Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Sunday, October 21, 2018

SHA TIN SELECTIONS

(Sunday, October 21, 2018)

RACE 1: #4 General Dino, #2 King Of Mongolia, #1 Good Days, #9 Le Panache

RACE 2: #3 Smart Charade, #1 Sunny Power, #5 Empire Star, #10 Golden Four

RACE 3: #10 Romantic Chef, #7 Destin, #3 Complacency, #8 Charizard

RACE 4: #5 Glorious Forever, #4 Insayshable, #2 Ruthven, #6 Stimulation

RACE 5: #1 Happy Sebring, #8 Bellagio, #2 Cordyceps, #6 City Legend

RACE 6: #11 Bigwood, #3 Famous Warrior, #13 High Volatility, #8 Patriot Hero

RACE 7: #1 Ivictory, #6 Hot King Prawn, #2 Mr Stunning, #7 Born In China

RACE 8: #2 Pakistan Star, #1 Beauty Generation, #10 Singapore Sling, #5 Werther

RACE 9: #3 Jing Jing Win, #9 Mighty Maverick, #8 Prance Dragon, #12 King Opie

RACE 10: #8 Good Standing, #2 Simply Brilliant, #5 Wishful Thinker, #6 Regency Bo Bo

RACE 1: PIAGET EXCELLENT HANDICAP

#4 General Dino has disappointed in two runs this season but he has been crying out for this sort of trip. The wider draw is generally a disadvantage over the Sha Tin 2000m with the short run to the first turn, but it could prove a blessing for him here, particularly if they do slow it up mid-race. Whatever the scenario, he’s worth a play here. #2 King Of Mongolia struggled at his only attempt at the trip in May, but down in this grade, he’s worth another chance. #1 Good Days is sure to have plenty of admirers after not having the clearest of passages last time out. #9 Le Panache is racing well and can perform strongly again.

RACE 2: PARMIGIANI FLEURIER EXCELLENT HANDICAP

#3 Smart Charade performed strongly fresh over an unsuitable 1200m before failing on a week’s back-up when stepped up to a mile. He hasn’t raced in six weeks and that may prove beneficial to him here. He’s worth another chance. #1 Sunny Power won with something in hand when stepped up to a mile in May, but he didn’t show a great deal at his last start in July. Expect him to take a step forward this season and race into Class 3 in no time at all. #5 Empire Star looks one who should appreciate a mile now and he’s a place chance. #10 Golden Four is another place chance with even luck.

RACE 3: FRANCK MULLER EXCELLENT HANDICAP

#10 Romantic Chef performed OK as favourite at his first start over the straight 1000m. As a son of Savabeel, he should only get better as the distances get longer, and while this is still going to be too short of his best, he’s more than capable in a race like this. #7 Destin is honest enough and he’s drawn well for his return. He’s sure to be around the mark. #3 Complacency is slowly turning the corner and looks on the cusp of finding the form he has promised since his debut win. #8 Charizard steps out for the first time here. He has an awkward gate but he has trialled well enough to suggest he could get into the placings.

RACE 4: IWC EXCELLENT HANDICAP

#5 Glorious Forever shaped as a horse with plenty of promise at the end of last season, looking very similar to his brother Time Warp with his relentless front-running style. He looks headed for stakes company in no time at all and he can begin his march towards the features with a win here. #4 Insayshable won well enough first-up at Happy Valley. He needs to take a step forward here, but he’s capable of doing so and he will be somewhere around the mark. #2 Ruthven returns as a first-time gelding, having also switched stables. He was in desperate need of the gelding operation and his trials suggest he can find his Queensland Derby-winning form this campaign. #6 Stimulation can improve markedly.

RACE 5: A. LANGE & SOHNE EXCELLENT HANDICAP

#1 Happy Sebring exploded through to win in May, but he has failed to find that same acceleration in three starts since. Perhaps a solid 1400m will prove to be his best trip and he is worth another chance in this spot. #8 Bellagio has talent but he is still learning what it is all about. He gets blinkers on for the first time and he’s a contender. #2 Cordyceps never got into the race first-up. His win in July rated highly with a very slick final sectional, but he needs to show more to prove that wasn’t a one-hit wonder. #6 City Legend has been beaten by narrow margins at his first two starts this term. He will be short, and while he may be worth opposing at a ridiculously narrow quote, he is without a doubt a chance.

RACE 6: H. MOSER & CIE. EXCELLENT HANDICAP

#11 Bigwood has improved with every start he’s had in Hong Kong, typical of many European imports. He has an awkward draw here but he is likely to head back anyway. If he gets a suitable tempo, he will be flashing home late. #3 Famous Warrior was just outbobbed by Land Grant at the National Day meeting. He will win one of these days – it’s only a matter of time. #13 High Volatility will likely get out and lead here. He’s always dangerous if afforded his own way on the speed. #8 Patriot Hero is too inconsistent to follow with any certainty but he has the talent to win a race like this o his day.

RACE 7: G2 PREMIER BOWL

#1 Ivictory could not have been much more impressive in defeat first-up when just falling short behind stablemate Hot King Prawn. He is better suited getting up to 1200m and, while he has to carry 133 pounds, two of the last three winners in Mr Stunning (2017) and Able Friend (2015) hauled top-weight to victory and he looks the one to beat with a run under his belt. #6 Hot King Prawn did have the better of Ivictory first-up, although he was in receipt of 16 pounds that day. He still has 11 pounds in hand over Ivictory, so that gives him a strong chance yet again. #2 Mr Stunning won this race last year. He switched from John Size’s yard into the care of his former assistant Frankie Lor soon after his last run in April and, if Lor can unlock his best, he will be right in contention. Trainer Francis Lui has two runners, neither of the ilk of his 2016 victor Lucky Bubbles, but both Born In China and Jumbo Luck shape as place chances. Perhaps give a slight edge to #7 Born In China back to 1200m.

RACE 8: G2 SHA TIN TROPHY

A terrific race with most of Hong Kong’s best gallopers at a mile and beyond stepping out – Derby winner Ping Hai Star and Kranji Mile victor Southern Legend are the most notable absentees. #2 Pakistan Star looked every bit the superstar he had always promised to be in two G1 wins to end last season. He has trialled very well and, even though he has to pass his notorious trouble spot from the chute at the 1600m, he can perform strongly first-up. #1 Beauty Generation was named Horse of the Year last season after three G1 wins throughout the term. Despite that title, though, his first-up win was perhaps the first time that he has looked like a champion. He is possibly poorly-weighted now compared to horses like Pakistan Star, but that Celebration Cup win was simply stunning and he could have more to come this term. #10 Singapore Sling looks well-weighted with only 117lb to carry and he deserves consideration. #5 Werther has run some good races over this trip and raced well in Japan at his most recent start. He will improve for the run but he can place fresh.

RACE 9: CORUM EXCELLENT HANDICAP

#3 Jing Jing Win has all the talent in the world but his temperament has ensured that his progress has stalled around his current mark. He’s capable of winning off this rating, as he showed fresh, and getting back to 1200m should prove suitable too. He’s hard to beat. #9 Mighty Maverick has run well in two starts for Caspar Fownes. He should get the perfect run from gate two and he’s the main danger. #8 Prance Dragon ran a big race at monstrous odds first-up. He has a bad draw here, but if he can get across into a handy position, there’s no reason he can’t run another bold race. #12 King Opie can improve back to Sha Tin.

RACE 10: GRAND SEIKO EXCELLENT HANDICAP

#8 Good Standing has had issue after issue since arriving in Hong Kong, but there’s no doubting he has plenty of talent. He’s never really had the chance for a proper second-up run for John Moore and he’s always looked as though he’d improve for the outing each time he’s stepped out. Now, he gets that chance and he should be hard to beat. #2 Simply Brilliant looms as the main danger, having won three of his last four starts at the back-end of last season to push his rating into triple-figure territory. He’s trialled well and he is a contender. #5 Wishful Thinker steps beyond 1200m for the first time in his career. While his fast-finishing style suggests that 1400m should prove ideal, he might just be better suited to a strongly-run 1200m. Nevertheless, he deserves inclusion. #6 Regency Bo Bo is always a chance when he gets his own way out in front. He can’t be ruled out.