Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong Selections and Analysis for Wednesday, December 19, 2018

SHA TIN SELECTIONS
(Wednesday December 19, 2018)

RACE 1: #5 Lucky Storm, #3 Best Effort, #7 Mi Blanco, #8 Corre Rapido
RACE 2: #3 Star Superior, #12 Jimson The Famous, #5 Starlot, #9 Rochford
RACE 3: #4 Namjong Invincible, #7 Fox Cheunger, #9 Sunshine Universe, #3 Marvel Joy
RACE 4: #1 Sam’s Love, #6 Flying Godspell, #10 Nice Kick, #8 Winning Supreme
RACE 5: #10 Grand Harbour, #5 Flying Lover, #3 Bond Elegance, #9 Golden Effort
RACE 6: #2 Sky Melody, #4 Willie Way, #5 Great Treasure, #10 Gran Master
RACE 7: #10 Mission Tycoon, #1 Fight Hero, #4 Not Listenin’tome, #6 Fabulous One
RACE 8: #3 Healthy Luck, #1 Team Fortune, #8 Strathclyde, #10 Just Not Listening

RACE 1: SHA TIN PARK HANDICAP

#5 Lucky Storm makes his debut on the dirt, a surface on which he has trialled impressively before. He was just beaten last week at Happy Valley and he should be well-suited here. He’ll be hard to get past. #3 Best Effort has run some good races at the course and distance, although it’s his first dirt start for Caspar Fownes. He should enjoy a nice trail just behind the speed from gate three and he looms as a threat. #7 Mi Blanco will break through one of these days and must be included in all exotics. #8 Corre Rapido has run well without winning over the 1200m on the dirt and can’t be ignored stepping up to the extended mile on the surface.

RACE 2: KOWLOON TSAI PARK HANDICAP

#3 Star Superior drops down to Class 5 for the first time. He is a course and distance winner, also finishing second here three times, and it won’t take much for him to figure, even despite the wide gate. #12 Jimson The Famous has always produced his best over the Sha Tin dirt 1200m. He’s right at the bottom of the weights in the cellar grade. #5 Starlot has run poorly since getting down in grade but he is dangerous off this mark and can get into the finish at any time. #9 Rochford is yet to win but he is likely to go forward under Joao Moreira and he can stick on for a placing.

RACE 3: MORSE PARK HANDICAP

#4 Namjong Invincible has always been at his best over this course and distance. He disappointed at Happy Valley last time out but a return to the dirt could return him to the winners’ circle. #7 Fox Cheunger comes to the dirt for the first time. The son of Hussonet should be suited and he should also relish the step up to 1650m. He’s a threat. #9 Sunshine Universe has looked good in his trackwork and it won’t take much for him to step up here. #3 Marvel Joy is not without a hope in this spot.

RACE 4: VICTORIA PARK HANDICAP

#1 Sam’s Love returns to Class 4 here, where he has a strong record. He ran well at the course and distance back in October in this grade and, despite a wide gate, he should be hard to beat here. #6 Flying Godspell has been racing well of late and there’s no reason he can’t run well again. #10 Nice Kick doesn’t win out of turn but he’s the type who can figure in this spot from a good draw. #8 Winning Supreme should press forward and he might prove difficult to run down.

RACE 5: VICTORIA PARK HANDICAP

#10 Grand Harbour has been a hardy veteran over the years. He may be in a position where he can drop towards Class 5 now, but he is capable of pushing forward in a race devoid of speed and, for that reason alone, he’s worth a play here. #5 Flying Lover ran well last time out, although a long way behind Happy Tour. That run is good enough to win here in a race that doesn’t feature Happy Tour or a similarly progressive type. #3 Bond Elegance is honest enough to be able to figure in this spot. #9 Golden Effort can push forward and stick on for a placing.

RACE 6: KOWLOON PARK HANDICAP

#2 Sky Melody was a nice winner at the first Happy Valley meeting of the season. He didn’t race again until last week at the city track, but he couldn’t get a clear run and was not ridden out. He debuts on dirt, but he has the pedigree on his dam’s side to figure on this surface – his dam was unraced, but she is by Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex out of a half-sister to a multiple G1 winner on dirt in Borrego. With his form and his pedigree, he shapes as one of the better bets on the card. #4 Willie Way won two back before a disappointing effort last time out. He’s a two-time course and distance winner from four attempts and he must be included. #5 Great Treasure is racing well and must be included. #10 Gran Master should have taken confidence from his last win and he is capable of progressing further.

RACE 7: PENFOLD PARK HANDICAP

#10 Mission Tycoon has not raced since the final meeting of last season, when he disappointed and pulled up lame. He looked quite progressive last term though and the break should only have served him well. With no weight on his back, he should be respected here. #1 Fight Hero is a dirt specialist who finished second in the Korea Sprint in Seoul two back. His last run should just be ignored, as he has proven time and time again he is significantly better on this surface, and this run will aim to set him up for a Dubai campaign. It’s going to be tough with 133 pounds from gate 11, but he’ll be steaming home late. #4 Not Listenin’tome hasn’t raced on dirt since blowing the start and finishing seventh in the G1 Golden Shaheen at Meydan in 2017. He’s on a downward spiral but perhaps he deserves a chance in this spot. #6 Fabulous One steps out for Richard Gibson for the first time. The speedster bears close watching.

RACE 8: HONG KONG PARK HANDICAP

#3 Healthy Luck debuts on the dirt. He has a racing style which should see him suited on the surface ad he’s worth including here. #1 Team Fortune has to overcome an awkward draw, but he’s at a mark where he should be winning soon, especially over the dirt 1200m. #8 Strathclyde rarely runs a bad race at the course and distance and must be included again. #10 Just Not Listening has put together handy track and trip record and returning to the 1200m on dirt here looks a positive move.