Amoss's numbers give Red Strike a boost in feature

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, Ill. – Since Red Strike is one of seven horses entered in the featured first race on Friday at Arlington, his raw chances of victory, obviously, are 1 in 7.

Since Red Strike recently won a race at a class level similar to the one at which he starts, a second-level optional $40,000 claimer, and has previous form validating that showing, a handicapper would peg him for a better than 1-in-7 chance.

And since Tom Amoss trains Red Strike, the horse has an excellent chance of winning.

Amoss possesses one of the highest strike rates of any mid- to high-volume trainer. But the degree to which his operation has been winning the last two years and the accompanying increased return on investment produced by his starters probably hasn’t been sufficiently appreciated.

In 2013, Amoss was the only North American top 30 trainer by wins to hit with at least 30 percent of his starters. After winning with 31 percent of his 2013 runners, Amoss sits at a crazily high 36 percent nearly five months into the 2014 season. Such consistency can make horses like Red Strike, a 5-2 morning-line shot, the key to a successful day’s betting.

Amoss and owner Maggi Moss claimed Red Strike on March 5 for $40,000 at Fair Grounds, and a little more than a month later, he won for that tag at Keeneland – at odds of 12-1.

For 2014, Amoss’s ROI sits at a robust $1.81, that despite the fact his major strings at Fair Grounds ($1.40) and Churchill ($1.65) have come nowhere near that number. Value on Amoss-trained starters has cropped up elsewhere, though for different reasons. At meets like Keeneland, the barn is more surgical in approach: Eleven starters at the spring meet there produced five wins and a $4.03 ROI. But at smaller venues like Delta Downs (32 percent wins. $2.05 ROI) and Indiana Downs (27-14-5-4 record, $1.91) the outfit’s strike rate has been so high that even a steady stream of short-odds winners has been profitable, or close to it.

At 21 percent, Amoss’s win rate in synthetic races like Arlington’s Friday feature is nowhere near what he achieves on dirt, but his synthetic ROI is $2.25. Red Strike starts under allowance conditions Friday, and Amoss has won with 36 percent of his allowance starters for a $2.03 ROI the last two years.

The more you look at the numbers, the more that 5-2 morning-line price feels like a bargain.