100-plus Beyer Figures, blessing or curse?
ARCADIA, Calif. – Masochistic and Firing Line return this weekend, burdened by lofty expectations. Both are odds-on favorites making their first start of the season – Masochistic in race 7 Friday, and Firing Line in race 4 Saturday.
The similarities between Masochistic and Firing Line go beyond price. A year ago, both were established Grade 1-caliber runners. Masochistic was a Grade 1-winning sprinter; Firing Line finished second in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
They enter respective weekend allowances as the “class” of the field. Masochistic has dazzled in comeback workouts and will be tough to beat Friday in the allowance sprint. Firing Line, on the other hand, seems vulnerable in the allowance route Saturday.
While handicappers can differ with the preceding analysis, an irrefutable fact is that both Masochistic and Firing Line were among an elite group last season. Only 38 dirt runners in 2015 earned triple-digit Beyer Figures on three or more occasions (list at bottom).
Sixteen returned to start at least once in North America in 2016, and most were under-valued. Only three won their first start of the year – Ivan Fallunovalat ($4) on Jan. 30 at Oaklawn Park, La Verdad ($2.80) on Jan. 9 at Aqueduct, and Upstart ($7.20) on March 19 at Oaklawn. (Note: Confrontation and Frosted both won their first start of 2016 in Dubai.)
The list of beaten favorites, first start back, is extensive – Effinex, Favorite Tale, Green Gratto, Holy Boss, Keen Ice, Red Vine, Salutos Amigos, and Valid. So that’s three winning favorites, and eight beaten favorites.
Clearly, it is tough to make money backing low-odds runners in 2016, based largely on form established in 2015. The overall 2016 first-start back record of runners that earned triple-digit Beyers three or more times in 2015 is 16-3-3-7.
Perhaps the one-year sample would not withstand multiple-season scrutiny, but it serves as a reminder. In many cases, backing a low-odds comebacker is taking all the worst of it.
It is something to keep in mind when Masochistic and Firing Line make their first start of the season as odds-on favorites Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita.
|
Triple-digit Beyers (dirt), three times or more 2015 |
Date, track | Beyer |
|---|---|---|
| American Pharoah | 31Oct15-11KEE | 120 |
| American Pharoah | 2Aug15-12MTH | 109 |
| American Pharoah | 11Apr15-11OP | 105 |
| American Pharoah | 2May15-11CD | 105 |
| American Pharoah | 6Jun15-11BEL | 105 |
| American Pharoah | 29Aug15-11SAR | 105 |
| American Pharoah | 16May15-13PIM | 102 |
| American Pharoah | 14Mar15-10OP | 100 |
| Appealing Tale | 3Oct15-5BEL | 108 |
| Appealing Tale | 25Jul15-8DMR | 102 |
| Appealing Tale | 31May15-8SA | 101 |
| Appealing Tale | 27Jun15-7SA | 101 |
| Catch a Flight (ARG) | 30May15-8SA | 106 |
| Catch a Flight (ARG) | 7Mar15-11SA | 105 |
| Catch a Flight (ARG) | 2May15-10SA | 102 |
| Catch a Flight (ARG) | 25Jul15-8DMR | 102 |
| Catch a Flight (ARG) | 22Aug15-9DMR | 102 |
| Coach Inge | 5Sep15-10SAR | 106 |
| Coach Inge | 4Jul15-9BEL | 105 |
| Coach Inge | 22Apr15-8AQU | 104 |
| Coach Inge | 6Jun15-6BEL | 102 |
| Commissioner | 28Mar15-5GP | 109 |
| Commissioner | 15May15-14PIM | 102 |
| Commissioner | 28Nov15-8HAW | 100 |
| Confrontation | 10Jan15-7GP | 105 |
| Confrontation | 2May15-6BEL | 104 |
| Confrontation | 28Mar15-8GP | 103 |
| Confrontation | 19Jun15-6BEL | 103 |
| Confrontation | 7Feb15-11GP | 100 |
| Dads Caps | 7Feb15-3AQU | 103 |
| Dads Caps | 4Apr15-11AQU | 102 |
| Dads Caps | 7Mar15-4AQU | 100 |
| Dortmund | 4Apr15-8SA | 106 |
| Dortmund | 24Oct15-8SA | 105 |
| Dortmund | 7Feb15-5SA | 104 |
| Dortmund | 7Mar15-7SA | 104 |
| Dortmund | 28Nov15-8DMR | 103 |
| Dortmund | 2May15-11CD | 101 |
| Effinex | 31Oct15-11KEE | 112 |
| Effinex | 25Apr15-8AQU | 107 |
| Effinex | 4Jul15-9BEL | 107 |
| Effinex | 27Nov15-11CD | 104 |
| Effinex | 5Sep15-10SAR | 103 |
| Effinex | 27Mar15-8AQU | 100 |
| Favorite Tale | 5Jul15-11GP | 106 |
| Favorite Tale | 26Sep15-5PRX | 105 |
| Favorite Tale | 31Oct15-7KEE | 103 |
| Favorite Tale | 1Aug15-8SAR | 101 |
| Firing Line | 7Feb15-5SA | 104 |
| Firing Line | 2May15-11CD | 104 |
| Firing Line | 22Mar15-11SUN | 103 |
| Frosted | 19Sep15-10PRX | 106 |
| Frosted | 1Aug15-10SAR | 104 |
| Frosted | 4Apr15-10AQU | 103 |
| Frosted | 31Oct15-11KEE | 103 |
| Frosted | 29Aug15-11SAR | 102 |
| Frosted | 2May15-11CD | 100 |
| Gimme Da Lute | 2Aug15-5DMR | 107 |
| Gimme Da Lute | 4Jul15-8LRC | 102 |
| Gimme Da Lute | 4Apr15-3SA | 100 |
| Golden Lad | 14Feb15-9OP | 101 |
| Golden Lad | 30May15-3PEN | 101 |
| Golden Lad | 27Jun15-7PRM | 100 |
| Green Gratto | 26Dec15-8AQU | 107 |
| Green Gratto | 18Nov15-8AQU | 101 |
| Green Gratto | 26Nov15-8AQU | 101 |
| Hard Aces | 31Oct15-11KEE | 104 |
| Hard Aces | 17Jan15-7FG | 103 |
| Hard Aces | 7Mar15-11SA | 102 |
| Holy Boss | 1Aug15-5SAR | 102 |
| Holy Boss | 16May15-10PIM | 100 |
| Holy Boss | 29Aug15-8SAR | 100 |
| Holy Boss | 31Oct15-7KEE | 100 |
| Honor Code | 8Aug15-9SAR | 113 |
| Honor Code | 6Jun15-9BEL | 112 |
| Honor Code | 31Oct15-11KEE | 105 |
| Honor Code | 7Mar15-10GP | 104 |
| Honor Code | 3Oct15-5BEL | 101 |
| Hoppertunity | 30Oct15-5KEE | 104 |
| Hoppertunity | 27Nov15-11CD | 103 |
| Hoppertunity | 26Sep15-10SA | 102 |
| Hoppertunity | 25Jul15-8DMR | 100 |
| Ivan Fallunovalot | 22Jan15-8OP | 107 |
| Ivan Fallunovalot | 7Feb15-8OP | 104 |
| Ivan Fallunovalot | 7Mar15-6OP | 104 |
| Ivan Fallunovalot | 9Apr15-8OP | 102 |
| Ivan Fallunovalot | 27Sep15-5RP | 101 |
| Keen Ice | 29Aug15-11SAR | 106 |
| Keen Ice | 2Aug15-12MTH | 105 |
| Keen Ice | 31Oct15-11KEE | 104 |
| Keen Ice | 27Nov15-11CD | 102 |
| La Verdad | 29Jul15-4SAR | 102 |
| La Verdad | 26Sep15-7BEL | 102 |
| La Verdad | 16May15-6BEL | 101 |
| La Verdad | 28Jun15-3BEL | 101 |
| Lea | 7Feb15-13GP | 110 |
| Lea | 30Oct15-7KEE | 109 |
| Lea | 13Jun15-8CD | 108 |
| Lea | 10Jan15-7GP | 106 |
| Liam's Map | 5Sep15-10SAR | 114 |
| Liam's Map | 30Oct15-7KEE | 114 |
| Liam's Map | 8Aug15-9SAR | 113 |
| Liam's Map | 19Jun15-6BEL | 106 |
| Masochistic | 27Jun15-7SA | 109 |
| Masochistic | 26Jul15-6DMR | 103 |
| Masochistic | 11Apr15-5SA | 102 |
| Moreno | 7Mar15-11SA | 105 |
| Moreno | 18Apr15-12CT | 105 |
| Moreno | 30May15-8SA | 105 |
| Private Zone | 31Oct15-7KEE | 106 |
| Private Zone | 4Jul15-11BEL | 105 |
| Private Zone | 29Aug15-9SAR | 105 |
| Private Zone | 7Mar15-10GP | 103 |
| Private Zone | 6Jun15-9BEL | 101 |
| Private Zone | 2May15-9CD | 100 |
| Race Day | 11Apr15-7OP | 109 |
| Race Day | 14Mar15-8OP | 105 |
| Race Day | 30Oct15-5KEE | 105 |
| Race Day | 7Feb15-11GP | 104 |
| Race Day | 27Nov15-11CD | 101 |
| Red Vine | 23May15-11MTH | 106 |
| Red Vine | 5Jul15-10MTH | 105 |
| Red Vine | 3Oct15-5BEL | 105 |
| Red Vine | 28Nov15-9AQU | 104 |
| Red Vine | 30Oct15-7KEE | 103 |
| Red Vine | 22Aug15-9DMR | 100 |
| Rock Fall | 5Jun15-8BEL | 110 |
| Rock Fall | 18Apr15-6KEE | 109 |
| Rock Fall | 1Aug15-8SAR | 106 |
| Rock Fall | 26Sep15-9BEL | 104 |
| Runhappy | 29Aug15-8SAR | 113 |
| Runhappy | 31Oct15-7KEE | 108 |
| Runhappy | 2Oct15-8KEE | 104 |
| Runhappy | 26Dec15-8SA | 102 |
| Salutos Amigos | 7Mar15-4AQU | 110 |
| Salutos Amigos | 7Feb15-3AQU | 108 |
| Salutos Amigos | 28Jun15-11MTH | 106 |
| Salutos Amigos | 26Sep15-9BEL | 103 |
| Souper Lucky | 12Mar15-4LRL | 110 |
| Souper Lucky | 2May15-6BEL | 102 |
| Souper Lucky | 18Jul15-3LRL | 102 |
| Stallwalkin' Dude | 1May15-5BEL | 103 |
| Stallwalkin' Dude | 26Sep15-9BEL | 103 |
| Stallwalkin' Dude | 5Dec15-6GP | 103 |
| Stallwalkin' Dude | 10May15-8BEL | 100 |
| Stallwalkin' Dude | 5Jun15-8BEL | 100 |
| Tonalist | 2May15-6BEL | 111 |
| Tonalist | 8Aug15-9SAR | 110 |
| Tonalist | 3Oct15-10BEL | 109 |
| Tonalist | 4Jul15-9BEL | 107 |
| Tonalist | 6Jun15-9BEL | 105 |
| Tonalist | 28Nov15-9AQU | 105 |
| Tonalist | 31Oct15-11KEE | 104 |
| Upstart | 28Mar15-14GP | 108 |
| Upstart | 24Jan15-9GP | 105 |
| Upstart | 2Aug15-12MTH | 100 |
| Valid | 7Feb15-11GP | 105 |
| Valid | 10Jan15-7GP | 103 |
| Valid | 5Jul15-10MTH | 103 |
| Valid | 7Mar15-10GP | 102 |
| Valid | 23May15-11MTH | 102 |
| Valid | 12Dec15-10GP | 102 |
| Valid | 2Aug15-10MTH | 101 |
| Valid | 30Aug15-10MTH | 100 |
| Wicked Strong | 5Sep15-10SAR | 104 |
| Wicked Strong | 25Apr15-8AQU | 103 |
| Wicked Strong | 8Aug15-9SAR | 103 |
| Wicked Strong | 7Mar15-10GP | 102 |
| Wicked Strong | 3Oct15-10BEL | 102 |