Up-and-coming New Year's Eve has work cut out in Belmont Oaks

ELMONT, N.Y. – A horse based in Europe or one trained by Chad Brown has won five of the eight runnings of the Belmont Oaks Invitational since it changed names from the Garden City and moved from the fall to the summer in 2014.

With four European-based runners and three from the Brown barn in this year’s 10-horse field, it seems plausible that trend could continue in Saturday’s Grade 1, $700,000 Belmont Oaks for 3-year-old fillies at Belmont Park.

Not so fast.

New Year’s Eve, trained by Brendan Walsh, might be capable of beating the Europeans and the Brown trio in the 1 1/4-mile Belmont Oaks.

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New Year’s Eve was quite impressive when she rallied from last under Luis Saez to win the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes going 1 1/16 miles on May 6 at Churchill Downs. Prior to that, she had three good runs at Fair Grounds, including a troubled-trip third in the Allen “Black Cat” Lacombe Memorial when she continued on despite being bumped and steadied in the stretch.

“She was very green, kind of slow mentally in New Orleans,” Walsh said Thursday at Belmont Park. “It was coming together gradually, and I think it all came together on the right day at Churchill. She seems like she’s done really well since, so hopefully she can confirm her talent here Saturday.”

Walsh equipped New Year’s Eve with blinkers for the Edgewood, and while it didn’t change her running style, it did seem to help focus her more, Walsh said.

“I think she was a different filly than what she was at Louisiana,” Walsh said.

New Year’s Eve put in a very strong work here over the turf Sunday, stalking recent allowance winner Lady Rockstar before finishing on even terms through a half-mile in 46.60 seconds.

The question may be how effective New Year’s Eve will be stretching out from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/4 miles, though she is a daughter of Kitten’s Joy, a turf marathon specialist.

“On her pedigree, she should do it, and knowing her I wouldn’t think it’s going to be a problem,” said Walsh, who again will have Saez aboard from post 6.

Concert Hall, trained by Aidan O’Brien, and With The Moonlight, trained by Charlie Appleby, both have won at 1 1/4 miles. Neither appreciated the 1 1/2 miles or the softish ground at Epsom when they finished fourth and 11th in the Epsom Oaks on June 3.

Concert Hall came back to run fifth in the Group 1 Pretty Polly at The Curragh, but was placed fourth after getting interfered with along the rail in the stretch. She dropped back to last, was switched outside by Ryan Moore, and showed courage to be beaten only four lengths.

“We thought she had a big chance in the race, obviously, until that happened to her,” said O’Brien, who has won this race twice, including last year with Santa Barbara. “She still came home very well the last half a furlong.”

O’Brien sent Concert Hall here in search of firm ground, which she will most certainly get Saturday.

“She’s a very good mover, but she’d prefer good-to-firm than soft-to-good,” he said.

Concert Hall, under Moore, breaks from the outside in the 10-horse field.

With The Moonlight won Newmarket’s listed version of the Pretty Polly on May 1 before finishing last of 11 in the Epsom Oaks. Appleby believes the 1 1/2 miles of the Oaks proved to be too far for this daughter of Frankel.

“We knew it was going to be a gamble going up to the mile and a half,” Appleby said. “We were wanting to have a crack at the Oaks, so we had a go, but you could quite clearly see that she didn’t stay the trip.”

With The Moonlight has enough early speed to be prominent early under Frankie Dettori from post 4. She did get a chance to gallop over the Belmont turf on Thursday.

“She happens to jump well,” Appleby said, meaning she breaks quickly. “Hopefully, it will allow Frankie to have her right there.”

Agartha, who has yet to race beyond a mile, also has some early foot, according to her trainer, Joseph O’Brien.

“She’s got plenty of speed, she likes to go forward, and I think that works well there,” said O’Brien, who has John Velazquez to ride from post 9.

Cairo Memories, in from California for Bob Hess, seems to have good speed away from the gate as well.

The trio of Consumer Spending, Haughty, and McKulick each gives Brown a chance to win his fourth Belmont Oaks. He also won this race twice when it was called the Garden City.

Consumer Spending is 2 for 2 this year, with a two-length score in the Grade 2 Wonder Again at 1 1/8 miles here June 9.

McKulick was second to New Year’s Eve in the Edgewood, then second again in the Grade 3 Regret at Churchill. Haughty is 3 for 4 and was a handy winner of the Penn Oaks going a mile June 3.

Brown said the 1 1/4 miles of the Belmont Oaks shouldn’t be an issue for any of his three.

“It’s a question for any horse that’s never done it, but I feel pretty confident with this group,” he said.

Know Thyself and Hot Queen, both in from France, add to depth to this quality-laden field.