Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Sunday, October 7, 2018

SHA TIN SELECTIONS

(Sunday, October 7, 2018)

RACE 1: #2 Chiu Chow Kid, #8 Rock The Tree, #5 Wonderful Chaser, #6 Top Ace

RACE 2: #4 Great Joy, #5 Let Us Win, #2 Winning Supreme, #1 Chater Thunder

RACE 3: #6 Styling City, #2 Money Boy, #1 Cao Cao, #8 Triumphant Jewel

RACE 4: #14 Fair Comment, #4 Chaparral Star, #5 Superior Boy, #6 Dutch Windmill

RACE 5: #3 Empire Star, #7 Shanghai Dragon, #5 Red Horse, #4 Vital Spring

RACE 6: #3 Pakistan Friend, #1 Sichuan Boss, #6 Bring It On, #10 Smart Baby

RACE 7: #5 Golden Dash, #4 Mighty Maverick, #8 Experto Crede, #2 Voyage King

RACE 8: #7 Super Star, #4 Flying Lover, #2 Looking Good, #1 Intrepic

RACE 9: #1 King Genki, #10 Imperial Concorde, #9 Chimboraa, #2 Hang’s Decision

RACE 10: #12 Harmony Hero, #6 Easy Go Easy Win, #4 Morethanlucky, #8 Coby Boy

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RACE 1: BIRCH HANDICAP

#2 Chiu Chow Kid has run well in two starts this season since getting the drop in grade. A win is clearly near and it could very easily come here. Veteran #8 Rock The Tree is a hit-and-miss galloper, who can always figure in a race like this. He is worth including. #5 Wonderful Chaser has placed at three of his last four starts, dating back to July. He’s likely to be around the mark again. #6 Top Ace has been a bitter disappointment, but he still ran well enough last time to suggest he can get into the placings here.

RACE 2: CHERRY HANDICAP

#4 Great Joy has looked a winner in waiting for much of the last 18 months, but for one reason or another, he hasn’t been able to break through. He was good enough first-up over a much-too-short 1200m and he should be able to get into the finish this time around. #5 Let Us Win has been a disappointment since his arrival in Hong Kong. He has performed OK in two starts for Peter Ho and he should be around the mark. #2 Winning Supreme should be out on the lead and is always tough to run down from that spot. #1 Chater Thunder is next best.

RACE 3: CHINESE BANYAN HANDICAP

#6 Styling City is still yet to prove himself against open company, but his two course and distance wins in griffin races were good enough and he doesn’t meet the strongest field here. #2 Money Boy spent the summer at Conghua, having shown himself to be something of a warhorse with 21 starts between September and June. The break might prove the making of him. #1 Cao Cao has trialled well ahead of his Hong Kong debut. He was well-exposed in Melbourne, but he can figure in this grade pretty quickly. #8 Triumphant Jewel has won his first two starts and may have one final hurrah in him.

RACE 4: CYPRESS HANDICAP

#14 Fair Comment is bred in the purple, being by 2010 G1 Underwood Stakes winner So You Think out of the stallion’s stablemate and 2010 Underwood runner-up Dariana. He has not shown much ability himself, but at the bottom of Class 5, he should get his chance to break through, especially from a good draw for new trainer Jimmy Ting. #4 Chaparral Star was a big winner two back before a fair effort last time out. He makes his debut for Caspar Fownes and he is right in contention. #5 Superior Boy has looked likely to score a victory many times in his 30-race career to date. He ran well first-up and he’s sure to be a chance again. #6 Dutch Windmill deserves contention.

RACE 5: FLAME TREE HANDICAP

#3 Empire Star has drawn well, the kindest gate that he has had in quite some time. He looks poised to finally break through after finishing in the top four at 10 of his 16 starts without winning. #7 Shanghai Dragon ran well fresh and should get a similar run here. The step up to 1400m suits him, too. #5 Red Horse has a win coming shortly, it’s just a matter of everything going his way for him to be able to gain that victory. #4 Vital Spring should be improved for his first-up run.

RACE 6: THE CHINESE RECREATION CLUB CHALLENGE CUP

#3 Pakistan Friend has been crying out for the mile and he should relish getting up to that trip now. He needs speed on but, if he gets it, he will be flying home. #1 Sichuan Boss heads to Sha Tin for the first time since February. He is so honest and consistent that he must be rated a chance. #6 Bring It On has run well in two starts in this grade this season. He is another who will be making up plenty of ground late. #10 Smart Baby is nearing a drop in grade. He could be bound for Class 5 but it wouldn’t shock to see him improve out of sight.

RACE 7: LARCH HANDICAP

#5 Golden Dash was just outgunned by Goko over the straight 1000m fresh. He missed a run at the typhoon-abandoned meeting over 1200m, but he should be ready now and he looks hard to beat in this spot. #4 Mighty Maverick performed OK at Happy Valley at his first run for Caspar Fownes. He should progress off that and he’s a chance. #8 Experto Crede has no weight on his back and he can’t be ignored in a race like this. #2 Voyage King won nicely in May, having come to hand quickly. He gets Zac Purton aboard now and he could easily progress rapidly this season.

RACE 8: PALM HANDICAP

#7 Super Star makes his debut here. The Snitzel four-year-old looks to have been screwed down for this race and it doesn’t appear the strongest event of all time. He’s a player. #4 Flying Lover has shown signs of coming to life in recent starts, including an opening day fifth. If he can progress from that, he’s a player. #2 Looking Good disappointed first-up after a tough trip. He’s capable of turning his form around second-up, although he has a more difficult draw. #1 Intrepic is stepping out in Class 4 for the first time. He’s dangerous in this spot.

RACE 9: POPLAR HANDICAP

#1 King Genki ran a solid race first-up on this surface over 1200m, a distance short of his best. He might be able to roll on the speed here and he’s always hard to catch under that scenario. #10 Imperial Concorde has a strong record on this surface and was racing well for Frankie Lor last year. He can’t be overlooked with no weight on his back. #9 Chimboraa has his first start for Danny Shum here and has spent the summer at Conghua. He did appear too high in the ratings when he arrived but he is now at a mark where he could find form at any time. He’s worth a chance on this surface. #2 Hang’s Decision always deserves respect in these races.

RACE 10: YEW HANDICAP

#12 Harmony Hero looked a very progressive three-year-old, both in Australia and in his first preparation in Hong Kong. He has trialled well and, from the good draw, he can begin his march towards the Four-Year-Old Classic Series here. #6 Easy Go Easy Win is another who shone as a three-year-old, although he lost his way towards the end of last season. With a summer under his belt, don’t be surprised to see him continue his march up the ratings once more. #4 Morethanlucky ran a creditable race first-up, making nice ground for second behind Regency Bo Bo. He still looks fairly high in the ratings but this race should provide a greater insight into where he is heading. #8 Coby Boy can figure from the nice draw.