Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Sunday, December 23, 2018

SHA TIN SELECTIONS

(Sunday, December 23, 2018)

RACE 1: #4 Happy Sound, #1 Manful Star, #11 First Beaut, #7 Trendiful

RACE 2: #7 Happy Rocky, #2 Good Days, #4 Bring It On, #6 Garlic Yeah

RACE 3: #1 Perfect Match, #2 Witness Hunter, #4 Shinealot, #3 Nordic Warrior

RACE 4: #2 Right Choice, #1 Good For You, #8 Happy Force, #12 Swot Windicator

RACE 5: #14 Care Free Prince, #1 Green Card, #11 Fun Times, #4 Flame Lily

RACE 6: #6 What A Legend, #10 Tornado Twist, #2 Guy Dragon, #3 Super Model

RACE 7: #6 Harmony Victory, #5 Dark Dream, #4 Super Chic, #3 Prawn Baba

RACE 8: #8 Waikuku, #9 Kasi Farasi, #4 Eptimum, #1 California Turbo

RACE 9: #4 Bravo Watchman, #3 Baltic Whisper, #8 Mr Lumieres, #6 Styling City

RACE 10: #10 High Volatility, #9 Ping Hai Treasure, #6 Good Beauty, #1 Winning Endeavour

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RACE 1: WONG YI CHAU HANDICAP

It is rare to see the Class 5 gallopers tackle the straight 1000m, with only five races at the course and distance for the cellar-dwellers dating back to the start of 2015. #4 Happy Sound won the most recent of these events in September. His rating still remains quite high but, if he can get out somewhere near the lead, he’ll be there at the finish. #1 Manful Star has run well at the course and distance in the past. He faces his easiest test in quite some time and is a leading player here, even from the inside gate. #11 First Beaut is sure to have plenty of support and shapes as a contender. #7 Trendiful has never produced his best here but that was quite some time ago. He could perform well with the right run.

RACE 2: WONG SHEK HANDICAP

#7 Happy Rocky steps out for his 69th start here, a rare mark of longevity that few Hong Kong gallopers ever reach. The son of the recently-deceased Champs Elysees ran a bold race last time out and gave every reason to suggest that he can score another win here. #2 Good Days needs everything to go his way, but he’s a chance once again in an open race. #4 Bring It On is honest and, although e doesn’t win out of turn, he’s deserving of inclusion at his first attempt at the Sha Tin 2000m. #6 Garlic Yeah can improve drastically stepping out to this trip.

RACE 3: THE GRIFFIN TROPHY

Far from a vintage end-of-season highlight for the three-year-olds, with none of these looking likely to emulate the deeds of Hong Kong Derby winner Luger or multiple G1 winner Pakistan Star, both winners of this race early in their respective careers. #1 Perfect Match almost picks himself. He produced a solid win first-up, while his effort last time out over this course and distance was good – even if he was flattered by the four and a half length winning margin. At set weights, he’s going to be hard to beat. #2 Witness Hunter has won his last two starts at the course and distance – and, unlike Perfect Match, he has done it against the older horses. Perfect Match is likely to have first run on Witness Hunter which gives him the nod, but Witness Hunter will be running at him late. #4 Shinealot and #3 Nordic Warrior are capable of filling the placings.

RACE 4: TAI LONG TSUI HANDICAP

#2 Right Choice sprinted nicely to win on debut on the Sha Tin all-weather track. This is a different race entirely but his opposition doesn’t appear overly strong and he can make it two from two with the right run. #1 Good For You is racing well now that he is back down in Class 4. The booking of a stronger rider in Alexis Badel may prove a good move too after he was wayward under Javier Castellano last start. #8 Happy Force still looks to have improvement in him and he can’t be dismissed. #12 Swot Windicator could get into the placings at odds.

RACE 5: TAI LONG TSUI HANDICAP

#14 Care Free Prince doesn’t win out of turn, but he’s always a chance of winning when he can get out and roll on the lead with no weight on his back. He looks well-placed here and he’s right in contention. #1 Green Card hasn’t lived up to expectations during his Hong Kong career, but perhaps dropping to Class 4 for the first time might allow him to gain another victory, especially with the blinkers going back on again. #11 Fun Times has run well enough in four starts to date. He can be expected to take another step forward here. #4 Flame Lily can place again.

RACE 6: PAK TAM CHUNG HANDICAP

#6 What A Legend showed promise with a debut second to Multimillion about a month ago. He strikes an easier race here and it won’t take much for him to figure at start two. #10 Tornado Twist can be expected to improve into his second outing, just as all John Size horses tend to do. He has another awkward draw but he’ll likely be somewhere around the mark. #2 Guy Dragon steps out for the first time for Chris So, who has already had two unraced debutants win in the last month. He can’t be overlooked. #3 Super Model was disappointing first-up, but there is talent there. He bears close watching.

RACE 7: LONG KE HANDICAP

#6 Harmony Victory stamped himself as a legitimate Hong Kong Derby contender last time out with a strong win over 1800m. The 2000m should suit him down to the ground. The major query is if they try to use the better gate to sit handier in the small field; that would be a negative on face value, as he has appreciated being ridden cold in two of his three starts in Hong Kong. If they save him for one late run, he’ll fly home over the top. #5 Dark Dream ran fine in a race in which no runner really covered themselves in glory fresh. He needs to take a step forward here stepping up to 2000m second-up, but expect to see a good run as he takes another stride towards March’s Derby. #4 Super Chic is finally living up to his Italian form, winning his last two starts in nice style, even despite the narrow margin. His best has come at Happy Valley, but this race appears suitable now. #3 Prawn Baba can get into the placings here.

RACE 8: LUK WU HANDICAP

#8 Waikuku was a winner of a maiden at Leopardstown from two starts in Ireland. He has trialled well and looks geared up to make a winning debut here. #9 Kasi Farasi has run well at both starts to date, particularly relishing a quieter ride last time out. He’s worth including in this spot. #4 Eptimum has, for the most part, disappointed in his time in Hong Kong. He gets a few things in his favour here though, including a good draw and the claim of Matthew Poon, that could help him get into the finish. #1 California Turbo will improve over further but bears watching at his first Hong Kong start.

RACE 9: CHEK KENG HANDICAP

#4 Bravo Watchman rarely runs a bad race over this course and distance, with three wins and two placings from six outings over the Sha Tin 1000m. He should get every opportunity to add another victory here. #3 Baltic Whisper is coming off two poor efforts, but he is drawn to take advantage and he can easily get into the finish again with the right run. #8 Mr Lumieres ran poorly last time out when pulling up with blood in his trachea. If he pulls up with no health issues, he’s a player. #6 Styling City takes his first crack at Class 2 here. He will win in this grade in time but it might be a case of a bit too much, too soon for the three-year-old. He’s worth opposing on a win line.

RACE 10: PAK TAM AU HANDICAP

#10 High Volatility has put together a string of runner-up finishes at his last four starts. He continues to race well, getting out on the speed and proving tough to get past, and from the wide gate, Derek Leung should adopt similar tactics here. #9 Ping Hai Treasure was a nice winner at his only start on the Lyon fibresand in October last year when named Learning To Fly and trained by Andre Fabre. He was the sale-topper at the Arqana mixed sale in February and arrives with big wraps. He’s trialled well enough to show up here at his Hong Kong debut. #6 Good Beauty returns to Sha Tin for the first time since October. He’s racing well and must be included. #1 Winning Endeavour can progress from a good first Hong Kong outing.