Amorita, Resolve could buck trend of winning favorites
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ARCADIA, Calif. – Long on turf, short on dirt, 3-year-old fillies are featured in the top two races Friday at Santa Anita.
An entry-level allowance turf mile, race 7, includes stakes-placed Supa Speed and Schilflied. But dominating maiden winner Amorita and change-in-strategy Resolve offer wagering value.
A maiden dirt sprint, race 8, is led by fast-working firsters Brilliantly and Maysam, trained by Bob Baffert. Their rivals include second-time starter Scusi and improving Surf Song.
Favorites are dominating this winter, winning 48 percent (61 for 127) through Monday. Everyone knows you can’t make money betting only favorites, but a $2 win bet on every favorite this meet would have produced a profit of $8.40.
If the chalk parade continues, race 7 will be won by Supa Speed (8-5 favorite) or Schilflied (5-2). They finished three-two last out in the Blue Norther Stakes at one mile on turf. It’s only a slight drop to nonwinners-other-than, but it might be enough.
That is unless Amorita reproduces her maiden romp. Richard Mandella trains Amorita, who began her career finishing last on dirt.
“I was shocked with her first race,” Mandella said. “She trained like a filly that could run, but when the dirt hit her in the face, she just panicked and ran backwards.”
Mandella switched Amorita to turf, and she improved by pressing the pace before giving way. Amorita put it all together third out stretching to one mile. She made an easy lead and won by more than four lengths.
The field includes just one other front-runner, the sprinter Magale. Amorita figures for a pressing trip outside that rival. The wild card is Resolve, who rallied from behind in her first four starts including a maiden win and a bad-trip third in the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante.
But when Resolve ran in the Blue Norther, her strategy changed. A late-runner, she sped to the lead in a fast 45.77 seconds and faded to fifth.
“She did well, hanging on late with those fractions,” trainer Leonard Powell said. “That’s not going to be her tactic Friday.”
Resolve (6-1) will take back and rally; Amorita (5-1) will press the pace. Either could upset Supa Speed and Schilflied. However, turf miles have been the most predictable races this meet. Favorites have won 16 of 28.
Race 8 is the maiden sprint led by Baffert trainees Brilliantly (7-5) and Maysam (9-5).
“They’re both really nice fillies, but their posts aren’t great,” Baffert said. “I think the race will benefit them. Would I be shocked if they won? No.”
Brilliantly drew post 2, Maysam post 1 in the 6 1/2-furlong race. Both have worked fast. Brilliantly is by Uncle Mo, whose progeny have won at a 14 percent clip first out. Maysam is by Game Winner, whose debut progeny have won 4 percent (2 for 48).
Scusi (10-1) adds blinkers off a fourth-place debut. Surf Song (6-1) improved to third in the same race. Friday is her third start for Powell, who said Surf Song “has improved again in her training. I think we should get a nice setup.”
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