All-star cast makes for especially compelling Kentucky Derby

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Quantifying a race as the “best ever” or “best in years” is largely a matter of subjective opinion, but there are cold, hard facts that make the 144th Kentucky Derby on Saturday here at Churchill Downs deserving of its prerace huzzahs.

Never before has a Derby featured two Breeders’ Cup winners, something that will happen when Eclipse Award recipient Good Magic, who took the Juvenile last fall, and Mendelssohn, the Juvenile Turf winner, line up.

The trainers of the 20 runners in the main body of the 1 1/4-mile race have combined for 10 Derby wins and 23 Eclipse Awards as outstanding trainer, both Derby records. And if Blended Citizen draws in from the also-eligible list, add two Derby wins to that tally, courtesy of Doug O’Neill.

Five of the trainers – Steve Asmussen, Bob Baffert, Jerry Hollendorfer, D. Wayne Lukas, and Bill Mott – already are in the Hall of Fame. And that doesn’t even include Aidan O’Brien, the Irish wunderkind who last year set a single-season record with 28 Grade 1 or Group 1 stakes victories. He’s pretty good, too.

The top contenders in this Derby have held their form all spring and have recorded fast speed figures, including the favorite, Justify, who is one of just 18 horses since the Beyer Speed Figures were first published to have commenced their career with a fig of more than 100 in each of their first three starts.

Get a complete list of DRF resources and content related to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 5

Magnum Moon, like Justify, enters the race unbeaten, and both those colts bring the added intrigue of having legitimate shots to end a streak of Derby futility for runners unstarted at age 2 that dates to 1882. The victories by Justify in the Santa Anita Derby and Magnum Moon in the Arkansas Derby produced career-best Beyers, which also can be said for the winners of the Florida Derby (Audible), Louisiana Derby (Noble Indy), and Wood Memorial (Vino Rosso).

If this isn’t as good as it gets, it’s right up there.

“It’s pretty top-heavy,” said Baffert, who sends out Justify and a longshot, Solomini. “All the final prep races I thought were pretty good.”

Justify has been brilliant so far, but he is tied with Hofburg for the least experience in the race with a mere three starts each. Raw talent will have to compensate if he is to prevail.

“He’s a beautiful mover. All the ingredients are there. Now all you need is racing luck,” Baffert said. “He has to break well. You cannot make a mistake. Dreams can be shattered in 100 yards.”

Good Magic won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his third start at age 2, and the Derby will be the third start of his form cycle this year. He has trained like he’s sitting on a big race, and he looks physically stronger than he did prior to his 2018 debut in the Fountain of Youth, let alone last fall.

“We set up a plan, hoped the horse would cooperate, and he has,” said trainer Chad Brown, a two-time Eclipse Award winner seeking his first Derby victory. “He looks to really be in a zone right now.”

Mendelssohn was a romping winner of the United Arab Emirates Derby in his dirt debut and will try to give O’Brien and the great British jockey Ryan Moore their first victory in one of the few international races to have eluded them. Mendelssohn had his first morning on the track Thursday after clearing quarantine Wednesday, and he spent it first jogging and then galloping in the company of three other O’Brien trainees here for races this weekend while getting used to his new surroundings.

:: Visit DRF's Kentucky Derby one-stop shop for all your handicapping needs!

Todd Pletcher, a two-time Derby winner trying to become the first trainer in 20 years to win consecutive Derbies, sends out a potent foursome of Audible, Magnum Moon, Noble Indy, and Vino Rosso, all winners of major preps in their last starts.

“We’ve had a great spring,” said Pletcher, who is tied with Lukas for the most Derby starters with 48. “The horses are doing well. I feel good. But I appreciate how difficult it is to win.”

Noble Indy figures to be vying for the early lead, and others who should be forwardly placed include Promises Fulfilled – perhaps the most likely early leader – as well as Flameaway and Justify.

“I certainly think it’ll be an honest pace,” Pletcher said.

Bolt d’Oro was a sharp second behind Justify in the Santa Anita Derby. He could make Mick Ruis, his owner and trainer, a Derby winner in his first try.

“This is the best we’ve had him,” Ruis said.

Hofburg is trying to give Mott his first Derby winner, and he has had an eye-catching week of training that underscores why a conservative trainer like Mott is taking on the Derby with a horse with so few starts.

Combatant, Free Drop Billy, Instilled Regard, Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack, and Solomini will try to make late impacts.

Solomini being a 30-1 shot on the lines of both Mike Battaglia of Churchill Downs and Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, “shows you how deep this field is,” Baffert said. “There are some really good horses.”

Those backing Enticed hope a return to Churchill Downs, where he won the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall, gives him an advantage.

Wins by Bravazo or Firenze Fire would be shocking based on their most recent form.

If a full field of 20 starts, the gross purse of the Derby will be $2,192,000, with $1,432,000 – and a big blanket of roses – going to the winner.

Since a maximum of 20 horses can run but 21 were entered Tuesday, Blended Citizen – as the horse with the fewest points earned in Derby prep races – was placed on the also-eligible list. He only can get in if one of the 20 in the main body of the race is withdrawn by scratch time for Derby Day, which is 9 a.m. Friday. After that, he’s out of luck.

The Derby goes as race 12 on a marathon 14-race card whose first post is 10:30 a.m. Eastern and whose last race is scheduled for 8:20 p.m., nearly 10 hours later. Gates open at Churchill Downs at 8 a.m.

Post time for the Derby is listed as 6:46 p.m., but it’s always wise to take the over. The Derby will be televised by NBC on a program beginning at 2:30 p.m., and there is live coverage from noon to 2:30 on NBCSN. In addition, the Horse Racing Radio Network will have the Derby live in a two-hour broadcast beginning at 5 p.m.

Befitting a card at the track that will host the Breeders’ Cup in six months, the races preceding the Derby include several outstanding stakes races, with two Grade 1 events, the Humana Distaff (race 6) for older female sprinters and the Old Forester Turf Classic (race 11) for older grass runners that features the runner-up in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Turf, Beach Patrol. There are four other graded stakes, making a total of seven graded stakes on the card.

After absolutely delightful weather to start the week, the forecast is not as encouraging for the weekend. According to The Weather Channel, which predicted showers and thunderstorms on Friday, there is a 40 percent chance of rain on Derby Day, with showers in the afternoon and a high of 76 degrees.

POST	HORSE		TRACK ODDS	WATCHMAKER ODDS	BEST BEYER	JAY PRIVMAN AND MIKE WATCHMAKER COMMENTS
	SIRE	- designates Keeneland sales graduate
1	Firenze Fire		50-1	50-1	90	JP: Think his form is in decline, and think Derby distance is well beyond his comfort zone. That's a bad combo.
	by Poseidon's Warrior					MW: Feels like a long time ago when he beat Good Magic in the Champagne. Yes, he's off form, distance-challenged.
	Owner: Mr. Amore Stable; Trainer: Jason Servis; Jockey: Paco Lopez
2	Free Drop Billy		30-1	30-1	90	JP: Was deservedly moved up to third via DQ in Blue Grass, but has seemed to be stuck at same level this spring.
	by Union Rags					MW: One of a conspicuous group here who have shown no progress at a time when they're supposed to progress.
	Owner: Albaugh Family Stables; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: Robby Albarado
3	Promises Fulfilled		30-1	50-1	96	JP: Figures to try and make the early running, but last race was ugly and this is a far deeper field. Hard to endorse.
	by Shackleford					MW: Walked on the early lead when he upset the Fountain of Youth. Won't get a free pass like that in the Derby.
	Owner: Robert Baron; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: Corey Lanerie
4	Flameaway		30-1	30-1	93	JP: Like how he fires every time, no matter surface. His consistency makes him a use in bottom of gimmicks for me.
	by Scat Daddy					MW: He is certainly consistent, but consistency at the low 90s Beyer level won't get much if the best here show up.
	Owner: John Oxley; Trainer: Mark Casse; Jockey: Jose Lezcano
5	Audible		8-1	10-1	99	JP: Got a terrific setup in Fla. Derby, showed good progress in preps at GP. Castellano took him over Bolt d'Oro.
	by Into Mischief					MW: I liked his Fla. Derby. It showed he can win from anywhere. I have no issues with him. I just like others more.
	Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, Starlight Racing, & Heads of Plains Partners; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano
6	Good Magic		12-1	8-1	100	JP: Looks to me like he's thriving. Blue Grass win was solid, trained very well since. Sitting on his best race this year.
	by Curlin					MW: He must run better than he did beating softer company in Blue Grass or he will likely come up empty-handed.
	Owner: e Five Thoroughbreds & Stonestreet Stables; Trainer: Chad Brown; Jockey: Jose Ortiz
7	Justify		3-1	7-2	107	JP: Hype is deserved in terms of talent. The big question is if he encounters trouble, inexperience will betray him.
	by Scat Daddy					MW: His positional speed means he should avoid trouble, and puts him in line for a sweet trip. Favorite looks tough.
	Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, Starlight Racing, & Head of Plains Partners; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Mike Smith
8	Lone Sailor		50-1	50-1	95	JP: Ran his best race yet in Louisiana Derby, but I believe the form of FG preps this year is below other regionals.
	by Majestic Warrior					MW: Big try last time combined with blazing work on 4/19 confirms his improvement. I won't dismiss this longshot.
	Owner: G M B Racing; Trainer: Tom Amoss; Jockey: James Graham
9	Hofburg		20-1	20-1	94	JP: Liked maturity he showed in Fla. Derby for one with such little experience. Love how he's trained, live at a price.
	by Tapit					MW: I liked him in the Florida Derby, and I thought he ran very well under the circumstances. He's not out of this.
	Owner: Juddmonte Farms; Trainer: Bill Mott; Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
10	My Boy Jack		30-1	30-1	94	JP: Most experienced horse in the field ships everywhere and runs well, but think he's a cut below the best here.
	by Creative Cause					MW: He loves the game, and for that I tip my cap. But his best showings were either bias-aided or pace-assisted.
	Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables & Monomoy Stables; Trainer: Keith Desormeaux; Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
11	Bolt d'Oro		8-1	10-1	103	JP: Was in unenviable chasing position in SA Derby behind Justify. Two good preps this spring, likely to be value.
	by Medaglia d'Oro					MW: Has been one of the best and fastest members of his generation from the get-go. Ignore him at your own risk.
	Owner: Ruis Racing; Trainer: Mick Ruis; Jockey: Victor Espinoza
12	Enticed		30-1	30-1	95	JP: Took solid bump from Vino Rosso, couldn't match strides late in Wood, but won CD's biggest 2yo race last fall.
	by Medaglia d'Oro					MW: This horse can run, but I still have some doubts he's at his best going long at this point in his young career.
	Owner: Godolphin Racing; Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin; Jockey: Junior Alvarado
13	Bravazo		50-1	50-1	93	JP: Was trying to lug out entire way in the Louisiana Derby. Hard to like off such a dreadful final prep six weeks ago.
	by Awesome Again					MW: He and Promises Fulfilled are in a contest for worst last-out performance. He's not winning that race, either.
	Owner: Calumet Farm; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas; Jockey: Luis Contreras
14	Mendelssohn		5-1	6-1	106	JP: World-class trainer and jockey and a horse who romped in his only dirt start make for a potent team. Dangerous.
	by Scat Daddy					MW: Would be no surprise, but the setup for this is very different and less favorable than it was in his UAE Derby.
	Owner: Derrick Smith, Mrs. John Magnier, & Michael Tabor; Trainer: Aidan O'Brien; Jockey: Ryan Moore
15	Instilled Regard		50-1	50-1	92	JP: Santa Anita Derby pace didn't help him, but not sure he's progressed since Los Alamitos Futurity in December.
	by Arch					MW: His Beyers confirm that. He earned a 92 at Los Al, but a 92, 91, and a 90 since then suggest he's gone nowhere.
	Owner: OXO Equine; Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer; Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
16	Magnum Moon		6-1	6-1	98	JP: Not crazy about the way he drifted through lane in last two, but crazy about his talent. One of the top contenders.
	by Malibu Moon					MW: He's still green, which makes what he's done all the more impressive. Imagine him when he figures it all out.
	Owner: Lawana & Robert Low; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Luis Saez
17	Solomini		30-1	30-1	93	JP: Strategy for him will be to drop back, hope for hot pace, make one run. Maybe that gets him bottom of gimmicks.
	by Curlin					MW: With recent Beyers of 92, 92, 93, and 93, several others would have to flop for him to get even a small piece.
	Owner: Zayat Stables, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, & Derrick Smith; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Flavien Prat
18	Vino Rosso		12-1	12-1	98	JP: Overcame slow start, wide trip to win Wood; thought race shape helped him. Extra points Johnny V. chose him.
	by Curlin					MW: Didn't run a step in Tampa two starts back, but if his light truly clicked on in the Wood, then he can get involved.
	Owner: Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez
19	Noble Indy		30-1	20-1	95	JP: Improved quite a bit last time out with blinkers; was close to strong pace, battled back courageously to win.
	by Take Charge Indy					MW: Bottom line is, he was hard-pressed to win a prep that wasn't considered strong over lesser regarded rivals.
	Owner: WinStar Farm & Repole Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Florent Geroux
20	Combatant		50-1	30-1	94	JP: Was compromised by slow pace, wide trip in Ark. Derby, but just doesn't finish off his races as one might hope.
	by Scat Daddy					MW: I take that as an indication that, at least at this point in time, he wants to go a shorter distance, not longer.
	Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds & Willis Horton; Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Also Eligible:
21	Blended Citizen		50-1	50-1	88	JP: Didn't have cleanest of trips in Blue Grass, has improved with blinkers, but must move up a lot to make impact.
	by Proud Citizen					MW: Had trouble at Kee, yet was beaten less than five lengths. Another reason to question strength of Blue Grass.
	Owner: Greg Hall and SAYJAY Racing; Trainer: Doug O'Neill; Jockey: Kyle Frey