Adare Manor favored to add Grade 2 Santa Maria to her resume
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ARCADIA, Calif. – Whomever wins the Santa Maria Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita – Adare Manor is favored – will score her first victory at the Grade 2 level. It will be a nice attribute for a future broodmare, and indicative of the lack of depth in the female dirt division here.
None of the six fillies and mares in the watered-down Santa Maria have progressed beyond Grade 3 winner. The race lightened due to the non-entry of top nominees. Grade 1 winner Fun to Dream and Grade 2 winner Midnight Memories skipped the race, and Grade 2 winner Desert Dawn has shipped to Churchill Downs for the Grade 1 La Troienne on May 5.
Adare Manor and Big Switch, one-two last out in a relatively fast allowance race, will attract the most support in the 1 1/16-mile Santa Maria. Kirstenbosch, Bellamore, and Smoothlikebuttah will rally late. Mongolian Panther may provide token pace pressure.
Adare Manor and Kirstenbosch are the field’s only Grade 3 winners; Big Switch is a California-bred stakes winner.
To win the Santa Maria requires catching the likely pacesetter Adare Manor.
Juan Hernandez rides Adare Manor for trainer Bob Baffert, and if she repeats her front-running allowance win March 31, she should be gone. Adare Manor has won 3 of 9, including the Grade 3 Las Virgenes over three rivals in winter 2022.
Big Switch ran the race of her career last out, missing by a head while more than five lengths clear of third.
“She ran a big number the other day,” trainer John Sadler said. “Hopefully, we can make up the difference.”
Big Switch earned a 92 Beyer last out under Joe Bravo, who rides her Saturday.
Bred in California by owner George Krikorian, Big Switch won the Golden State Juvenile Fillies in 2021 and the Melair Stakes in 2022. Big Switch, by Mr. Big, is expected to return to the California-bred ranks for the $100,000 Fran’s Valentine Stakes on May 28.
Sadler also trains Kirstenbosch, who won the Grade 3 La Canada Stakes in January for owner-breeder Keith Abrahams. Sadler said Kirstenbosch “is a hard tryer.”
“For her, it’s more about how the setup is,” he said.
Kirstenbosch is a late-runner reliant on a legitimate pace. Kazushi Kimura rides Kirstenbosch, who outran expectations during the winter portion of the Santa Anita meet by finishing third in the Grade 1 La Brea, winning the La Canada, and finishing third in the Grade 3 Monrovia.
The Santa Maria “is good spot for both of the them,” Sadler said, referring to Big Switch and Kirstenbosch. “Both of them look like they’re 3-1, 3 1/2-1.”
Big Switch drew post 3, directly outside Adare Manor, and could get a comfortable trip just off the speed. If she is positioned third, it probably would be due to Mongolian Panther producing speed and hounding Adare Manor.
But ultimately, the Santa Maria outcome depends on Adare Manor. If she makes the lead and gets comfortable, she should wire the field.
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