Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Sunday, March 25, 2018

SHA TIN SELECTIONS

(Sunday, March 25, 2018)

:: Hong Kong: Free PPs, picks, and analysis

RACE 1: #5 Rugby Diamond, #10 Carry To Win, #2 Winning Controller, #6 Massive Millennium

RACE 2: #2 Refined Treasure, #8 Striking Mr C, #3 Complacency, #6 Just Not Listening

RACE 3: #1 Right Call, #7 Empire Star, #3 Merrygowin, #13 Good Choice Ahead

RACE 4: #11 Audacity, #4 Remarkable, #7 Ever Laugh, #12 You Have My Word

RACE 5: #9 Tai Smart, #8 Marqula, #2 Unicron Jewellery, #3 Agree

RACE 6: #4 Elite Spirit, #5 Elite Boy, #6 Goldie Flanker, #1 Flying Lover

RACE 7: #4 Dragon Master, #2 Perpetual Treasure, #10 Star Of Joy, #1 Winning Vangogh

RACE 8: #7 Top Beautiful, #2 Mega Heart, #1 Baltic Whisper, #5 Hair Trigger

RACE 9: #5 Easy Go Easy Win, #8 Simply Brilliant, #3 Sergeant Titanium, #4 Citron Spirit

RACE 10: #13 Raging Storm, #12 Friends Of Nanjing, #3 Turin Redstar, #10 Lady First

RACE 1: AMBER HANDICAP

#5 Rugby Diamond is a first Hong Kong ride for 10-pound apprentice Victor Wong, who arrives having risen to the top of the ranks in Tasmania and South Australia. Rugby Diamond is a fairly straightforward first ride in that he should go forward and prove hard to run down, especially with only 117 pounds on his back once the claim comes into play. #10 Carry To Win is racing well and can’t be ignored at his dirt debut. #2 Winning Controller is another stepping out on this track for the first time. The step back in trip might prove a plus, but he does have an awkward gate to overcome. #6 Massive Millennium is also drawn poorly but he’s sure to be in the mix somewhere.

RACE 2: AMETHYST HANDICAP

#2 Refined Treasure had nothing go right on debut but showed his true ability last time out, winning in the manner of a nice horse. He’s now saddled with top-weight, but if he is able to get out towards the lead again from his middle-of-the-line draw, he should be hard to beat again. #8 Striking Mr C drops back to 1000m after a fair debut over 1200m. He has trialled well enough since and he has a favourable draw, so look for improvement from him. #3 Complacency produced a big win from a near-impossible position over the straight 1000m last time out. He has drawn better this time, but the half-brother to G1 winner Contentment will need to jump cleaner if he is to take advantage of the gate – otherwise, it could prove a negative. #6 Just Not Listening is immature and raw but can progress from his debut.

RACE 3: CRYSTAL HANDICAP

#1 Right Call drops back into Class 4 now, a grade where he has a 9:3-2-2 record. The return to the 1400m at Sha Tin appears a big plus too, while Joao Moreira is a positive jockey booking. Everything seems set for him to return to the winners’ circle. #7 Empire Star went off at a silly price last time and ran well behind Raging Storm. He gets his first good gate in four starts and that could prove the difference this time around. #3 Merrygowin is another class dropper. The outside gate will make things difficult, but he should find this opposition more to his liking. #13 Good Choice Ahead will likely be finishing off strongly once again.

RACE 4: EMERALD HANDICAP

#11 Audacity only just prevailed over this course and distance two back, albeit from a poor draw in 14, while he ran well at Happy Valley over 2200m last start. A good draw should help him here, and while he may find Class 4 a bit difficult, if he’s ever to show up in the grade, it will be this time. #4 Remarkable has been impressive in two dirt wins at his last two starts. He now returns to the turf 17 points higher than his last run on the surface, but he had been rounding into form on the grass and there’s no reason to think that he can’t continue to progress now the penny has dropped. #7 Ever Laugh has been progressing the right way and his first Hong Kong win was solid. The 2000m should suit even better. #12 You Have My Word was a shock winner over a mile in Class 5 when he was first-up for nearly a year. He needs to prove that was no fluke, but he should appreciate this trip and perhaps it has all clicked for him.

RACE 5: THE 18 DISTRICTS CUP

#9 Tai Smart disappointed as favourite last time out, but if that effort can be forgiven, then he deserves to be given another chance here. Perhaps the step back to a mile might prove in his favour. #8 Marqula has had plenty of issues since he arrived from the United States, but his last-start win suggests he might have finally turned the corner. If he can reproduce that effort, then he is more than capable here. #2 Unicron Jewellery is racing consistently and should find himself in the mix. #3 Agree looks the only leader in here and must be included.

RACE 6: JASPER HANDICAP

#4 Elite Spirit has been racing well without winning since dropping back into Class 4. A win is near, and there is every chance it could come in this spot. He should find himself midfield and can find the line strongly. #5 Elite Boy looms as the logical threat. He’s progressing well and from a good draw here, he should enjoy an easy speed-tracking run. He’s right in the mix. #6 Goldie Flanker will be flying home, as he always does, while #1 Flying Lover improved for the drop in grade and can take another step forward here.

RACE 7: PERIDOT HANDICAP

There is speed to burn in this contest, which is why it might make sense to side with a horse like #4 Dragon Master. He only boasts one placing from six starts on this track but he is usually making up ground. He is back down to the mark where he won most recently last season, and from the inside, he should be able to track up nicely. #2 Perpetual Treasure is always tough to beat over this course and distance and in this grade. He will also go forward but he’s right in contention. #10 Star Of Joy has trialled well and creates interest at his first dirt run. He’s a chance. #1 Winning Vangogh has finished second at his last four starts over this course and distance. He will be sure to be in the mix somewhere.

RACE 8: RUBY HANDICAP

#7 Top Beautiful returns to the races for the first time since December. He did well in what was his first preparation, and a recent trial has him spot on for this. He doesn’t have the best draw over the straight 1000m, but if he can jump out well and find a position near the speed, he’ll be hard to beat. #2 Mega Heart clearly has talent but he mixed his form in three runs earlier this season. He hasn’t raced since November, but if he can duck and weave through the field from his advantageous gate, he could finish over the top. #1 Baltic Whisper should have every chance from gate 10. #5 Hair Trigger is inconsistent but should be flying late.

RACE 9: SAPPHIRE HANDICAP

#5 Easy Go Easy Win has already performed very well for a three-year-old and has lived up to his juvenile form in Australia around the likes of Kementari. The application of blinkers looks a crucial move and if he gets a bit more speed on here, he can finish over the top. #8 Simply Brilliant had been running well before finally breaking through last time out. He will be around the mark. #3 Sergeant Titanium is honest and he’s always tough to run down on the speed. #4 Citron Spirit probably didn’t see out 2000m last time out. Back to a mile, he’s a chance.

RACE 10: TOPAZ HANDICAP

#13 Raging Storm backed up an impressive run on debut with a big win second-up. He gets into Class 3 now but he has no weight on his back, too. Everything points to him making it two wins in a row. #12 Friends Of Nanjing didn’t show a lot at his first run for Dennis Yip over an unsuitable 1200m in January. The step up in trip suits now and Chad Schofield jumps aboard. He’s more than capable of winning off his current mark. #3 Turin Redstar finally broke through last time out. He should be around the mark again. #10 Lady First is worth consideration.