Adhamo looks most promising of Brown's pair in Arlington Million

The Arlington Million, among the world’s iconic horse races, is touring America. Arlington Park in 2021, Churchill Downs in 2022, and now Colonial Downs. The Million is looking for a permanent home and on Saturday is looking for a favorite.

Back to its traditional 1 1/4 miles after being run over 1 1/8 miles last summer, the Million drew 11 entrants, none close to standing out. Atone is the morning-line favorite at 7-2, but this morning line is even more flawed than the Million participants.

Start with the two entrants, Adhamo and Rockemperor, trained by Chad Brown, who won three straight Millions between 2017 and 2019. Rockemperor is listed at 5-1 and Adhamo at 10-1, but the latter, under Flavien Prat, will be a shorter price than the former and nowhere near 10-1. Rockemperor has a recency edge, but his most recent start, a ninth-place finish in the Manhattan, where he was nearly 20-1, isn’t going to get the blood boiling. Rockemperor won the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic way back in 2021 while racing over 1 1/2 miles, but Adhamo is the better Brown hope.

Adhamo was only a listed stakes horse during the French portion of his career but blossomed for Brown in 2022. After a good second in the Manhattan behind stablemate Tribhuvan, who made an easy lead, Adhamo got his Grade 1 with a facile victory over 1 3/8 miles in the United Nations at Monmouth Park. But Adhamo was nowhere near his best in two subsequent starts and on Saturday races for the first time since October. Video of recent workouts suggests a horse coming into the race the right way, Brown is excellent with long layoffs, and Adhamo’s ideal trip is nine to 10 furlongs.

Catnip is listed at an implausible 8-1, despite having just finished a good second at 6-5 in the United Nations on July 22, where he had the lead in midstretch before being run down by Therapist. Cutting back from 11 to 10 furlongs is a plus, and Catnip had a tricky trip in the U.N., where he raced closest to breakneck leader So High. His move might not have been ideally timed, and 4-year-old Catnip remains a horse on the rise who can get a good trip behind two main pace players.

“Hopefully, he gets that stalking trip with a target right to the wire,” trainer Michael Stidmam said.

Atone and Strong Quality are going to the lead, perhaps at the expense of one another. Atone never has raced beyond 1 1/8 miles but did win the Pegasus World Cup Turf over that distance this past winter. Atone surprisingly came from off the pace that day but is more naturally a front-runner and has noted speed rider Kendrick Carmouche named. Atone regressed in two post-Pegasus starts but has been freshened by trainer Mike Maker while maintaining a strong, steady dirt workout pattern.

Strong Quality was scratched from the Bowling Green last weekend in favor of the Million. Switched from dirt to turf three starts ago, Strong Quality won two allowance races before setting a strong pace and holding fifth in the Manhattan. He and jockey Javier Castellano are favorably drawn outside Atone.

“We’re going to be forwardly placed, but I’ll leave that to Javier,” trainer Mark Casse said. “The horse is doing very good and we’re going for the gusto. He has a big pedigree, and a Grade 1 would boost his résumé.”

Santin won the 2022 Million over his best trip, nine furlongs, and on his favorite turf course at Churchill Downs. In six subsequent starts, Santin has failed to approach his Million form, though his last two races came on dirt under challenging circumstances.

“The first one, there was a lot of bumping, and he caught a sloppy track last time,” trainer Brendan Walsh said.

Set Piece was fourth in the 2022 Million racing at a nine-furlong trip beyond his best, and it’s hard to see him being effective at 1 1/4 miles, while Never Explain – too short on the line at 6-1 – runs back just two weeks after the Bowling Green. Strong Tide, Master Piece, and Win for the Money complete the field. The Million is carded as race 9, post time 6:40 p.m. Eastern, on what’s forecast to be a hot, sunny day at Colonial – new site of Arlington’s Million.

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