had his chance to break through last season, but perhaps the stable change could spark him up.

RACE 5: SHEUNG TAK HANDICAP

#8 Fox Sunter trialled very well alongside Sunday’s convincing winner Household King. He was on the verge of breaking through last preparation and he should be hard to beat here. #4 Phantom Falcon ran well at both courses towards the end of last season. He’s drawn awkwardly here but he is a contender. #3 Good Companion rarely runs a bad race. From the good gate, he should enjoy a nice run and should be in the finish. #11 London Master might need the class drop but with only 107 pounds to carry, he must be included.

RACE 6: THE COMMUNITY CHEST CUP

#5 Dollar Reward steadily improved through May and June before finishing on the bottom of a three-way blanket finish over this course and distance in July. If he has taken another step forward, he will be hard to beat. #3 Powermax hasn’t missed a top four spot in nine starts in Hong Kong. He has to defy an awkward draw but should figure. #4 Peace N Prosperity gets Matthew Poon’s seven-pound claim and looks well-suited here with only 121 pounds on his back. He’s a chance. #1 Shanghai Master is still acclimatising but has trialled well.

RACE 7: SHUN LEE HANDICAP

#11 Go Go Win doesn’t win out of turn, but he will go forward from gate 12. He carries 112 pounds with Matthew Poon aboard and the race lacks pace. #6 Thunder Stomp is a coming winner after placing at five of his last seven starts since a February win. Joao Moreira jumps aboard and he is a player. #3 Kyrus Bowser has run well at all three starts since arriving from Germany. He might need more time to acclimatise but he’s worth including. #2 Sky King has been woeful recently but could improve upon his return to Happy Valley.

RACE 8: YAU OI HANDICAP

#3 Convincible has won his last two starts over this course and distance. He has risen 15 points in two starts, a difficult task, but his trial – in which he split Seasons Bloom and Blizzard – was super. He looks hard to beat. #12 Lucky Dollar has promise and this preparation appears his chance to climb through the grades. Expect a bold effort at his Happy Valley debut. #1 Jetwings has issues, but at his best he can win this, even with top weight. #2 Almababy weakened out on Sunday over 1400m, but with race fitness under his belt, he could surprise.