Absence of local star creates opportunity in Rodeo Drive

ARCADIA, Calif. – With the absence of the top female turf horse in California and a lack of true Grade 1 performers, the Rodeo Drive Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday is a Grade 1 in name only.

Vasilika would have been favored to win her second Rodeo Drive on Saturday, but Santa Anita has barred trainer and co-owner Jerry Hollendorfer. Vasilika, the top female turf runner in California, will travel to Kentucky for her next start.

In a figurative sense then, the Rodeo Drive is restricted beyond gender, and the absence of Vasilika creates opportunity for six less-accomplished fillies and mares. A Win and You’re In for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, the Rodeo Drive is led by Grade 2 winners Beau Recall and Paved, and Grade 3 winner Elysea’s World.

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Richard Baltas, who trains Elysea’s World, offered a refreshingly candid assessment of his mare and the Rodeo Drive: “She’s not a Grade 1 horse, but this is not a Grade 1 race.”

Vasilika will ship to Keeneland for the Grade 1 First Lady on Oct. 5, while Kentucky-based Beau Recall reversed direction. Beau Recall arrived Wednesday at Santa Anita, and is likely to start favored in the Rodeo Drive.

The three other entrants are listed stakes winner Siberian Iris, and pace-pressers who are eligible to the second allowance condition – Mirth and Excellent Sunset.

It would be unfortunate for Beau Recall that if she wins the Rodeo Drive her first Grade 1 would include the “no Vasilika” asterisk. After all, Beau Recall defeated Vasilika two months ago in winning the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon at Del Mar.

That race was 1 1/16 miles, ideal for Beau Recall. Her last six starts since moving to trainer Brad Cox have come at a mile or 1 1/16 miles, with four wins including two Grade 2’s, and two seconds, including in a Grade 1.

However, the 1 1/4-mile distance of the Rodeo Drive is a challenge. Beau Recall has raced three times at the distance, finishing off the board in all three including in the Rodeo Drive one year ago. She may be vulnerable at 1 1/4 miles.

If the distance is too far for Beau Recall, the race is ripe for 2018 Rodeo Drive runner-up Paved. Michael McCarthy trains the 4-year-old, who is making her third start back from a layoff. Paved ran twice this summer at Del Mar, a course on which she is ineffective.

“She trains well down there, [but] just kind of shows up and goes through the motions,” McCarthy said.

For Paved, Santa Anita is preferred.

“This seems to be her type of turf course,” McCarthy said. “She ran super in the same race last year.”

Paved finished a half-length behind Vasilika last year, misfired with trouble on a wet Churchill Downs course in the BC Filly and Mare Turf, and was a tired filly when she made her ninth start of the year finishing fifth in the Grade 1 American Oaks.

Paved was given 90 days at the farm, resumed training in spring, and is building up to a top effort Saturday. “Third start off a layoff, getting back on a turf course she likes, we’re hoping for a big performance this weekend and see where that leads us,” McCarthy said.

Elysea’s World should improve at the Rodeo Drive distance. “She wants to go a mile and a quarter, a mile and three-eighths,” Baltas said. “She doesn’t want to go any shorter than that.”

Excellent Sunset has an upset chance if she avoids a pace duel with Mirth. Siberian Iris won a minor stakes last out at 1 3/8 miles.