Ambiguity abounds on Thursday Del Mar card
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DEL MAR, Calif. – Sometimes, handicapping is black and white. Other times, it is Thursday at Del Mar.
A card filled with ambiguity requires weekday horseplayers to address the uncertainty, and attempt to quantify the unquantifiable. Some situations are less complicated than others.
For example, race 1 starter Pink Ace: A shipper from the Midwest, Pink Ace shortens from a route to a sprint for her first start since April and first for trainer Phil D’Amato. Notwithstanding new distance, surface, and trainer, Pink Ace enters the starter-allowance sprint as the one to beat.
“She’s done everything right,” D’Amato said. “We’ve been waiting for a race for her. She’s shown she can be effective going short and long. The short [race] came up first in the starter category, so that’s where we went.”
Staton Flurry claimed Pink Ace for $40,000 from her debut victory at Oaklawn Park. In her first start for her new owner, the filly earned $28,200 finishing second in a route stakes at Oaklawn. Pink Ace’s rivals Thursday include late-runner Camp Bashors Candy and front-runner House of Magic; both won maiden-claiming races last out.
Another non-claiming race Thursday is race 4, a turf sprint for California-bred maiden 2-year-olds. To wager on Donnie the Chiro requires one to forgive his eighth-place debut, while backing Special Club requires one recognize his stable usually races maidens into shape rather than fire first out.
Donnie the Chiro (“chiropractor”) is trained by Peter Miller, who acknowledged the gelding’s head-scratching dirt debut. The 3.40-1 second choice in a 10-runner field, Donne the Chiro broke slowly, ran flat, and finished eighth.
“I thought he’d run better,” Miller said. “That’s why we’re thinking maybe turf. We think he’s going to need more distance eventually.”
Miller believes Donnie the Chiro’s closing style will be more effective on turf. Although the gelding is not bred for turf, the trainer’s second-start 2-year-old maidens frequently improve.
Miller-trained second-start maiden 2-year-olds (all categories) won 23 of 81 starts (28 percent) the past five years, according to DRF Formulator. As for first-time starter Special Club, his trainer, Craig Lewis, rarely wins first out, preferring to race them into condition. Lewis was asked about expectations for the son of Clubhouse Ride.
“Seeing as how he’s never run and never touched grass, it’s all a guess,” Lewis said. “But he acts like he can run.”
Race 7 on Thursday is an allowance/optional $20,000 claiming sprint for California-bred fillies and mares. Stay and Scam enters as the top contender based on her winning debut on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis and runner-up finish on turf in her California debut two months ago.
The handicapping quandary is which figure to lean on – her 56 Beyer Speed Figure dirt debut, or her second-start 71 Beyer on turf. Stay and Scam will be forwardly placed in the dirt sprint. Everlys Girl is a contender from midpack, and route-to-sprint Danzing Cat adds blinkers. She is trained by Miller, whose second starter, She’s Bulletproof, might need a comeback. It’s her first start of the year.
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