Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Monday, October 1, 2018

SHA TIN SELECTIONS

(Monday, October 1, 2018)

RACE 1: #6 Romantic Chef, #9 Bumble Baby, #2 Let’s Come Back, #3 Strathallan

RACE 2: #1 Good Days, #12 Indigenous Star, #2 Play It, #8 Full Of Chances

RACE 3: #3 Cordyceps, #10 Very Sweet Orange, #6 Complacency, #4 Royal Mojito

RACE 4: #10 Care Free Prince, #12 Shining On, #7 Golden Four, #2 Flying Quest

RACE 5: #14 Aerohappiness, #12 Ultimate Glory, #6 Green Energy, #3 Tangmere

RACE 6: #10 Bigwood, #7 Patriot Hero, #6 Famous Warrior, #1 Keen Venture

RACE 7: #3 Hot King Prawn, #4 Not Listenin’tome, #1 Ivictory, #6 Doctor Geoff

RACE 8: #8 Ping Hai Star, #2 Seasons Bloom, #11 Nothingilikemore, #1 Beauty Generation

RACE 9: #10 Daring Fit, #5 Superich, #4 Raging Blitzkrieg, #1 Attention

RACE 10: #4 Little Giant, #5 Good Standing, #3 Wishful Thinker, #8 Solomon’s Bay

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RACE 1: CHENGDU HANDICAP

#6 Romantic Chef debuts here. The HK$6 million graduate of the Hong Kong International Sale (March) has looked good in his trials and shapes well for this. He should appreciate a mile, if not further, in time, as a son of Savabeel. However, there is speed in his family, with his dam a half-sister to speedy Australian filly Hips Don’t Lie. He’s drawn in the right place and he can run strongly on debut. #9 Bumble Baby ran well off a long lay-off in two starts at the back end of last season. He’s going to be somewhere in the mix. #2 Let’s Come Back has trialled well enough and can perform, while #3 Strathallan has the right gate over the straight 1000m.

RACE 2: XIAN HANDICAP

#1 Good Days may still need to shed a few points, but he should be improved for the first-up effort and he should be able to race forward in a race devoid of much speed. #12 Indigenous Star can also push towards the lead. He has no weight on his back and he can bob up here, although he’d almost certainly be better suited by a drop in grade. #2 Play It has 10-pound claimer Victor Wong aboard and will likely try to make this a staying test. He can stick on. #8 Full Of Chances is still improving and is not without claims.

RACE 3: NANJING HANDICAP

#3 Cordyceps surprised many by running a big race on debut in June before backing that up with a good win in July, defeating subsequent winner King Opie by a neck. Notably, he recorded one of the fastest last 400m sectionals over the Sha Tin 1200m last season, sitting in a top 10 list that features stakes-level sprinters like Beat The Clock, Mr Stunning, D B Pin and Seasons Bloom. He gets another swing in Class 4 and he should be hard to beat in this spot. #10 Very Sweet Orange has more promise than he’s shown so far. He’s drawn to take advantage. #6 Complacency is still inconsistent but he does have talent. It’s just a matter of him putting it all together. #4 Royal Mojito is capable on his day, especially on his current rating.

RACE 4: SHENYANG HANDICAP

#10 Care Free Prince has not won in almost 18 months, but he’s now down at a rating where he should be able to break through. Matthew Chadwick will likely roll forward from the good gate and he should get every chance. #12 Shining On is likely to track the speed and should be in a perfect position to strike at the top of the straight. He’s worth watching. #7 Golden Four is improving with every run and won’t be too far away from a win. #2 Flying Quest can flash home late.

RACE 5: TIANJIN HANDICAP

#14 Aerohappiness was odds-on first-up but he still appeared green and nowhere near the complete package. He should get a similar run here and this race looks easier than the last. #12 Ultimate Glory is a Happy Valley specialist who doesn’t get many opportunities to run at the city circuit these days as he is banned from racing under lights. His opportunity will likely come at the October day meeting at the Valley, but in the meantime, he is still a good chance at his current mark. #6 Green Energy is another who is inconsistent, but on his day he could win this. #3 Tangmere steps out for the first time. The son of Frankel still appeared an incomplete package in Australia and it will be interesting to see how he has progressed since his arrival.

RACE 6: CHONGQING HANDICAP

#10 Bigwood arrived in Hong Kong with some hype about him, given his maiden win at Gowran Park beating G3 winner Music Box. He looked every bit an acclimatising customer in his first season, but his trial last week suggests he has returned a better galloper. If so, he will be hard to beat on his current mark. #7 Patriot Hero’s first-up run was good enough to suggest he can run a bold race here from a good gate. #6 Famous Warrior steps out for Tony Cruz for the first time. He was right on the cusp of a victory last season and he deserves respect in this spot. #1 Keen Venture creates interest down in Class 3 for the first time in almost two years for his new trainer Me Tsui.

RACE 7: THE NATIONAL DAY CUP

#3 Hot King Prawn is a horse of plenty of promise. He’s long looked a horse who would be ideal for this first Group race of the season and he is going to be hard to beat with the slightest ounce of luck. #4 Not Listenin’tome is a veteran now who looks well past his best. However, he did run second in this race last year to add to his victory in 2015 and he is coming off a stint at Conghua, where he won a barrier trial by almost 10 lengths recently. #1 Ivictory steps out for just the second time against stakes company, but given that his first resulted in a win in the G1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize (1200m), he still holds a perfect record in Group races. Interestingly, he would have got into this race on the limit if he had not run in the Chairman’s Sprint Prize, but instead he carries top-weight. He’s a chance but he will improve for this run going forward. #6 Doctor Geoff needs far further than this trip, but he could add spice to the exotics at big odds.

RACE 8: THE CELEBRATION CUP

#8 Ping Hai Star’s biggest win came in the BMW Hong Kong Derby over 2000m, but it is easy to forget that he had never raced beyond a mile and never won beyond 1400m before that effort. He has shown very little in his trials to date, but that’s to be expected. Don’t be surprised to see him flying home and winning this fresh. #2 Seasons Bloom has to carry plenty of weight but he will be primed fresh and he’s a logical threat. #11 Nothingilikemore may prove to be best at 1400m. It remains to be seen whether he can take another step forward this season, but if he can, he’s right in contention. #1 Beauty Generation won this race unexpectedly last season on the limit. He now has top-weight, but he has improved over the last 12 months and he should be somewhere around the mark.

RACE 9: SHANGHAI HANDICAP

#10 Daring Fit was backed off the map at his first run for Paul O’Sullivan and probably could have won with even luck. If he can settle a little further forward in the run here, he will be hard to run down. #5 Superich won by a big margin at his first start at 1200m to end last season, although the track was yielding and it was a day when big margins were recorded naturally. Still, the margins were sound and it looked a win of a horse with more in hand. He’s the main danger. #4 Raging Blitzkrieg was finding form at the end of last season. He may be better across on the dirt but he’s worth including here. #1 Attention should be able to win quickly in this grade.

RACE 10: BEIJING HANDICAP

#4 Little Giant has plenty of talent, but he has not raced in nearly a year due to leg issues. Still, he has shown in trials this time in that he’s returned potentially better than ever and he still looks to have ratings points in hand. If he stays sound, expect to find him in Group races by the end of the season. Another horse heading in that direction is #5 Good Standing. He’s another who has had a restricted career so far due to niggling issues, with the five-year-old having been scratched from more races than he’s contested in Hong Kong. There’s no doubting his talent, though, and if he has an ounce of luck, he’ll be in the finish. #3 Wishful Thinker ran home well in the HKSAR Chief Executive’s Cup on opening day and he will be finding the line strongly once again. #8 Solomon’s Bay can run a race fresh.