Analyze the Odds ($42) surges in Mike Lee Stakes

ELMONT, N.Y. - When Michael Dubb claimed Analyze the Odds for $80,000 in April, he didn’t plan on running him back a month later in a sprint stakes.

“I was looking for a two-turn Saratoga 3-year-old for the Albany,” Dubb said, referring to the 1 1/8-mile, $250,000 race for New York-bred 3-year-olds run on Aug. 24. “Number one, I thought he needed a freshening, which was the plan.”

The plans changed when trainer Jason Servis said Analyze the Odds was doing so well that it was worth running him in Monday’s $125,000 Mike Lee Stakes at Belmont Park.

Servis’ assessment turned out to be spot-on as Analyze the Odds, next to last at the top of the stretch under Junior Alvarado, came with a strong late run to pass Morning Breez and win the Mike Lee Stakes by three-quarters of a length. It was four lengths back to Retonova in third.

The win was the second on the card for Dubb and Servis with a horse they had acquired through the claim box. They won the $125,000 Mount Vernon with Feeling Bossy, whom they claimed last fall for $62,500.

“I try to shop for horses to fit spots. I was 2 for 2 today,” Dubb said. “It doesn’t always work that way, trust me.”

Dubb would later add a third stakes win on the card with Offering Plan - a horse he did not claim - who won the $125,000 Kingston Stakes.

In the Mike Lee, Analyze the Odds broke well, but gradually dropped to the back of the pack while Ultimateenticement ran an opening quarter of 22.79 seconds before yielding to Aveenu Malcainu, who took over after a half-mile in 45.67 seconds.

Meanwhile, Analyze the Odds was last at the five-sixteenths pole before swinging widest of all in the stretch.

At the three-sixteenths pole, Morning Breez bumped with Aveenu Malcainu before taking the lead from him. But Analyze the Odds came with an unabated late run to blow past Morning Breez in deep stretch for the victory.

Alvarado said assistant trainer Henry Argueta told him Analyze the Odds “was probably going to break sharp and said ‘I don’t want you to send. If you send, he’s probably going to stop. Just break and let him be comfortable.’

“That’s what I did and at the end, when I asked him to run, he was there for me,” Alvarado said.

Analyze the Odds, a son of Overanalyze, covered the seven furlongs in 1:22.58 and returned $42.

“It wasn’t our plan to run him today, but he was doing so well that Jason said ‘Let’s take a shot and see if we can get a piece,’ " Dubb said.

“I never dreamt the piece would be the big piece. But he’s really done an incredible job with the horse.”

Following Retonova in the order of finish was Sea Foam, Aveenu Malcainu, What a Catch, Presence of Mind, and Ultimateenticement.

A True Giant was a late scratch after acting up in the starting gate.