Analyze It makes highly anticipated return in Transylvania

LEXINGTON, Ky. – Chad Brown says Analyze It probably won’t run Friday in the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland if the race is forced off the turf by inclement conditions – but hardly anyone is hoping it comes to that.

Okay, okay, maybe the connections of his opposition would love to see Analyze It scratched; that is, after all, their best chance for success. Clearly, the outcome of the $150,000 Transylvania hinges primarily on whether Analyze It runs, and it’s all dependent on what track management decides in the face of dicey weather.

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If the 1 1/16-mile race does stay on turf, the others might well be competing for minor awards. Analyze It, off just two races as a 2-year-old, is one of the most exciting 3-year-old prospects in all of North America, and his return to action has been eagerly anticipated by racing fans far and wide.

Analyze It, with Jose Ortiz to ride, was assigned the outside post in a field of 12 entered in the Transylvania. Brown acknowledged the post as being “challenging,” but assuming the colt’s early speed allows him to offset the disadvantage, his typical effort should make him formidable.

“He’s a very, very good horse,” Brown said. “He’s a super-talented colt with a lot of class and a great mind. If he stays healthy, we should have a great year with him.”

Analyze It, owned by William Lawrence, earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure in winning his debut in October over the Belmont Park turf by 6 1/4 lengths, then validated that performance with a 93 Beyer in winning the Grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille Stakes at Del Mar in November by 4 1/4 lengths. The Kentucky-bred son of Point of Entry has been sent through nine workouts since early February at the Palm Meadows training center in South Florida in advance of his comeback.

The top threat to Analyze It will start on the opposite end of the starting gate. Maraud (post 1, John Velazquez) comes off a perfect-trip victory in the Grade 3 Palm Beach at Gulfstream Park in a solid effort that equated to an 89 Beyer. Trained by Todd Pletcher for Treadway Racing Stable, the son of Blame owns three wins and two thirds from five career starts.

Fringe players in this 30th running of the Transylvania include Admiralty Pier (post 5, Luis Saez), who also is making his 3-year-old debut, and Captivating Moon (post 8, Florent Geroux), most recently the runner-up in the Columbia Stakes on the Tampa Bay Derby card. If the race happens to move to the dirt, then Tigers Rule (post 2, Joel Rosario) or Tap Daddy (post 3, Julien Leparoux) might benefit most, given how well they both ran here last fall in the off-the-turf Bourbon Stakes.

The Transylvania anchors the opening-day card as the ninth of 10 races and is part of a late pick-four wager (races 7-10) with a $200,000 pool guaranteed by TVG. First post is 1:05 p.m. Eastern, with the feature set for 5:30 and the last race for 6:03. Four allowances (races 2, 5, 6, 8) are part of a terrific card.

The Transylvania, named for the downtown Lexington university founded in 1780, is being sponsored by the local power company, Kentucky Utilities, for the first time. Brown, with Night Prowler in 2015, and Pletcher (Jack Milton, 2013) each has won it once. The 2017 running was won by Big Score, with Javier Castellano riding for Tim Yakteen.