2018 Road to the Derby: Gotham Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham Stakes; one mile; Aqueduct; March 10, 2018
(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Enticed, by Medaglia d’Oro
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Owner: Godolphin Racing LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 95

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis

ENTICED rebounded from a disappointing 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull last month at Gulfstream to score a clear-cut victory here while earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure.

I’m torn over him, though. While it is absolutely a positive development that his fig in this race was a marked improvement from the Holy Bull, or anything he’d done at 2, he got an ideal trip in this race, with a cozy outside draw that is beneficial in a one-turn mile. It’s even more beneficial for him specifically, considering that the main reason offered by his connections for his performance in the Holy Bull is that he did not like being inside.

His reticence to race inside, or perhaps in traffic, has to be overcome in the next two months, because the Kentucky Derby - with 20 horses going two turns, with plenty of bumping and jostling - is a completely different animal than the Gotham. One huge advantage for Enticed is that he already owns a win at Churchill Downs, in last fall’s Kentucky Jockey Club.

In this race, Enticed broke a half a step slowly, was allowed to find his best stride without being rushed, and settled mid-pack outside rivals, advanced while about five paths wide heading into the far turn, moved authoritatively on the turn to go after pacesetting OLD TIME REVIVAL, made no impact from the five-sixteenths to the three-sixteenths, but wore down Old Time Revival in the final furlong and was taken in hand late after making the top. He’s a big horse who needs room to strut his stuff. The race also had a distinct outside flow, which also aided his cause.

Old Time Revival, who finished second, broke well and set or forced the early pace outside of COVE BLUE, led narrowly after a quick half in 46.43 seconds, put away Cove Blue early on the far turn to open a daylight lead, maintained a daylight lead into the lane, switched leads a bit late, could not hold off the winner but was well clear of everyone else. It was a very good performance considering the hot pace and where his pace rival ended up.

FREE DROP BILLY, who finished third, broke well but was quickly overtaken by speedier rivals and found himself in front of just one horse a furlong into the race, got closer heading into the far turn, entered the turn in the four path while just inside of Enticed, was in striking position a quarter-mile out, but could not make up any ground on the top two through the lane. Considering where he was vis-à-vis Enticed with three furlongs to go, he was clearly inferior to the winner.

FIRENZE FIRE, who was fourth, got shuffled back to seventh in the opening quarter-mile, had to wait in a bit of traffic while just inside Free Drop Billy while in the three path heading into the far turn, followed NINE ROUTE initially on the turn, was able to angle to the two path midway on the turn, but went evenly through the lane and lost ground to Free Drop Billy in the final furlong. Considering that one-turn miles have been his specialty – with wins in the Champagne and Jerome – this was a disappointing race for a horse whose two-turn aptitude is questionable. Might he be over the top?

WHERESHETOLDMETOGO, who was fifth, checked slightly early and dropped back to last, rallied in the three path on the far turn, then raced on his wrong lead while drifting in through the lane while never a threat.

Cove Blue, who was sixth, had sharp speed from his inside draw and vied for the early lead with Old Time Revival, started to lose ground three furlongs out, and faded through the lane.

Nine Route, who was seventh, raced in third early – just behind and outside Cove Blue and Old Time Revival – had to be nudged a half-mile out to hold his position, began to weaken midway on the turn, then readily yielded.

BEAUTIFUL SHOT, who was eighth, raced mid-pack while between rivals in the two path down the backstretch, was outrun initially on the far turn and then had to take up sharply, dropped back to last, and then passed a weary rival late. He had significant trouble, but it looked to me like it occurred because he was being outrun at the time and horses folded over on him.

DIAL OPERATOR, who finished last of nine, was on the rail while just behind the top two down the backstretch – an ideal striking position – but began to be outrun miway on the turn and tired badly.