All eyes on Conquest Tsunami in San Simeon Stakes

ARCADIA, Calif. – Some day in a hillside turf sprint at Santa Anita a more likely winner may appear than Conquest Tsunami, the favorite in Sunday’s Grade 3 San Simeon Stakes.

Seven entered the $100,000 race at 6 1/2 furlongs on turf, and barring the unforeseen the race-4 San Simeon will be won by one of the most lopsided favorites on the card.

Conquest Tsunami, a Peter Miller-trained 7-year-old with an advantage on nearly every rational handicapping factor, will gun for his 10th victory when he starts favored in the San Simeon over a hillside course on which he has won 3 of 5.

Rivals include stablemate Arms Runner, 3 for 4 on the hill; La Sardane, a front-running route mare shortening in distance; Law Abidin Citizen, a consistent allowance gelding; Cistron, a potential pace factor; and first-level allowance winners Mesut and Air Vice Marshall.

None enter with as many attributes as Conquest Tsunami, the only graded winner and hence the class of the field. He routinely earns triple-digit Beyers, therefore is the fastest. Conquest Tsunami also is the controlling speed, and thus benefits from a clear pace advantage.

As for his connections, Miller has won more hillside turf sprints (73) at Santa Anita the past six years than any trainer in California. Miller and jockey Drayden Van Dyke quietly have become a force. Since the start of 2018, they have teamed to win 23 of 68.

Conquest Tsunami enters without a knock. Even his inside post, often mistakenly considered a liability on the hill, wins its fair share. Prior to this month’s interruption of racing, the inside post accounted for six wins from the last 14 turf sprints into Friday.

Bettors unwilling to back Conquest Tsunami at low odds may shop for value in the exacta. Good luck with that. As invincible as Conquest Tsunami appears, the opposite applies in the two hole. The runner-up slot is wide open.

KEY CONTENDERS

Conquest Tsunami, by Stormy Atlantic
Last 3 Beyers: 101-97-100

◗ He runs best when he is loose on the lead. That is the likely scenario unless pace rival Cistron attempts to engage. Cistron tried that tactic against Conquest Tsunami three back, and cracked.

◗ Last out, Conquest Tsunami wired a restricted stakes race. He won by more than four lengths in 1:11.02, the fastest hillside sprint of the meet.

Arms Runner, by Overdriven
Last 3 Beyers: 92-94-78

◗ Though possibly outclassed, Arms Runner is a course specialist with an off-the-pace style that complements front-running stablemate Conquest Tsunami. Martin Pedroza rides Arms Runner.

La Sardane, by Kingsalsa
Last 3 Beyers: 79-84-83

◗ She is a potential knockout, shortening from a route to a sprint after losing her punch in recent races at longer distances. Joel Rosario rides for trainer Neil Drysdale.

Law Abidin Citizen, by Twirling Candy
Last 3 Beyers: 87-95-100

◗ He finished fifth in both his starts this winter, but his 2018 hillside races include two allowance wins. He should be forwardly placed. Tiago Pereira rides for trainer Mark Glatt.