2024 Kentucky Derby: Forever Young will be needing a different kind of clean trip

When looking beyond the obvious two horses – Fierceness and Sierra Leone – as potential winners of the Kentucky Derby, the Japanese-based Forever Young is top of mind among a lot of handicappers.

This colt’s undefeated record (5 for 5) and the ever-growing success of Japanese horses on the international stage could combine to make Forever Young the third betting choice in Derby 150 run on May 4 at Churchill Downs.

Still, there are things to be wary about when it comes to Forever Young, most notably his apparent disdain for kickback. In a 20-horse field, the number of contestants expected for the Derby, and in the absence of a wide, ground-loss type of trip, Forever Young will most likely have to contend with kickback at Churchill Downs.

“He’s not going to be able to break as fast as the American horses, he’s just going to have to take the kickback,” Ryusei Sakai, the jockey of Forever Young, said Wednesday through an interpreter.

Sakai has been aboard Forever Young for all five of his victories. The first three came at tracks in Japan as a 2-year-old. This year, Forever Young took his game on the road, winning the Grade 3 Saudi Derby in Saudi Arabia by a head over the American-based Book’em Danno in February. Five weeks later, in the U.A.E. Derby, Forever Young outfinished the Southern Hemisphere 4-year-old Auto Bahn to win by two lengths.

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In both races, Sakai was cognizant of keeping Forever Young’s face clean. In the Saudi Derby, a one-turn mile race, Forever Young raced four to five wide, followed Book’em Danno, and eventually ran that one down while racing on the wrong lead. That he was able to get up in such a short race impressed Sakai.

“He’s a really talented horse. Even at the shorter distance, he showed his class,” Sakai said.

In Dubai, Sakai had Forever Young fifth early, while three wide and in the clear, before running down Auto Bahn. In Dubai, trainer Yoshito Yahagi equipped Forever Young with a mask, or a hood. It looks like blinkers, but they don’t have the cups on the outside of the eyes.

“The hood does help with that but depending how much kickback he gets we won’t know that until the race,” Sakai said.

In an effort to get accustomed to the kickback at Churchill, Forever Young has been training behind another horse in the mornings. On Wednesday, when Forever Young had an official workout, he started behind the Dale Romans-trained unraced 3-year-old Cuffed Candy and took dirt before coming up that one’s inside and drawing away from him in the final furlong. Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch timed Forever Young in 1:19.68 for six furlongs, with a solid final quarter in 23.77 seconds.

“Having that company was vital,” Sakai said. “Each track is different, and it’s hard to know how he’s going to react to it, but up to this point he seems to be doing quite well.”

Yahagi, among the most successful trainers in Japan, has done quite well in the United States. In 2021, at Del Mar, Yahagi sent out the winners of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Loves Only You) and the Distaff (March Lorraine).

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, the U.A.E. Derby has been, to be kind, unproductive. Beginning in 2000 and through last year, 19 horses have come out of the U.A.E. Derby with no horse finishing better than sixth.

Forever Young and the Japan-based T O Password, who has won his only two starts, will be the seventh and eighth Japanese horses to contest the Derby. Last year, U.A.E. Derby winner Derma Sotogake finished sixth at 7-1.

Sakai, who is expected to ride T O Saint Denis in the Alysheba Stakes on May 3 at Churchill after riding engagements in Japan and Hong Kong over the next week, said he is hopeful about his chances in the Derby.

“The level of the American horses is so high, but I’m ready to take on the challenge together with Forever Young,” he said.

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