Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Sunday, December 2, 2018

SHA TIN SELECTIONS

(Sunday, December 2, 2018)

RACE 1: #6 Mi Blanco, #3 Holy Unicorn, #4 Triumphal Win, #7 Sweet Bean

RACE 2: #5 Hainan Star, #2 Shinealot, #7 Strapping Bauhinia, #1 Perfect Match

RACE 3: #9 Lucky Shiny Day, #5 Good Fit, #8 Enjoyable Success, #2 Travel First

RACE 4: #11 Jimson The Famous, #10 Corre Rapido, #7 Dragon Warrior, #4 Royal Prerogative

RACE 5: #1 Happy Tour, #2 Dr Proactive, #12 Jumbo Bus, #9 Dominator

RACE 6: #1 Refined Treasure, #3 Best Sense, #10 Speedy King, #7 California Gungho

RACE 7: #1 Dashing Gainer, #3 Happy Winner, #5 Big Party, #8 Startling Power

RACE 8: #5 Last Kingdom, #3 Tang Fleming, #2 Lockheed, #7 Nuclear Power

RACE 9: #12 Glorious Spectrum, #3 Ugly Warrior, #8 Moment Of Power, #11 Encore Boy

RACE 10: #1 Mr So And So, #5 Sun Touch, #10 Relentless Me, #6 Vincy

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RACE 1: ASHLEY HANDICAP

#6 Mi Blanco has gone 17 starts without a win, but all of his top four finishes have been on this surface. Oisin Murphy takes the ride and he gets his chance for a first win here. #3 Holy Unicorn has already won twice this season, both times over the Happy Valley 1800m. He has run some decent races on the dirt in the past and it wouldn’t surprise to see him produce a big performance in this spot. #4 Triumphal Win has run some good races since getting down to Class 5. He will be somewhere around the mark. Veteran #7 Sweet Bean has his 80th start here. He generally runs well over this course and distance and he’s a contender yet again.

RACE 2: CAMERON HANDICAP

#5 Hainan Star has run well for placings at his first two starts. He’s drawn well again and he should be suited by the step up to 1400m. He’s a leading player in this spot. #2 Shinealot ran well enough on debut at Happy Valley. He’s a galloper who will need a trip in time, so he should be suited by 1400m at his second start. Expect a bold showing. #7 Strapping Bauhinia, a son of Tavistock, is suited at this trip for his debut. He bears close watching. #1 Perfect Match just prevailed last time out and can’t be overlooked.

RACE 3: CARNARVON HANDICAP

#9 Lucky Shiny Day ran well enough on the dirt in July, finding Elusive State much too good that day. To be fair, Elusive State has since gone from a rating of 43 up to 80, so perhaps it wasn’t the worst effort. He ran well again two back and getting back to the dirt should give him every chance to break through. #5 Good Fit won at the course and distance two back before making good headway late last time out back to the 1650m. He’s still on a rating where he can win again. #8 Enjoyable Success is quirky but he did run well at the track and trip two back. He can’t be dismissed. #2 Travel First is next best.

RACE 4: HANKOW HANDICAP

#11 Jimson The Famous is nearly impossible to catch with only one win from his 46 starts. That victory did come over this course and distance, though, and with only 114 pounds on his back, this might be his final chance to get into the winners’ circle again. #10 Corre Rapido has promised to break through in a number of runs over the Sha Tin dirt 1200m. He’s worth including here. #7 Dragon Warrior improved considerably last time out. If he can progress from that, he’s a player here. #4 Royal Prerogative can improve at his first start on the dirt.

RACE 5: MIDDLE HANDICAP

#1 Happy Tour won well two back before proving no match to Honest Way last time out. The dirt is an interesting move but he’s looked to move well over the surface and he’s worth a spin in this spot. #2 Dr Proactive won over this track and trip in May and was solid in two course and distance efforts either side of the off-season. He’s a chance at his second start for Jimmy Ting. #12 Jumbo Bus has shown flashes of talent at times. He has no weight and the dirt could bring out a new side to him. #9 Dominator has an awkward draw but can’t be ruled out.

RACE 6: THE PENINSULA GOLDEN JUBILEE CHALLENGE CUP

#1 Refined Treasure would normally be the type of horse worth taking on – first-up after seven months, returning from knee surgery and having had issues with both knees within the last three weeks, facing the top of Class 3 at just his second start in the grade. It’s a long list as to why he can’t win. However, he faces perhaps the easiest Class 3 he could possibly have found and he won’t need to be at his peak to win here. #3 Best Sense steps out in Hong Kong for the first time. Named Sun Quan in Australia, he finished second to The Bostonian in the Listed Daybreak Lover Plate (1200m) two back before finishing fifth to speed machine Nature Strip in the Creswick Stakes (1200m) over the Flemington straight six last time out. He’s trialled well and he won’t need to be at his best to figure in this spot. #10 Speedy King and #7 California Gungho are next best, but it’s all about the top two really.

RACE 7: MIDDLE HANDICAP

#1 Dashing Gainer has run a number of nice races over this course and distance. Victor Wong takes seven pounds off his back, meaning he’s only carrying 126 pounds, and that could prove the crucial factor here. #3 Happy Winner has trialled well enough and, in a pretty average line-up, he could factor. A son of Elusive Quality, starting out on the dirt looks a smart move. #5 Big Party was heavily favoured on debut, finishing fifth. From a decent draw, he comes into play. #8 Startling Power isn’t without place claims.

RACE 8: MODY HANDICAP

#5 Last Kingdom has talent, but he’s got plenty of little quirks and niggles that have made him a difficult proposition here. Still, he creates interest heading to the dirt and he might be worth a flyer at odds in this spot. #3 Tang Fleming gets seven-pound apprentice Victor Wong aboard. That claim might be the catalyst for him to break through. #2 Lockheed has been a disappointment for the most part. It’s going to fall into place for him one day and, up to a mile, it could be here. #7 Nuclear Power could go back-to-back now that he’s broken through.

RACE 9: NATHAN HANDICAP

#12 Glorious Spectrum makes his Hong Kong debut. There was nothing much about his Italian form that suggested he could win here first time out, even though he was three-time Listed winner. However, his trials have suggested he has acclimatised well and, with no weight on his back, he’s worth a chance here, even if he will be better over further in time. #3 Ugly Warrior has won five of his six starts, all at this course and distance. He continues to improve and should be able to perform strongly again from the good gate. #8 Moment Of Power is a place hope at odds, while #11 Encore Boy also deserves consideration.

RACE 10: SALISBURY HANDICAP

#1 Mr So And So capitulated after a tough run near the speed at Happy Valley last time out. Coming back to the Sha Tin 1400m may be a wise move and, with a better move, hopefully he can be ridden quieter, allowing him to finish off. #5 Sun Touch will press forward. He’s consistent and should be somewhere around the mark. #10 Relentless Me has placed in three of his last four starts since winning in June. That’s basically seen him robbed of a further win, at least in terms of a ratings rise, but he’s likely to be in the mix again. #6 Vincy has trialled well enough and can finish into the placings on debut.