American Pharoah, Dortmund give Baffert potent one-two punch in Derby

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – American Pharoah floats like a butterfly. Dortmund stings like a bee. They might be the greatest one-two punch in this city since Muhammad Ali.

At least that’s the way bettors are expected to back them in the 141st Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs. American Pharoah will be the favorite, Dortmund the clear-cut second choice. They are trained by Bob Baffert, who seems likely to become the first trainer since Bobby Frankel in 2003 to send out the first two choices in a Derby and will seek to become the first trainer since Ben Jones in 1948 to run one-two.

But though the Baffert pair has drawn the majority of the focus in the lead-up to this Derby, this field appears deeper than the one dominated by Citation and Coaltown in 1948. The quality at the top makes this one of the best Derby fields ever.

That’s not idle hyperbole. Eight of the 19 horses in this Derby have recorded Beyer Speed Figures of 100 or better, four of them on multiple occasions. Six of the horses got a Beyer figure of 100 or better in their most-recent start. American Pharoah has won 4 times in 5 starts, and was adjudged the champion 2-year-old male of 2014. Dortmund has won all six of his starts. Primary rivals like Carpe Diem (4 for 5) and Materiality (3 for 3), both trained by Todd Pletcher, could be the next two choices, and if that happens, the first four betting choices would enter the race a combined 17 for 19.

Mubtaahij invades from the Middle East, seeking to give world-class trainer Michael de Kock perhaps the greatest prize of his stellar career. Frosted and Upstart, two of the best 2-year-olds of last year, have continued to race strongly at age 3 and have performances that put them right there. Firing Line gave Dortmund a scare in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, then crushed his rivals in the Sunland Derby.

In addition to Carpe Diem and Materiality, Pletcher entered Stanford and Itsaknockout. But on Thursday afternoon, Pletcher informed the Churchill Downs stewards that Stanford will be scratched. That allows Frammento to get in from the also-eligible list. Pletcher said Stanford will await the Preakness or the Peter Pan Stakes.

Stanford had post 11. All horses outside of him move in one slot. Frammento gets post 20 and will wear No. 21.

On Friday, El Kabeir was scratched from the Derby, leaving a field of 19. He had post 7. The six horses drawn inside him will move out a slot, so the inside gate now will be left open.

Pletcher still has more horses than anyone in the race, with three. Itsaknockout is bound to be a hunch play, not only because this race takes place in the hometown of Ali but because the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight is Saturday night in Las Vegas.

Of the rest, all double-digit prices, the best include Danzig Moon, who has made a strong appearance in his training all week, and Bolo, who was third to Dortmund in the Santa Anita Derby. Tencendur will be a big number even though he is one of the six in the field who got a Beyer figure of at least 100 last time out. The plucky International Star has won three straight races.

Ocho Ocho Ocho will be part of the early pace, Keen Ice and Far Right will hope a pace collapse sets up their late runs, while War Story and Mr. Z will try to improve significantly over their recent races.

The pace figures to be fast in the 1 1/4-mile race but not scalding, in large part because the points system now used by Churchill Downs to determine the Derby field is weighted toward two-turn, 3-year-old performances. That has impacted the chances of a sprint specialist getting in, something that was more apt to happen under the old system using graded stakes earnings.

No one understands that change better than Ahmed Zayat, the owner of American Pharoah – as well as Mr. Z – whose Bodemeister might have been a Derby winner in 2012 had he not been hounded early by the sprinter Trinniberg. Bodemeister finished second, one of three times Zayat has finished second in the Derby, including with American Pharoah’s sire, Pioneerof the Nile, in 2009.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

Baffert is seeking his fourth Derby win and his first one since 2002, “so long ago, I forgot” what it feels like, he joked the other morning.

In addition to his Derby drought since then, Baffert had a more serious personal issue just three years ago when he had a heart attack in Dubai.

“I don’t think anybody knows the stress and anxiety these guys are under,” said Baffert’s wife, Jill. “Now, it’s times two. The anxiety is off the charts with these horses.”

Bob Baffert certainly isn’t showing any outward concern. He’s been jovial all week, and his wife said he has “been better at regulating the part of his life where he realizes, ‘It’s out of my hands.’ ”

“This is what we work for, to be competitive at this level,” Bob Baffert said. “I’m very fortunate to have this opportunity. I just want to sit back and enjoy it. Experience in this game helps. The first time I came here, with Cavonnier, I was in awe.”

That first Derby came in 1996. Baffert then won the Derby three times in the next six runnings. Twelve Derbies have been run since he last won, but he’s never brought a tag team like this to the ring.

“But a lot can happen. You don’t take anything for granted. I saw the Pete Carroll deal,” Baffert said, referring to the coach of the Seattle Seahawks, whose team lost the Super Bowl on a goal-line interception.

American Pharoah will have to overcome post 18, though both Baffert and jockey Victor Espinoza were happy to draw out there, rather than inside.

American Pharoah has won both of his starts this year in a romp. He did so with a plate covering part of the sole of his left front foot. He will continue to be shod that way Saturday.

Espinoza, who will be seeking his third Derby win overall and his second straight after winning last year with California Chrome, insists that he’s never let American Pharoah go all out.

“I’ve never let him run,” Espinoza said. “I think Saturday seems like the right time to let him run.”

There were 22 entered in the Derby on Wednesday, but the starting field is capped at 20. Frammento and Tale of Verve were placed on the also-eligible list, in that order. Frammento got in when Stanford scratched Thursday. Scratch time for the Derby was Friday at 9 a.m. Since the scratch for El Kabeir was not announced until after that deadline, Tale of Verve did not get in.

The Derby is the 11th race on a 13-race card that begins at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Post time for the Derby is 6:34 p.m. The race will be seen on NBC during a three-hour telecast beginning at 4 p.m. From noon to 4, Derby Day coverage will be on NBCSN.