2023 Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 19, 2023

WHO’S HOT

Disarm finished third with a 90 Beyer in the Lexington Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland. The performance was not remarkable, but it was good enough. The Louisiana Derby runner-up needed a third-place finish or higher in the Lexington to earn at least six points and make the Derby field with 46 points or more. Mission accomplished. Disarm makes the cut, as trainer Steve Asmussen seeks his first Kentucky Derby victory with his 25th Derby starter. Disarm is 30-1 by Derby Watch linemaker David Aragona.

WHO’S NOT

Jace’s Road, third while nearly three lengths behind Disarm in the Louisiana Derby, is thwarted again by his nemesis. Jace’s Road was pushed off the Kentucky Derby leaderboard to make room for Disarm. As of Wednesday morning, Jace’s Road’s 45-point total and first tie-breaker (non-restricted stakes earnings) ranks 21st. Twenty horses can start in the Derby. Whether he would be a legitimate contender is debatable. Jace’s Road was 50-1 in Derby Watch on April 14, prior to being supplanted this week.

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Skinner is in a similar predicament, though unlike Jace’s Road, Skinner would actually have a chance to win the Derby. Skinner finished a wide-trip third in the Santa Anita Derby, beaten a half-length. Considering ground loss, one could argue Skinner ran better than one-two Santa Anita Derby finishers Practical Move and Mandarin Hero. Skinner, 22nd on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, needs two defections to make the field.

ON THE BUBBLE

Jace’s Road and Skinner are first and second preferences into the Derby field, followed by these horses ranked 23-26, in preference order: Cyclone Mischief, Major Dude, Mandarin Hero, and King Russell. Churchill Downs allows a maximum of four also-eligible entrants in the Kentucky Derby. Blazing Sevens is still in the Kentucky Derby field with 46 points, but as of midweek he was not a confirmed starter.

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