Andina Del Sur possible upset-maker in Florida Oaks

Although the Gotham, the Tampa Bay Derby, and the San Felipe will command much of the racing spotlight Saturday as major Kentucky Derby preps, other stakes across the country offer as much appeal from a wagering perspective.

The Grade 3 Florida Oaks, the race before the Tampa Bay Derby, drew 12 fillies in a superb renewal, and the race preceding the Oaks, The Grade 2 Hillsborough, is the best filly and mare grass race in North America this year. I like horses in both races. Let’s take a look at those stakes, as well as the Grade 1 Triple Bend from Santa Anita.

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Florida Oaks

The three fillies that I expect will start as the favorites – Altea, Salsa Bella, and Almond Roca – all have faults. Altea is a French import who is unraced in the U.S., and former Europeans often break slowly first time in the U.S. Salsa Bella landed the outside post in a field of 12, putting her at risk of a wide trip, and Almond Roca is untested at a route.

Those considerations have me thinking an upset could be in order, and if so, 8-1 shot Andina Del Sur could be the filly to pull it off. A winner first out at Belmont last fall, she makes her third start of the winter after third-place finishes in both the Ginger Brew and Sweetest Chant at Gulfstream behind Thewayiam, the top grass filly in south Florida.

In each of those losing efforts she ran quite well under adverse conditions, first racing wide in the Ginger Brew and then having to rally behind slow splits in the Sweetest Chant. And collectively she lost those two races by only four lengths.

More speed in this field should ensure a livelier pace, and her pedigree suggests she should appreciate the added distance to go 1 1/16 miles.

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Hillsborough Stakes

A race earlier in the Hillsborough, Off Limits figures to get pounded in the wagering, dropping below her 3-1 morning-line odds to likely something closer to 8-5 or so. She is, after all, a Grade 1 winner trained by Chad Brown who has also twice run Beyer Speed Figures of 101 or higher.

But Brown also has another mare in the race in 6-1 outsider Fourstar Crook, and though she is not a Grade 1 winner, she is a hard-knocking mare in her own right who was third in the Grade 1 E. P. Taylor when closing out her 2017 campaign. She also won three of five races in 2017, one of which was a Grade 3.

Yet I doubt she will command the betting dollars of Off Limits, in part because she is a New-York bred who has raced in restricted company for much of her career. But if anyone can keep pace with Off Limits, it is probably her.

Even in defeat last year she lost to some quality fillies, such as eventual Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold in the Yaddo at Saratoga, and later to Blond Me and Kitten’s Roar in the E.P. Taylor over boggy going.

Triple Bend Stakes

Although the Triple Bend at Santa Anita drew a field of only six, it has one of my preferred betting angles – playing a much-improved former claimer. Edwards Going Left was claimed for $50,000 a little over a year ago, and he had once dipped into the maiden $30,000 ranks. He has risen to become a top-class sprinter – and yet, because of his humble beginnings, the public has not quite fallen for him yet.

He was 14-1 when second in the Grade 1 Malibu in December and then went off at odds of nearly 5-2 vs. comebacking Masochistic in the Jan. 27 Cal Cup Sprint, a race he won by six lengths. In the Cal Cup Sprint, Edwards Going Left was asked to alter his customary stalking style and apply inside pressure on early leader Masochistic. The strategy worked. Masochistic, who can be weak-hearted at times when eyeballed, gave up and Edwards Going Left just kept going, drawing away without any rival to push him and running a career-best 102 Beyer.

Now jockey Tyler Baze can ride him Saturday any way he wishes, though I suspect he will opt to revert to stalking tactics, placing Edwards Going Left behind speed horses City of Light and Captain Scotty.