Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Sunday, September 9, 2018

SHA TIN SELECTIONS

(Sunday, September 9, 2018)

RACE 1: #7 Hot Hot Pepper, #9 Ruminare, #2 Show Mission, #1 Master Viking

RACE 2: #5 Rattan, #3 Romantic Touch, #2 Jolly Banner, #1 Horse Of Fortune

RACE 3: #6 Patriot Hero, #2 Friends Of Ka Ying, #3 Cheerful Giggles, #1 Circuit Number Two

RACE 4: #9 Loaded, #11 Magic Agility, #6 Otouto, #8 Golden Cannon

RACE 5: #1 Endearing, #5 My Winner, #6 Witness Hunter, #9 Shining On

RACE 6: #2 Winning Supreme, #4 Dollar Reward, #9 Kirov, #10 Striking Mr C

RACE 7: #5 Smart Charade, #7 Presidentparamount, #3 Red Elysees, #2 Great Treasure

RACE 8: #2 Pakistan Friend, #1 Enjoy Life, #5 City Legend, #11 Hinyuen Swiftness

RACE 9: #8 Mythical Emperor, #5 California Archer, #1 Encore Boy, #10 Shimmer And Shine

RACE 10: #11 Aerohappiness, #1 Handsome Bo Bo, #9 High Five, #10 Beauty Energy

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RACE 1: ZHAOQING HANDICAP

#7 Hot Hot Pepper has long looked a winner in waiting, but he has now had 28 starts without a victory. He’s well into Class 5 now, with Zac Purton jumping aboard for the first time in 18 months. He’s weak and far from reliable, but perhaps it just all lines up perfectly for him here, especially if he can land just behind the speed from his favourable draw. If he has a rival for weakest horse in Hong Kong, it might be #9 Ruminare. Again, he’s a horse with talent but he doesn’t have a lot of intestinal fortitude. Still, he might end up on speed here from gate 11 and, in the hands of his new trainer Richard Gibson, maybe he can stick on at the finish. #2 Show Mission has never been tried over the Sha Tin 1000m but he’s run well at both attempts at the trip at Happy Valley, winning once and finishing second in the other. He’s not without claims. #1 Master Viking isn’t without a hope back in this grade.

RACE 2: THE KWANGTUNG HANDICAP CUP

#5 Rattan was a late entry for this race and looks well-placed, backing up after a strong second in a Class 2 at the course and distance last week. He carries 15 pounds less here against a group of well-exposed horses and, as a horse on the way up with a run under his belt, he should be very hard to beat in this spot. #3 Romantic Touch doesn’t win out of turn, with his last two victories coming in the Macau Hong Kong Trophy the last two years. He has finished out of the placings the last two years in this race, but if he gets into a forward position, he could be in contention for a long way here. #2 Jolly Banner won this race last year, his only victory of the season. He’s a chance yet again. #1 Horse Of Fortune steps out for Dennis Yip for the first time, having spent his entire Hong Kong career with Tony Millard to date. It’s unlikely he can go to a new level, but in a five-horse field, he’s not hopeless.

RACE 3: DONGGUAN HANDICAP

#6 Patriot Hero has shown glimpses of talent but has been unable to put it all together. Fresh might be best for him and this is very much a winnable race off his current mark. #2 Friends Of Ka Ying is too consistent for his own good. Many horses, by his stage, would be in Class 4, if not approaching that grade, but he remains competitive at the top of Class 3. He should win on paper, but he’s not the most reliable conveyance and it’s better trying to find one to beat him. #3 Cheerful Giggles didn’t measure up last season and missed the Hong Kong Derby, for which he was bought. The 2017 Queensland Derby runner-up should be improved with a summer under his belt and drastic improvement wouldn’t surprise. #1 Circuit Number Two won very impressively at the last meeting of the season. Horses were winning by big margins on the yielding track and so it may be best to watch him to see if he can reproduce that effort.

RACE 4: ZHUHAI HANDICAP

#9 Loaded began to find form once reaching Class 5 last season, but he couldn’t break through. He hasn’t trialled leading into this and he appears one to watch fresh, with trainer Richard Gibson applying the blinkers again. #11 Magic Agility has shown little in his 12 starts to date, finishing an average of 12.75 lengths behind the winner at average odds of almost 178/1. He’s rapidly arrived near the bottom of Class 5, but off his current mark, it wouldn’t shock to see him find improvement, especially returning to this course and distance. #6 Otouto finally got a win on the board at the last meeting of the season, before resuming with a fair effort last week. He should enjoy a nice run here and he’s not out of this. #8 Golden Cannon mixes his form but he’s on a favourable mark.

RACE 5: FOSHAN HANDICAP

#1 Endearing isn’t a frequent winner, but he’s consistent. He is a winner of two of his three fresh starts, taking his maiden at Gosford in Australia as well as scoring first-up last season. He looks the most logical winner in a race that doesn’t shape as particularly strong. #5 My Winner won at his third start in April but has only been fair in four starts since. In a race of this nature, though, he’s not without a chance. #6 Witness Hunter steps out of griffin company for the first time, having finished fourth on debut in July. It can be a tough ask for horses stepping up from griffin races, but in this event, it wouldn’t surprise to see him make a strong bid. #9 Shining On is next best.

RACE 6: HUIZHOU HANDICAP

#2 Winning Supreme backs up here, having run a strong race out on the speed with 10-pound claimer Victor Wong in the saddle at Happy Valley. His speed tends to suit him on the dirt and he’s one for one on the surface in this grade. If he has taken no harm for the run on Wednesday night, then he will be hard to beat in this spot. #4 Dollar Reward appeared on the cusp of a victory last season, particularly over the 1650m on this track, but he couldn’t quite break through. Zac Purton jumps back aboard now and it will be interesting to see him over the sprint trip fresh. #9 Kirov is at a mark where he can get into the finish at any time. #10 Striking Mr C finished last season with a decent course and distance effort. He’s still lightly raced and he can build on that.

RACE 7: SHENZHEN HANDICAP

#5 Smart Charade ran on well for second behind odds-on favourite King Opie last weekend over 1200m. The 1600m suits far better and, with a run under his belt, he should be well-suited here. #7 Presidentparamount had found form at the end of last season before a poor effort at his most recent start. Still, it wouldn’t surprise to see him perform well before again losing form. #3 Red Elysees rarely runs a bad race and shouldn’t be too far away from the mark here. #2 Great Treasure steps out for Me Tsui for the first time and he is capable on his day.

RACE 8: SHANTOU HANDICAP

#2 Pakistan Friend caught the eye on debut, flashing home from near last to score. He’s still green but he’s clearly heading higher and this race doesn’t look too much more difficult than what he tackled on debut. Expect another big run. #1 Enjoy Life finished second to Pakistan Friend in that race with Victor Wong taking 10 pounds off. He is five pounds worse off at the weights when taking into account Vincent Ho’s two-pound allowance, but even still, at his first run for Me Tsui, he deserves respect. #5 City Legend is at a mark where he is more than capable of scoring. The booking of Zac Purton is a positive pointer. #11 Hinyuen Swiftness is a place chance.

RACE 9: CHAOZHOU HANDICAP

#8 Mythical Emperor is at the lowest mark he’s ever been in Hong Kong. He’s got plenty of speed, which generally carries on this surface, and Zac Purton takes to the saddle. He’ll be hard to beat. #5 California Archer trialled brilliantly recently. He’s got an awkward gate once more, which makes his task difficult, but there’s no doubt he’s the logical danger. #1 Encore Boy looked comfortable on this surface when scoring in July. He has plenty of weight but there’s still more to come from him. #10 Shimmer And Shine is still untapped, but it’s worth seeing how he performs in this grade first.

RACE 10: GUANGZHOU HANDICAP

#11 Aerohappiness looks a horse of quite some promise. He was very green when winning in April, while he stuck on well after leading for second at his most recent start later that month. He looks a typical John Size project, in that he’s improving slowly and steadily without any pressure. Still, on what he’s shown so far, he looks like he’ll be more than capable of measuring up in Class 3. He’s the one to beat. #1 Handsome Bo Bo lost his way after winning comfortably three times in a row. There’s still some doubt about whether he can measure up at the top of Class 3, but if he gets an easy lead – possible, although not overly likely – then he could prove hard to gun down. #9 High Five should enjoy a nice run in transit and deserves respect down on a mark of 66. #10 Beauty Energy has no weight on his back and could sneak a placing.