2018 Road to the Derby: Tampa Bay Derby analysis

Grade 2, $355,000 Tampa Bay Derby; 1 1/16 miles; Tampa Bay Downs; March 10, 2018
(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Quip, by Distorted Humor
Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and S F Racing
Beyer Speed Figure: 94

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis

This has been a heady Kentucky Derby prep season for WinStar Farm, which bred Bolt d’Oro, and has ownership interests in top prospects like Audible, Justify, and Noble Indy. Now you can add QUIP to the list following this win, in which he earned enough points to guarantee a spot in the Derby field.

Quip was making his first start of the year. He encountered trouble and was seventh in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs in his final start at 2. At the time, I questioned how much depth there was to that field, in part because of the 81 Beyer Speed Figure assigned the victorious Enticed, but the race has yielded a bounty of stakes winners this year, including Bravazo, Enticed, Promises Fulfilled, and Reride. Clearly it has proven to be a strong race, with Quip adding to the ledger. As with Promises Fulfilled, Quip got a vastly superior figure, a career best, to kick off his 3-year-old campaign.

In this race, Quip broke well and set up shop just behind and outside of pacesetter WORLD OF TROUBLE around the first turn, appeared eager to advance but was deftly handled by Geroux to maintain a moderate pace, stayed in that stalking position into and around the far turn, was asked for his best into the lane, finally got the best of World of Trouble in deep stretch and safely held off FLAMEAWAY. The soft pace definitely helped both Quip and World of Trouble and hindered the late runners.

Flameaway, who was second, broke half a step slowly and checked immediately, losing position. The pace allowed him to quickly advance into a stalking position three wide behind World of Trouble and Quip around the first turn. He stayed in that spot to the far turn, was outfooted three furlongs out despite being asked to hold his position, but kept plugging away and gained the place late. He might not be the best of this crop, but he sure tries every time, no matter the surface.

World of Trouble, who was third, bobbled leaving the gate but used his natural speed to make the top. He led while under restraint, setting an easy pace, led narrowly over Quip down the backstretch and through the far turn, battled with Quip to the sixteenth pole, swapped to his wrong lead while starting to get weary, and weakened late. This was his first start around two turns. He’s probably going to be a far better sprinter. He ran as well as he could here.

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VINO ROSSO, who was fourth, raced just inside of Flameaway around the first turn while fourth, remained inside and just behind the top two to the far turn, could not keep up with the top three beginning three furlongs out, and went evenly the rest of the way.

TIZ MISCHIEF, who was fifth, saved ground while mid-pack around the first turn, stayed inside all the way until late on the far turn, swung out to the four path for the stretch drive, but was always well back and never threatened. The pace did him no favors, but he doesn’t seem to have progressed at all this year.

UNTAMED DOMAIN, who finished sixth, broke a bit slowly and raced on his wrong lead early, moved up to be mid-pack while three paths wide on the first turn, went into the far turn four paths wide, came into the stretch on his wrong lead, and made no impact. This was his first try on dirt. Back to the turf for him.

CALORIC, who was seventh, raced toward the rear while three paths wide on the first turn, advanced a bit early on the far turn while five paths wide, but could not sustain his rally and was well back through the lane.

ARAZI LIKE MOVE, who was eighth, raced towards the rear while between runners around the first turn, stayed in that spot to the far turn, yielded more ground beginning three furlongs out, and was never in the hunt at any point.

GRANDPA KNOWS BEST, who finished last of nine, stumbled badly leaving the gate, got rank in the opening furlong, ended up about three paths wide while towards the rear of the field around the first turn, saved ground much of the backstretch and around the far turn while trailing, had nothing to offer and was allowed to coast home when the cause was obviously lost.