Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Wednesday, March 7, 2018

HAPPY VALLEY SELECTIONS

(Wednesday, March 7, 2018)

:: Hong Kong: Free PPs, picks, and analysis

RACE 1: #9 Celebration, #6 Glenealy Prize, #4 Megatron, #8 Sweet Bean

RACE 2: #2 Ivictory, #5 Fantastic Eight, #3 California Whip, #1 My Darling

RACE 3: #6 Garlic Yeah, #11 Midnite Promise, #2 Happy Rocky, #1 Cloud Nine

RACE 4: #11 Nashashuk, #8 Applause, #7 Hero Time, #9 Clear Choice

RACE 5: #2 Har Har Heart, #12 Money Winner, #1 The Judge, #5 Hero Look

RACE 6: #11 Alcari, #7 Cheerfuljet, #4 Hard Promise, #3 Gamechangers

RACE 7: #1 Extremely Fun, #5 Smart Boy, #7 Lotus Breeze, #12 Most Beautiful

RACE 8: #1 Hang's Decision, #5 Winning Faith, #2 Green Energy, #4 Harrier Jet

RACE 1: BIRCH HANDICAP

#9 Celebration showed his first glimpse of form when stepping up to 1650m last time out. He should relish the step up to 1800m now and from a good draw, he can capitalise. #6 Glenealy Prize still has only one win from 25 starts. He is one-paced but he has also drawn well, so he should get every chance to finish in the numbers. #4 Megatron improved down to Class 5 last time out. He gets Joao Moreira aboard now and from the inside gate, he looks primed for this spot. #8 Sweet Bean is consistent and must be included.

RACE 2: FLAME TREE HANDICAP

#2 Ivictory has found himself near the top of Class 2 without ever contesting a Class 2 races, a rare feat indeed. Still, he looks yet another John Size-trained sprinter heading for better races and he can continue his progression with victory here. #5 Fantastic Eight has disappointed since stepping up to Class 2, but he can be forgiven for all three runs. A small field with not a great deal of speed should suit him and he looms as the main danger to the favourite. #3 California Whip hasn’t measured up to the level that looked possible last season, but he’s at a mark where another win appears near. #1 My Darling steps out for the first time since July and is having his first run for Paul O’Sullivan here. It’s better to watch him here, but he’s got the quality on his day to figure.

RACE 3: LARCH HANDICAP

#6 Garlic Yeah ran on well last time out, just finding Happy Rocky too good. He should enjoy a nice run in transit from gate four and everything indicates that he’s the horse to beat here. #11 Midnite Promise has been running well without winning in recent starts. He gets up to this distance for the first time but he looks capable of handling the 2200m. A second Hong Kong win is within reach. #2 Happy Rocky had been racing well before finally breaking through last time out. He only got a five-point penalty, so he’s definitely a chance of going back-to-back. #1 Cloud Nine is not the easiest horse to follow, but he should get out and race on the speed. He can place.

RACE 4: PALM HANDICAP

#11 Nashashuk returns to 1200m now after three decent enough runs this season. He did win over this course and distance in June off a higher mark, but he was disqualified and so that does not count on his record. With every chance from the inside gate, he should be right in contention here. #8 Applause won nicely from the rear two back before closing nicely again last time out. He’ll be finishing off strongly once more and he’s some chance again. #7 Hero Time has run well in three starts and should enjoy a nice run in transit. He can’t be dismissed. #9 Clear Choice is still putting it all together but he clearly has talent. Don’t overlook him.

RACE 5: THE ROTARY CENTENARY CHALLENGE CUP

#2 Har Har Heart had flashed his ability in a visually impressive win back in December, but it was his last victory that really stamped him as a horse capable of scoring in Class 3. He gets another chance in Class 4 and he still looks to have improvement in him, so he’s worth following from the good gate here. #12 Money Winner looked like he was going to win before he was just nosed out last start. He has no weight to carry and he’s a chance again. #1 The Judge ran well at his first Class 4 attempt last time out. #5 Hero Look steps back up to 1650m. He creates interest here.

RACE 6: YEW HANDICAP

#11 Alcari has not lived up to his impressive debut to date, but he also hasn’t been disgraced. Last time out, he was badly checked and the run should be completely forgotten. From a better draw, he shouldn’t end up as far back and he should get every chance to score a second victory. #7 Cheerfuljet was another who had no luck two back, before performing honestly last time out. He has the outside draw to contend with, but if he can get into a forward position, he will be hard to run down. #4 Hard Promise has drawn well and looks to be coming right. He’s a threat. #3 Gamechangers just can’t quite seem to break through, but he’s always a chance with even luck.

RACE 7: THE IRELAND TROPHY

#1 Extremely Fun has a strong course and distance record and he has been racing well enough since returning from a minor injury. Matthew Poon takes seven pounds off, a positive move, and he can get into the finish here. #5 Smart Boy was trapped wide last time out and had no chance. He has a slightly better gate this time around and if he can get into a better spot, he’s a chance. #7 Lotus Breeze returns to 1200m here. His best Hong Kong form has come over sprint trips, despite the fact he finished midfield in the 2014 Derby at Epsom, and back to this distance, he’s in contention. #12 Most Beautiful has staved off the drop in class with a number of honest efforts. He can run well again.

RACE 8: POPLAR HANDICAP

#1 Hang's Decision now holds the unique distinction of being the only non-Group winner to hold a track record at Sha Tin, having set the 1400m benchmark in July. He has not raced to that level this season and now finds himself back in Class 3 for the first time since this time last year. His last run was better, though, and with the drop in class, expect an improved effort from him. #5 Winning Faith has won impressively at his last two starts. It remains to be seen how much higher he can climb but he deserves consideration again. #2 Green Energy has been mixing his form but he is more than capable on his day. #4 Harrier Jet steps up to the extended mile for the first time, which may suit him.