2018 Road to the Derby: Risen Star analysis

Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes; 1 1/16 miles; Fair Grounds; Feb. 17, 2018
(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Bravazo, by Awesome Again
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Miguel Mena
Owner: Calumet Farm
Beyer Speed Figure: 93

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis

BRAVAZO appeared to tail off toward the end of his five-race campaign at 2, but he has come back strong at age 3, winning both his starts, including this upset victory in the first of the Kentucky Derby preps that offers 50 points to the winner, essentially making this a Win and You’re In race.

The winning figure of this race was decent, but still below those who rank as the best of the division (Good Magic, McKinzie, Bolt d’Oro). And this was an ideal pace situation for the top two, who essentially turned this into a match race. The fourth quarter-mile of the race was run in less than 24 seconds, giving those who were trying to close little chance. There was little positional change the whole race for the entire field.

I’d want to see these horses make forward moves in their next – and likely final – start before the Derby to take any of them as serious win candidates on May 5.

In this race, Bravazo was forwardly placed throughout, and the relatively soft pace allowed him and SNAPPER SINCLAIR to run one-two the whole way. Bravazo went into the first turn three paths wide while just outside Snapper Sinclair, raced right outside Snapper Sinclair down the backstretch and around the far turn, had Snapper Sinclair get away from him a bit in upper stretch when he was late to change leads, but after changing leads he was able to cut into the deficit and erase it in time for the narrowest of victories.

:: The Road to the Kentucky Derby Player's Package

Snapper Sinclair, who was second, lost a brutally close finish. He was sent along aggressively leaving the gate to split horses and lead into the first turn, had Bravazo right alongside all the way into the lane, was able to get away slightly in upper stretch, but couldn’t quite hold off Bravazo late. He’s shown he’s more than a turf specialist, but this race was ideal for a turf horse, for it unfolded like a turf race, with a moderate pace and strong finish. And he never had to face any kickback.

NOBLE INDY, who was third, broke sharpest while bumping with GIVEMEAMINIT and was inside of both Snapper Sinclair and Bravazo early on the first turn before easing back to sit right behind those two. He sat in some traffic between runners around the far turn, got through inside and loomed menacingly, but lost his punch a bit late. He was closer to the top two 150 yards out than he was at the finish.

INSTILLED REGARD, who was fourth, raced between horses in the second flight of runners just behind the leaders around the first turn, advanced toward the leaders while three paths wide on the far turn and got right up to Bravazo’s hip midway on that turn, couldn’t keep pace with the leaders in upper stretch, and went evenly through the final furlong.

HIGH NORTH, who finished fifth, saved ground in the second flight of runners around the first turn, got shuffled back a bit into the backstretch but then had an opening along the rail and moved into an ideal position just behind the top two, had to wait while following Snapper Sinclair on the far turn, but could not keep up through the lane. He never left the rail, but the race shape was against him. He’s much better making a run into some pace, and that never happened here. He also probably needed the race, since it was his first start of the year. I’d give him another chance, especially if he gets in a race with some early heat.

EBBEN, who was sixth, was three paths wide while towards the rear of the field around the first turn, raced three paths wide on the far turn while following Instilled Regard, came under an aggressive ride in upper stretch, but could make no impact.

PRINCIPE GUILHERME, who was seventh, raced three to four paths wide around the first turn, never could get over down the backstretch and went into the far turn in the four path, just outside Instilled Regard, and had no kick down the lane. This was a step backward for him, but the wide trip and soft pace did him no favors.

Givemeaminit, who was eighth, bumped with Noble Indy leaving the gate, was taken back to trail into the first turn while hugging the rail, trailed down the backstretch and around the far turn, eased off the rail nearing the quarter pole, and made up some ground late but, like many who tried to rally in this race, was severely compromised by the pace.

SUPREME AURA, who finished last of nine, raced between horses toward the rear of the pack around the first turn, remained well back down the backstretch, raced about three to four paths wide on the far turn while being asked to rally, but never got involved. He was coming out of a sprint in which he was forwardly placed, so the tactics here certainly didn’t help his cause, and his absence from the early pace helped the top two and hindered those who were trying to rally.

This was a strange race on many fronts.