2020 Eclipse Awards: Improbable
Improbable was good enough to be favored in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, but he came up short more often than not as a 3-year-old, winning one time in seven starts. The 2020 model of this attractive, chestnut-colored colt was bigger, stronger, and faster.
Improbable raced five times at four tracks and won three times – all his wins in Grade 1 company – his only losses second-place finishes in the Oaklawn Mile to Tom’s d’Etat and in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland to Authentic.
The high points for Improbable were the Gold Cup and Awesome Again at Santa Anita, and the Whitney at Saratoga. He displayed versatility – stalking from the start in the Gold Cup and Whitney, lagging back and blasting home in the Awesome Again – but each time prevailed by daylight while earning Beyer Speed Figures of at least 105.
“He’s a much better horse this year,” his trainer, Bob Baffert, said after the Awesome Again, which he won by 4 1/2 lengths over Maximum Security with a Beyer of 108. “He’s filled out. He was a lighter horse last year. He was immature. He can still be a handful. But the talent has always been there.”
Prior to the trips to Oaklawn, Saratoga, and Keeneland, Improbable would train in Southern California, where he would cut an impressive figure every time he breezed. He was an enthusiastic work horse, and that carried over into the afternoons. Improbable sometimes was too eager, as he’d frequently get keyed up in the starting gate, as if he was rarin’ to go.
:: Full list of 2020 Eclipse Awards finalists, including profile stories
Improbable began his 2020 campaign at Oaklawn. It was his first start in five months, and he acquitted himself well, getting caught late after being forced wide the whole way.
Drayden Van Dyke rode him at Oaklawn, and was aboard for victories in the Gold Cup and Awesome Again. But when Improbable traveled to the Eastern time zone, for the Whitney and Breeders’ Cup Classic, Irad Ortiz Jr. got the call.
Improbable was trained throughout his career by Baffert, who is seeking his first champion in this division. Improbable would be the third Southern California-based horse in the last five years to win this award, following California Chrome in 2016 and Accelerate in 2018.
Improbable, a son of City Zip out of the A.P. Indy mare Rare Event, was bred by St. George Farm LLC and G. Watts Humphrey Jr., and was purchased as a yearling for $200,000. He raced for WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and SF Racing, and retired after the Classic with career earnings of $2,729,520. He is currently at WinStar in Versailles, Ky., awaiting the start of the breeding season next month.