2021 Breeders' Cup Mile: Domestic stalwarts look up against it vs. European rivals
This much seems certain: There’s little separating the California contingent likely for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Saturday at Santa Anita, Mo Forza won the City of Hope Mile, the SoCal BC Mile prep, by a half-length over Smooth Like Strait, with Hit the Road a neck farther back in third. Smooth Like Straight got caught up in a hot pace, while Hit the Road had a really tough trip as the second- and third-place finishers ran at least as well as the victor.
But is any among this trio good enough to run with whichever Europeans come for the BC Mile? For that matter, is any North American horse?
More data points informing the answer to that question will become available Saturday at Keeneland, which hosts the Keeneland Turf Mile, the last North American race with BC Mile ramifications. Among the Wednesday entrants for the race was Ivar, who won the 2020 renewal before finishing a solid fourth in the BC Mile. Ivar has raced only once since the Breeders’ Cup and starts Saturday for the first time since May, owing to a physical setback, and will be joined in the starting gate by his Paulo Lobo-trained stablemate Bonne Chance, a good winner at Kentucky Downs last month.
Space Traveller, imported from Europe earlier this year and second last out in the Woodbine Mile, also runs Saturday at Keeneland and could punch his BC Mile ticket with another strong showing. The East Coast turf mile division has been messy all year.
It’s easy to picture a scene of European dominance in this renewal of the BC Mile, and that could, in fact, start in the Keeneland Mile, which drew Order of Australia, the Aidan O’Brien-trained winner of the 2020 BC Mile. He could wind up at Del Mar to defend his title, and last Sunday at Longchamp, Space Blues looked like a major Mile player winning the Group 1 Prix de la Foret.
Space Blues’s sweet spot in overseas races has come at 6 1/2 to seven furlongs, but he is not a pure short sprinter and a European horse who can succeed at seven furlongs in a race like the Foret – which Space Blues dominated with a powerful run from the back of the field – can get a mile on a tight course like Del Mar’s. Space Blues won Sunday over heavy ground but has run well on much firmer footing, too. His connections, Godolphin and trainer Charlie Appleby, also have the 3-year-old Master of The Seas under BC Mile consideration.
Overseas participation hinges on the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Oct. 16 at Ascot, expected to draw Europe’s top-ranked milers, Palace Pier, Poetic Flare, and Baaeed. Poetic Flare, who does his best work on the sort of firmer going he won’t get in the QE II, is the one most likely to be shipped to Del Mar.