Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Wednesday, July 4, 2018

HAPPY VALLEY SELECTIONS

(Wednesday, July 4, 2018)

RACE 1: #1 Showing Character, #10 Carry To Win, #9 Rugby Diamond, #2 Peace On Earth

RACE 2: #5 Sparkling Sword, #4 Open House, #9 Gold Velvet, #11 Victory Follow Me

RACE 3: #1 Roman Odyssey, #5 Dr Race, #11 Formula Galore, #8 Lunar Zephyr

RACE 4: #5 Amazing Race, #6 Noble Delight, #1 Peace N Prosperity, #8 Telecom Man

RACE 5: #5 Happy Rocky, #10 Aeroluminance, #7 Ultimate Dream, #6 Midnite Promise

RACE 6: #11 Zero Hedge, #2 Shanghai Master, #12 Super Leader, #10 Bulb Elite

RACE 7: #1 Friends Of Ka Ying, #3 Super Form, #7 Let's Take It Easy, #11 High Spirit

RACE 8: #8 Winning Faith, #2 Rivet, #1 Calculation, #10 Blocker Dee

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RACE 1: BALSAMINE HANDICAP

#1 Showing Character returns to Happy Valley, a course where he has generally produced his best form. He’s never won over this course and distance but he’s well-suited in Class 5 and, with the right run, he should be charging late. #10 Carry To Win ran well at his only course and distance effort. He has an awkward draw but, if he can find a position, he should be a chance. #9 Rugby Diamond is a difficult horse to assess. The return to 1000m is a plus but he can often lose his races at the break. If he can break on terms from gate three and get to his favoured leading position, he can stick around for a long way. #2 Peace On Earth can finish in the placings.

RACE 2: CAMELLIA HANDICAP

#5 Sparkling Sword looked to be rounding into form before a last-start failure over this course and distance with Joao Moreira aboard. The return to Matthew Chadwick looks a plus as he is one of the better judges of pace in Hong Kong and if he can get somewhere near the speed, this horse will be tough to run down. #4 Open House ran home into second last time out, producing his first real hint of form in Hong Kong. This trip should suit better and he can’t be overlooked. #9 Gold Velvet was a dominant winner down in Class 5, but found absolutely nothing last time out. He’s a chance again but he’s difficult to assess. #11 Victory Follow Me has no weight on his back and he’s not the worst.

RACE 3: CARNATION HANDICAP

#1 Roman Odyssey drops to Class 4 for the first time. He has shown some hints of talent up in grade and Zac Purton is a notable booking. Expect a big effort from him here, even under the big weight. #5 Dr Race shapes as a good chance here from a better draw, even if he is probably better at the 1000m. He won’t have to do much work, it will more be a matter of the gaps appearing at the right time. #11 Formula Galore disappointed last time out. However, if he can return to his prior form, especially now from a better draw with Joao Moreira in the saddle, he’s a chance. #8 Lunar Zephyr is a place hope yet again.

RACE 4: CARNATION HANDICAP

#5 Amazing Race returned to turf last start and ran well, sticking on for third last week behind Oriental Elite. Stepping up to 1200m suits and, while it does seem odd that Zac Purton is not retaining the ride, his championship rival Joao Moreira has a good chance of scoring a win here. #6 Noble Delight improved to win last time out at his fourth start. He will likely push forward again and he’s a chance once more. #1 Peace N Prosperity is racing well enough for the most part and he’s not without a hope. #8 Telecom Man is mixing his form but he could place.

RACE 5: GLADIOLUS HANDICAP

#5 Happy Rocky ran home well at Sha Tin last time out. He is a better Happy Valley horse and, although he might be looking for 2200m these days, he’s a chance of taking his trainer Almond Lee one step closer to the minimum win benchmark – he needs two wins in the last four meetings. #10 Aeroluminance has never been able to win in Class 4, while he’s only been able to place once from 16 starts. Still, he won well last time out, beating subsequent winner Penzance, and he has only 109 pounds on his back with Victor Wong’s claim. #7 Ultimate Dream is improving and a win is near. He’s a contender. #6 Midnite Promise is out of form since winning in April, but Joao Moreira takes the ride and he could get into the placings.

RACE 6: THE AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB TROPHY

#11 Zero Hedge crossed to lead from a wide gate last start, sticking on OK. From a better draw, he should enjoy a cosier run and he should be hard to beat under Joao Moreira. #2 Shanghai Master is racing consistently. He steps out for the first time in two months with Zac Purton taking his first ride aboard the Listed winner from Western Australia. He’s a chance yet again. #12 Super Leader has another good draw and he should be around the mark. #10 Bulb Elite has placed at his last two starts and it appears that a first Hong Kong win is near.

RACE 7: LOTUS HANDICAP

#1 Friends Of Ka Ying hasn’t lived up to his G1-winning juvenile form in Australia, winning only once from 30 starts in Hong Kong – although that Class 2 win came over G1 winner Helene Paragon, G2 victor Secret Weapon and last year’s Horse of the Year Rapper Dragon. Still, the former Almalad has been finding form in recent starts down in Class 3. He’s finally drawn a good gate and, with Zac Purton aboard, he looks one of the bets of the night. #3 Super Form is always a chance at this course and distance and Joao Moreira is a positive booking. #7 Let's Take It Easy may be on his mark, but he deserves another chance from a good draw. #11 High Spirit has shown better signs at his last two starts and he could place at odds.

RACE 8: WARATAH HANDICAP

#8 Winning Faith has been racing well this season, winning three races over this course and distance. He backs up from a fair run over 1800m last week and this appears an easier race. He has an awkward draw but if he can cross into a good spot, he’ll be right in contention. #2 Rivet makes his Happy Valley debut here. He’s been a disappointment in Hong Kong for the most part, but he’s improved steadily since being gelded after the Hong Kong Derby in March and the give underfoot that the city surface provides should prove helpful. He’s a chance. #1 Calculation was just nosed out on the Sha Tin dirt last time out. Stepping up to this trip should suit and he’s in contention. #10 Blocker Dee is a place chance from a good draw.