Analyzing Thursday's Single 6 carryover at Churchill
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLELOUISVILLE, Ky. – The post-Derby blues has a potential pick-me-up for bettors Thursday evening at Churchill Downs: a mandatory payoff in the Single 6 wager that is sweetened by a carryover of $385,132. The sequence, covering races 3 to 8 on the card, begins with the third race at 5:58 Eastern and can be played in 20-cent denominations.
Race by race, here’s a look at the principal contenders:
Race 3, $25,000 claimer, 7 furlongs.
Tiznoble (7) possesses the best overall form of nine entrants, but he is a tricky evaluation, not having raced since Feb. 2 when claimed for $32,000. He has worked four times in March and April, including twice in Kentucky, but the time away raises doubts whether he is ready to run as well as he did over winter in New York. He must be used, but singling him would seem a risky proposition.
Chief of Staff (8) isn’t as fast as Tiznoble if both run to their potential, but he might be more likely to run his "A" race Thursday. He turned in a trio of solid performances at Oaklawn over the past couple months, capped by a runner-up finish in a starter allowance April 5 in which he was a couple lengths clear of the third-place runner. Aside from a poor win mark (4 for 30), most signals from him are positive.
Catanova (5) seems among the best prospects of the others, though he enters Thursday’s race off two consecutive rear-half finishes. His chief appeal is that he rejoins the barn of trainer Mike Tomlinson, who trained him to five of his seven victories last year.
Race 4, First-level allowance, 5 furlongs (turf)
Ventry Bay (7) was flat in an April 19 comeback at Keeneland, running fourth after chasing the pace, though a wide trip did appear to compromise his chances. Perhaps now with a race behind him, he is ready to return to the turf-sprint form he displayed last year, when he won a $40,000 claimer at Saratoga before runner-up finishes at Kentucky Downs and Belmont Park.
Despite not having the grass experience of Ventry Bay, Zipp On By (5) looks well suited to the conditions. Another second-off-a-layoff runner, he set the pace before weakening to fifth at Keeneland last out when going 6 ½ furlongs on dirt. The five-eighths distance should suit him, and being by City Zip and having run second in a turf sprint at Ellis Park last year, the surface switch shouldn’t lead to regression.
What’sontheagenda (3), on the flip side, seems likely to take a step back from the 81 Beyer he ran when second at Keeneland most recently. He was able to clear early in that race with soft fractions, and against a speedy cast here, it seems improbable that he enjoys such a luxury again. He is in the mix of contenders, but not as appealing as either Ventry Bay or Zipp On By.
Race 5, maiden special weight, 6 ½ furlongs
East Moon (3) appears sharpest of these maidens, having run second in two straight, including in a race at Keeneland April 7. That day she pressed the pace and held tough to just outlast the third-place finisher, Rizzoli, who returned to win. She has returned with three-half mile breezes at Keeneland, including a near-bullet May 4 in which she went a half-mile in 47.20 seconds, second fastest of 66 that morning.
Urban Insight (8) and Glitznglamour (5) rate behind her after runner-up finishes at Keeneland against fields that seemed of a lesser quality than the group East Moon just faced.
Race 6, $8,000 claiming, 6 ½ furlongs
Although Frank the Butcher (5), Trenton Bridge (3) and Mun Up (4) are the preferred runners, they are not the most trustworthy types – typical of runner in low-level nonwinners-of-two claiming races.
Deep-pocketed bettors may wish to add Distorted Ransom (2), How’s My Bud (7), and Farmer Phil (10) to tickets.
Race 7, Second-level allowance, 1 mile
Life’s Blessings (3) likely goes favored off a fast allowance win at Santa Anita for trainer Bob Baffert, but she doesn’t have to win. Although she was sharp in her latest, it took her five allowance tries to get that first victory at that level. She must be used in Single 6 tickets, but the value is in the chance another beats her.
Awestruck (7) and Flora Dora (2) look worthwhile as pricier alternatives. The former is similarly stepping up off an entry-level allowance score, though her victory came at Keeneland, and the latter challenged in similar allowances earlier this year despite wide trips at Fair Grounds.
Race 8, maiden special weight, 1 mile (turf)
Bold Friends (11) didn’t draw particularly well, starting toward the outside, but he seems to be an improving type, and as a lightly raced 3-year-old, he may have more room to improve than some of his chief rivals. Regardless, he fits off his last race after running an even fourth at Keeneland in his seasonal bow.
Dreamology (7) and Overzealous (5) are 4-year-olds, but they too are inexperienced and may continue to develop. Comebacking Dreamology has trained swiftly this year after two decent races last year at 3, while Overzealous moves to tougher circuit after a debut third at Tampa March 23.