Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Wednesday, December 26, 2018

HAPPY VALLEY SELECTIONS

(Wednesday, December 26, 2018)

RACE 1: #6 Great Joy, #9 The Sylph, #7 Association Fans, #1 Impeccable Fellow

RACE 2: #7 Chaparral Star, #5 Curling Luxury, #10 Happy Warrior, #6 Gentry

RACE 3: #10 Sweet Bean, #9 Come On Wongchoy, #8 The Joy Of Giving, #1 Lucky Shiny Day

RACE 4: #2 Special Stars, #4 Mr Right, #1 Midnight Rattler, #5 Thou Shall Sing

RACE 5: #1 Super Leader, #12 Dragon Dance, #10 Dollar Reward, #5 Gallant Return

RACE 6: #4 Little Bird, #3 Telecom Brothers, #5 Harrier Jet, #9 Happy Time

RACE 7: #9 Faithful Trinity, #7 Happy Dragon, #2 Top Laurels, #5 Bank On Red

RACE 8: #4 Red Warrior, #3 Good Standing, #1 Joyful Trinity, #9 Winning Faith

RACE 1: URANUS HANDICAP

#6 Great Joy has made a habit of finding hard luck in his races. He has a good enough course and distance record and he only needs a hint of good fortue to be able to get into the finish here. #9 The Sylph is a noted non-winner but he did manage to come with a sweeping win to score last time out. He’s back up in Class 4 now, but he has Joao Moreira aboard from the inside gate with no weight on his back and now might be the time for him to strike again while the iron is hot. #7 Association Fans has drawn well again and he should enjoy the run of the race. As long as the gaps appear at the right time and he doesn’t get too stirred up pre-race, he should be around the mark. #1 Impeccable Fellow deserves consideration from a better draw.

RACE 2: URANUS HANDICAP

#7 Chaparral Star has been racing well since stepping up in trip, even though he hasn’t won in his last four starts. He has a good draw here and this isn’t a particularly strong race, so he deserves top spot in this event. #5 Curling Luxury ran boldly under Javier Castellano last time out; if anything, it was Castellano’s lack of upper body strength that saw him go under after racing waywardly in the stretch. He should be near the lead and, even if he is tackled by Super Euro Star, he should be able to perform well again. #10 Happy Warrior has no weight and may be stronger now to tackle this extended trip again. He should have every chance from the draw. #6 Gentry is next best.

RACE 3: NEPTUNE HANDICAP

#10 Sweet Bean is having his 81st start, a rare signal of longevity in Hong Kong. He’s no star, having spent 75 of his 80 starts to date in Class 5, but he has still managed to notch seven wins over the years. He should enjoy every chance here and he’s worth a play. #9 Come On Wongchoy has run second at his last two starts. A win is near and he rates as the main danger. #8 The Joy Of Giving is racing well. He gets Joao Moreira aboard and deserves respect once again. #1 Lucky Shiny Day makes his first appearance in Class 5. He won’t be long in this grade before he breaks through.

RACE 4: JUPITER HANDICAP

#2 Special Stars was a simply dominant winner second time out at Happy Valley last start, giving Irish jockey Colin Keane a first Hong Kong victory. He should be able to lay up slightly closer under Joao Moreira from a better gate and he should be charging over the top late. #4 Mr Right, ridden by Hugh Bowman on LONGINES International Jockeys Championship night, was attacked on the speed last time out and simply given no hope due to the presence of Japanese legend Yutaka Take aboard Lucky Lucky. If he is given any peace at all, he will be around the mark. #1 Midnight Rattler ran well down to Class 4 last time out. He deserves respect. #5 Thou Shall Sing also must be included.

RACE 5: SATURN HANDICAP

#1 Super Leader makes his maiden Class 4 appearance at his 33rd Hong Kong start and also steps out for Caspar Fownes for the first time. He was finding form at the bottom of Class 3 and, with a good run from gate three, he’s right in the mix. #12 Dragon Dance won first-up at the start of November to get up to Class 4 again. He ran well at his first run back in the grade last time out, finishing third to Lakeshore Eagle, and he deserves to go in once again. #10 Dollar Reward still hasn’t got a win in Hong Kong but he’s run well enough in recent starts to suggest he can finish around the mark. #5 Gallant Return should enjoy every chance in the run.

RACE 6: VENUS HANDICAP

#4 Little Bird was a big winner two back, but he then had to simply work too hard last time before fading for sixth. He’s proven that he can produce a huge effort when he gets circumstances to suit and there’s every possibility he’ll be able to get things his way in this spot. #3 Telecom Brothers has won his last two starts over the Happy Valley 1000m. He steps back up to 1200m and has to tackle the top of Class 3, even with the claim for Victor Wong. Nevertheless, he’s still a chance. #5 Harrier Jet generally finds form out of the middle of nowhere once he gets to a suitable rating. He’s there now, so he’s capable of improving at any time. #9 Happy Time ran well when settling handy two back, before settling well back last time out and not doing much. If he can get away on terms – a big if – he’s a place chance.

RACE 7: MARS HANDICAP

#9 Faithful Trinity won to start his season back in early September. He was poor in two starts after that before a fairly good last-start fourth to Experto Crede. He goes from the outside gate to the inside stall and, if he is able to get cover just behind the speed, he’ll be hard to beat. #7 Happy Dragon has been working his way into form. A colder ride may allow him to get into the mix here. #2 Top Laurels has to contend with the outside gate but he’s racing well this season and he can’t be ignored. #5 Bank On Red is hard to catch but is always worthy of inclusion in a race like this.

RACE 8: MERCURY HANDICAP

#4 Red Warrior can stamp himself as a Four-Year-Old Classic Series contender by winning here. He’s a nice type who won twice over this course and distance before two placings behind Super Chic at his last two starts. Super Chic did finish last behind nominal Hong Kong Derby favourite Dark Dream on Sunday, but Red Warrior appears to still have upside and can win again in this spot. #3 Good Standing has disappointed in his last two starts, perhaps as a result of sitting too close to the speed. If he is allowed some breathing room from gate three with blinkers on again, maybe he can challenge. #1 Joyful Trinity showed his first semblance of form in quite some time with a third to Conte last time out. He should be suited at the Valley and can’t be ignored. #9 Winning Faith hasn’t raced in two months but, with his good course and distance record, he’s right in the mix.