David: 

$1.2 million Resolute-owned PHANTOM BLUE (#1) should find herself in the winner's circle if she progresses at all from her debut, a solid effort in which she tired late after contesting an honest pace. She might have held second but was herded out slightly in upper stretch, losing momentum. Her pedigree says longer will be better, but she still has to prove it on the track. It is noteworthy that she caught a sloppy track on debut and she has plenty of turf in her pedigree, so I'll be intrigued to see if she is as effective over a fast strip.

The other second time starter SOARING HIGH (#6) returns from a layoff after disappointing as the favorite on debut last fall. The daughter of champion Songbird took money based on pedigree that day and figures to once again. She obviously has a right to do better, and her workouts for this return suggest she'll progress. I just didn't see value with her.

I want to bet SISTER JEAN (#3), who is better than her running lines down at Fair Grounds suggest. She had little chance to close in a speed-dominated, slow-paced race on debut, just getting some education. She seemed ready to step forward second time out, but the trip didn’t really materialize. She stumbled and took up sharply at the start. She traveled well into the race from there, but some indecision in upper stretch cost her late momentum. Since then she's trained well at Churchill, notably outworking Oaks runner Nycon in that Apr. 24 drill. If she breaks cleanly this time, I expect her to outrun her odds.

Marcus: 

Easy to envision PHANTOM BLUE (#1) galloping home an open-lengths winner, but as obvious as is her case for contention, it’s just as obvious she’ll widely be seen as a sure thing. David hit the high points regarding skepticism – fast track, two turns.

I suppose SOARING HIGH (#6) could wind up the classic overbet second choice, but if you, like me, think she might have as much ability as Phantom Blue, perhaps that price seems fair. My guess at that has as its basis mainly workout video, but also the knowledge that this barn does well readying horses – the right horses – for representative performance first race after a layoff.

Regarding SISTER JEAN (#3), I have such a low opinion of the Fair Grounds maiden race in which she last ran that it’s almost a case of guilt by association. If not the favorite, of course, she could do in this race. Her trainer, Whit Beckman, went to Florida this winter and his better stock followed him. The Fair Grounds-based horses had not shown as much, and this filly fits the profile. You run a horse like this over 1 1/16 miles second out because for the most part they have one potential useful attribute: grinding. Maybe that’s all it will take here.

For wagers below: (D) = David, (M) = Marcus

Marcus: 

I think FIVE A SIDE (#9) stands a strong chance of winning this. Also think she could go off considerably lower than the listed 3-1 odds. This race ought to unfold at a rapid pace. Five a Side’s drawn well on the outside. She’ll sit several lengths off the pace, probably wide and in the clear, and come forward steadily around the turn and into the homestretch. Connections have run this horse twice over 1 1/4 and once at 1 1/8 miles – she looks like a miler to me. And I’d guess this one-turn mile will prove even better for her than two turns. Her dirt form is all right, and all but one of her dirt races came before she started running in blinkers. Do I want to bet this horse to win? I do not.

CARMEL ROSE (#8) is in over her head. CHOPSTICKS (#3) really was not a very good 2-year-old, and I’d want nothing to do with her at the listed odds. AMALFI DRIVE (#1) has a tough draw down on the fence; I don’t care for her, either. QUANTUM BURST (#5) did lose to a pretty high-quality horse two back and was wide last time, and might be headed toward a peak in the third race after a long break, but I struggle to see how she gets the right trip, and I doubt there’s much upside here.

That leaves ANNA’S PROMISE (#6), DECADENT (#2), SUDDEN SWITCH (#7) and WHITE ROCKS (#4) – I list them in my order of preference – as the other horses to consider. Anna’s Promise holds some appeal as she climbs back toward her better 2025 form – form that says she can see out the mile well enough to hold up on a strong pace.

In the end, this is not a race I’m going to focus on playing.

David: 

Marcus covered a lot of ground here so I'll keep it relatively brief. I agree that FIVE A SIDE (#9) is the horse to beat but shared his concerns about lack of value. Here's my best attempt to narrow down a seemingly wide-open race:

I put QUANTUM BURST (#5) on top without a ton of conviction. She sprinted twice off the bench, and actually ran quite well at the Fair Grounds in a race that has turned out to be very live for the level. Then last time at Oaklawn she was never really in position to be effective, hung wide throughout. Nothing in her prior form suggested that she should be able to produce her best form at 6 furlongs, so I like her getting back out to a mile.

The other horse that intrigues me is WHITE ROCKS (#4) getting on dirt for the first time since she's actually bred for it decently despite having Kitten's Joy as a damsire. She proved she's not a turf horse in the Hilltop last year, and her synthetic form stacks up well against this group. Her last race is a concern, but I'll chalk that up to the addition of blinkers, which come right off here.

David: 

This is not your average first-level allowance, not that you'd expect it to be on the Oaks undercard. A couple of these fillies have already tried out graded stakes company, and figure to have success at that level in the future. STAR ACTRESS (#10) didn't run that much worse than top Kentucky Oaks contender Zany in the G1 Ashland last time, so she feels like the right starting point. She finished with a flourish on debut sprinting, and has progressed with added ground in subsequent starts. She gets some extra credit for closing into a slow pace despite racing wide on the second turn of the Ashland. It's unclear how the pace will materialize here, and she didn't draw well, but she might simply be the best filly in this field.

Main rival LEINANI (#9) attracted some buzz earlier this week when she worked favorably in company with Oaks contender Always a Runner. It was definitely a far cry from the last video of them paired together down at Payson. She appears to have come back around following that maiden score, and isn't supposed to struggle with the added distance. She's a contender, as is JOYFUL JUSTICE (#5), who finished behind a pair of these on debut but returned to break her maiden in the slop. She has to get added distance, but could have a favorable trip coming as the potential main speed.

I want to bet BETTY'S PEARL (#7), who shouldn't attract quite as much support as the three aforementioned runners. I think she's capable of better with the addition of blinkers. I'm sure Marcus and I will debate tomorrow how much a horse like Chief Wallabee really needs blinkers in the Derby, but if you want a clearer example of a horse who might benefit from blinkers, watch this filly's maiden score. She pricked her ears like her job was done when she struck the front, and was having none of Mario Gutierrez attempting to ride her out to the wire. Couple that with some of her hanging tendencies in prior starts, and she seems like a good candidate for headgear. They couldn't add blinkers off the win when she ran in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, but she didn't even run that badly without them, just losing third in the final sixteenth. Her form already compares favorably to the favorites, and we could see a sharper version of her on Friday.

Marcus: 

I’m not going to argue against Betty’s Pearl, who will be a fair price. I just think STAR ACTRESS (#10), despite losing to BP, is the more talented horse, and that her third-start upside surpasses Betty’s Pearl’s blinkers-on upside.

I have a stronger positive opinion on LEINANI (#9), though David’s workout analysis is spot-on. But keep in mind that Always Runner, to me, is a key Kentucky Oaks player. Working with a lesser talent at Payson Park, Leinani did just fine. Sprint, one-turn mile, two-turn route can be a great progression for a horse that wants to go long. My fear is she plummets well below the morning line, possibly below what I’d consider value.

Marcus: 

Another weak opinion race for me. There’s quite a bit of workout video from these first-time starters. None of it impressed me. I saw 8-1 on PASSERINE (#6) and figured she’d get bet below that for Cox, Ortiz, and Godolphin – she might, but from what I’ve seen, that’d be a poor investment. TAMMY’S KISS (#11) did work well April 24 going with the talented older horse Delightful Claire, but other work video did nothing for me. Prefer COUPLET (#4) among the firsters and included her in the mix, but that’s not an opinion I’d press.

Doesn’t HEDGE BOOK (#1) go off a pretty heavy favorite here? Would be nice to have stronger feelings about anyone else in the race, because while Hedge Book can win, she’s got her work cut out breaking from the rail in a bulky field. She lacks both speed and, from what I can tell, the nimble athleticism to work through traffic. The horse who beat her last time improved second out for Saffie Joseph and ran all right, but if Hedge Book were worth her likely price, she should have narrowed the gap more than she did in deep stretch.

I had liked SERENA’S SURPRISE (#8), but she's been scratched by the vet.

David: 

Marcus and I saw this one very differently. Is HEDGE BOOK (#1) really going to be a strong favorite? I suppose it's possible for these connections. Her lone dirt race came against an incredibly weak group at Tampa. This spot is significantly tougher.

We do agree that the first time starters aren't exactly giving vibes that they are ready to do anything extraordinary. If I took any of them, it would be TAMMY'S KISS (#11).

I won't knock Marcus's top pick. She'll be a price, and can obviously win here if that synthetic form translates. I just wanted others.

I was initially drawn to LEXI V. (#9), who faced a significantly strong field than this in her debut at Gulfstream and was hardly disgraced after contesting the pace. She didn't step forward much next time out, but ran into another talented foe. This is arguably slight class relief for her, and she figures to be a generous price.

Then I watched the debut of ROSE OF SAN ANTONE (#10), and decided she's the one I really want to bet. I know these are connections better known for winning at Turfway than Churchill, but this filly is a lot better than the result she achieved on debut at Keeneland. She was traveling well behind the leaders and just got totally blocked in traffic approaching the quarter pole, and shuffled out of position in upper stretch. She really never got a chance to run that day. It's not like that was an easy spot, and she still split the field despite having trouble. Now she's drawn outside where she can make better use of her speed, and I would expect a step forward.

David: 

The short prices didn't really do much for me in this maiden affair. I was primarily against PREPPED (#10), whose replays don't do much for me. He's lost at short prices down at Fair Grounds and doesn't always seem to put forth a genuine effort, not fully extending himself with that high head carriage. EXECUTIVE (#6) has shown some talent at points in his career, but a significant layoff derailed his progress. I still think he has some talent and can break through here if pace develops. I ranked ROYAL GUARD (#11) above both of those since he did make up some ground into a slow pace in his turf debut at Saratoga last year. I don't think that was a particularly strong field, but he has a right to have improved with time.

Still, I don't find any of these logical options are terribly compelling, and I want to go for a price if I'm going to bet this race – a big surprise, if you will. GRANDE SORPRESO (#3) doesn't have much turf pedigree to highlight on the dam's side – it's dirt breeding through and through with a sprinkling of synthetic influence in there. Yet he's by excellent turf sire Medaglia d'Oro and that influence appears to have come through strongly. He appears to have a turfy way of going, and seems to travel well early in his dirt races before coming up empty when called upon. I expect he'll carry his speed much farther on this surface, and can do so at a square price.

Marcus: 

Grande Sorpreso absolutely got a look from me. This is the kind of race where it can pay to explore every shadowed nook and cranny – as David points out, none of the shorter prices are necessarily much good.

I preferred the other Ian Wilkes-trained horse, CLARK’S CORNER (#2), though not in any substantial way. His Kentucky Downs race says he can do better than his most recent start – provided he’s not just a horse who handles that quirky course better than others. Weaving what I saw on work video with his participation as a first-time gelding, I could see something better.

Two more to mention that made my top three. CASH BONUS (#9) is the longer-priced Cherie DeVaux stablemate to Prepped, about whom I share David’s opinion. He had a weird trip in his debut, demanding, in my mind, for a first-timer, and I wonder if to some extent they just gave him the race hoping to see a step forward at the owner’s home track.

Talk about weird races: The sixth on Feb. 7 at Gulfstream shaped up very strangely. Clearly, BRIDGESONG (#1) moved too early, at least for a horse at his ability level, but the run he put in to make the lead caught the eye. Don’t know, don’t care why he was pulled up last out. My take on these situations is if the works back in good time and passes the vet to race – water under the bridge. There’s not much to the immediate family, but what there is leans turf. His April 24 breeze earned plaudits from the “professional” clockers in addition to looking quite encouraging to little old me.

Marcus: 

I would bet FRENCH BLUE (#12) to win at the listed 9-2 odds. Her debut victory at 3-5 got only a 67 Beyer – personally, I rate the performance considerably higher than that. The trip she pulled there is the same one she gets here – outside draw, stalking close and in the clear, pushing forward into the homestretch. I think it’ll work again. Obviously, her Santa Anita Oaks (blinkers off) was a disaster – so bad I’m treating it like it didn’t happen, but for the fact it confirmed what her Santa Ysabel suggested – that the filly needs one-turn racing. This horse has outworked stakes horses in the barn, including Derby runner Potente. I feel certain she has the requisite talent to win. And Baffert worked her at Churchill – super easy, mere maintenance – just five days after her last Santa Anita breeze. I think she comes to the race in good form.

PAIGE TURNER (#5) could win even if French Blue runs like I expect. Not much behind her in the Churchill maiden score, but she whipped those horses, and I’d guess the Fern Creek wasn’t run to suit – this filly would prefer to sit farther behind a faster pace and kick home with one run. That looks like this race. Work video suggests she’s set to exceed her 2-year-old peak returning from an extended layoff.

I have these two in a tier above everyone else. CARMEL COAST (#6) won’t be favored, but she also won’t be the right price to guess she wasn’t just a speedy, precocious 2-year-old. BLUE FLAME SIX (#13) would do better with the kind of trip she got in her debut win than the one in her recent stakes start, where she still ran well – the obvious question here being whether she can handle dirt. She did log nine dirt works at Churchill, Oaklawn, and Indiana, but I can’t find video for any of them.

David: 

I didn't like either Baffert horse. Marcus must see something in FRENCH BLUE (#12) that I don't. I agree her workouts have been impressive, but I have not seen that talent come through in the afternoon. She's a forward horse, and there's a ton of speed signed on in here, but at least she's drawn outside.

Some pace has scratched out of this race, but I still don't fully trust the speedball CARMEL COAST (#6), who both showed talent as a 2-year-old but returns from a lengthy layoff. If I'm going with a layoff horse, it would be PAIGE TURNER (#5). I view her as the horse to beat, but also think she'll go favored here. She has the right running style for this race and showed talent last season. Nothing clever in that opinion.

Is a closer like CAMILA CATALINA (#2) really impossible to get a big piece of this at a price? Her 2-year-old dirt form is hardly spectacular, but it's solid enough and her running style fits the pace situation perfectly.

My top pick is BLUE FLAME SIX (#13), who Marcus already covered. I agree dirt is a question mark, but she is a half-sister to Grade 1 dirt winner Mind Control as well as dirt stakes winner Goddess of Fire. These connections are based at Turfway during the winter, so I don't view it as a negative that she started out on synthetic. If she merely translates that form and gets the trip I expect, she should be very competitive here at a square price.

David: 

I don't really have any major knocks against SHISOSPICY (#6), who was terrific last year, ending her season on a high note with an imperious display in the Breeders' Cup. If she returns anywhere near that high point in her form, she'll trounce this group. There's a little other speed in here, but that's not supposed to matter to a filly who outran the best male sprinters in the country over a flat 5 furlongs last fall. The only issue is the layoff, and it's generally true that the best time to take on horses like this is when they make their returns, even if the vulnerabilities aren't apparent in their prior form.

For that reason, I had wanted to take a small shot against her with MAE TOWN (#1), but she's scratched. This race is now a skip for me.

Marcus: 

Little to add on the SHISOSPICY (#6) front other than I took her on top. Hardly ironclad evidence, but seeing the only recent workout video available convinced me she’s coming back the same horse.

We should probably mention QUEEN MAXIMA (#5) since she won this last year and figures a strong second choice. I’ve been amused reading various accounts of the soap opera that surrounded her last start. Won’t bore with the details, but the whole thing seemed overblown. Take in the whole of her form pattern and you might come to the conclusion she hasn’t been the same horse since her Unbridled Sidney triumph.

Marcus: 

One might worry GOODALL (#8) peaked in her third career start, the Purple Martin romp, and can’t run back to that performance. Her trainer, Steve Asmussen, clearly has put that top of mind in her works since the Purple Martin – light, light, light. Just keep the filly happy and in form. Don’t do too much. All she needs is to repeat the Purple Martin and this race is hers. Goodall has plenty of early speed – but works with her rider to deploy it. Strictly six furlongs? Not at all – her final furlong in the Purple Martin was excellent. She’s drawn outside the other speed; the trip won’t prove her undoing. The market kind of ignored her in the Purple Martin. I doubt that happens again, but I still could play her to win and lean on her in horizontal bets.

RIVER WIND (#3) took the worst of things in the Purple Martin – bad start from the rail, in very tight at the end of the far turn. She plugged away, an overbet favorite, and did still have something left at the finish, galloping out far in front after Goodall was reined in without being allowed to gallop out much at all. Churchill workout video – favorable. Her price goes up. Would she be willing to take a sit behind horses? I’m skeptical.

Wonder if we’ve seen the best of ON TIME GIRL (#9). Precocious, she won her first two, had a strong 2-year-old season, but got a perfect trip beating Paige Turner in the Fern Creek and, to me, didn’t improve when she won the Forward Gal at Gulfstream. I get that things didn’t fall her way in the Davona Dale. The two work videos since that race show solo drills – they look all right – I can’t glean a lot from them. She’ll take betting.

I’d rather project something better than her first two races for FRENCH FRICTION (#2). She won those in hand, geared down, albeit beating modest competition. Dreadful in the Ashland, though I’ve no earthly idea why one would want to rate a fast stretch-out sprinter on a 50-second half. Even at that walking pace she caved without a fight. She did breeze well at Churchill, but I doubt there are any options beyond going to the front from an inside draw.

David: 

Marcus and I are in near lockstep here, so I won't rehash his take on our shared top pick, GOODALL (#8).

The only horse I would add into the conversation is PARADISE (#4). She has to prove she isn't just a notch below graded stakes quality, but I don't think she wanted anything to do with 9 furlongs in the Gazelle. She appears to take more after her speedy dam, as a more compact, short-striding sort. I think she'll do better sprinting, but how much can the turnback move her forward? If she's double-digit odds, I'll include her.

David: 

BAEZA (#2) should win if he takes the natural step forward that you'd expect from age 3 to 4. But do you really want to bet on him doing so at a likely short price given the layoff and barn changes? SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING (#7) seems like a more reliable option. I just have trouble wrapping my head around him winning 4 graded stakes in a row as a 7-year-old. I have much respect for his longevity, but he was opportunistic in victory when he won the Pegasus and his surrounding stakes wins were achieved against vastly inferior company. He's in much deeper waters here.

The same is true for the pair exiting the Oaklawn Mile. Beyer rated the race quite low, but it felt like a stronger running than that fig would suggest. Perhaps NU WHAT'S NEW (#6) is just an Oaklawn specialist who will be totally exposed in a tougher spot at a new venue. I hold out some hope that he's more than just a horse for course. After all, it's not as if his breakout efforts at Oaklawn came out of nowhere. He had hinted at serious potential in some prior sprint starts, but trips and rides just weren't working out for him. Take, for example, that runner-up effort at Churchill in September. He lost, but he was absolutely flying through the lane while weaving through traffic. The extension of his stride over this Churchill surface was impressive even in defeat. I suspect he's going to like returning here, especially now that he's discovered his preferred running style and distance. Saez rides him well, taking no prisoners, and those tactics should pay off here. EAST AVENUE (#5), his rival from the Oaklawn Mile, isn't impossible either. I just don't think he's getting the lead from Nu What's New once again, and that probably compromises his chances a bit.

I'll be very interested to hear Marcus's case for TAPPAN STREET (#4) because he was the first horse I tossed. Though, I doubt he goes off as low as the 4-1 ML.

Marcus: 

First, I second everything David said regarding Baeza and Skippy. I do hold Baeza in high regard and am interested to see how he comes back and progresses through the year.  

Partially because I’m friendly with the trainer, and he was texting me optimistic reports on this horse, Nu What’s New has long been on my radar. Maybe I under-rate him: My feeling is he’s already hit his ceiling. Certainly, I’d prefer him to East Avenue, whose ceiling, at this point, we surely know.  

Three factors inform the TAPPAN STREET (#4) push: The talent he flashed as an early-season 3-year-old was real, his recent training, and the expected price. What happened this winter? Dunno. Red flags flew even in the winning comeback, best described as meh. His Pegasus proved so dreadful that I’m willing to give him another look: It’s not like he ran his race, and that race proved inadequate. Maybe David didn’t view the recent workout video as glowingly as I did. But off what I think I saw, one can envision him coming back this time the horse many expected to see in December. Getting a firsthand look at the animal this week only supported my thoughts on the work video.

Marcus and David's Late Pick-5

We combined our opinions to come up with a late Pick-5 wager, outlined below.

Race:      A         B          C
9:          2,4,6      --          7
10:         2,5        6          --
11:         5,9        --         --
12:         3,4,5,9     --         --
13:         2,10       1,9         --

Marcus: 

I feel confident saying that KATHYNMARISSA (#5) would not last year, had she the chance, won the French Oaks and the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, as GEZORA (#4) did. But inherent quality in this case butts up against intention. The “better” horse in the Modesty has serious long-term plans. Losing a Grade 3 in her season’s debut won’t keep Gezora from winning an Eclipse Award if she lands the big prizes on her schedule. Not to say she’s intended to lose – just that this race, at a distance short of her best, her first race for trainer Chad Brown, is a stepping-off point for an ambitious campaign. You can be sure Brown has plotted it all out, that the last thing he wants here is a hard race. And I’ll be honest. I didn’t really believe in Gezora when she came to the Breeders’ Cup. Thought the Prix de Diane form was flimsy, the Vermeille, too.  

I have the strong sense Kathynmarissa has been honed for this start. She’s not Gezora, but this horse is really good. Something had gone amiss with the horse when she clunked at 1-2 in the Santa Ana. Not long after, she wound up with Brown. Former trainer Rick Dutrow has done some great things in a long career; he simply doesn’t have the experience handling high-level turf mares that Chad Brown does. Thus, I expect Kathynmarissa to improve on her excellent form during her 3-year-old season, which ended in the American Oaks with one of those Dettori rides that just leaves you shaking your head. The horse that beat her after that silly trip, She Feels Pretty, became a champion.  

WHISKEY DECISION (#3) and PROCTOR STREET (#2) are close to the same horse; I like Whiskey Decision a little more at 1 1/8 miles.

David: 

Marcus and I totally agree on the relative merits of those two Chad Brown runners, GEZORA (#6) and KATHYNMARISSA (#5) – the former perhaps a touch overrated, the latter underrated. I also have some serious doubts about Gezora being able to produce her best form at 9 furlongs. All of her best form, even overseas, was accomplished over longer trips.

I almost put Kathynmarrisa on top, but am inclined to give PROCTOR STREET (#2) one more chance, especially since I suspect the prices on these two to flip-flop from the ML, with Proctor Street being the bigger price. In my view, she is clearly the horse you want out of the Hillsborough, since she got the wrong trip for a horse with her set of attributes. She's a mare who possesses one short burst and little more thereafter, so inheriting the lead with three-eighths to go was hardly ideal. Considering her profile, she fought on to the wire better than I would have expected. Tyler Gaffalione knows her well and regains the mount here while drawing perfectly inside. If we're right about Gezora not showing up with her best, I think this is a winnable race for Proctor Street.

David: 

I spent way too long considering various possibilities in this race before circling back around to land on the two favorites. FULLY SUBSCRIBED (#9) seems like the most likely winner at a short price – there's no way you're getting 7-2. Her form late in the season at Aqueduct was excellent, and she appears to be training like a beast for this return. I suppose it's a bit of a class test for her, but not much of one. Let's be honest – the race came up pretty light for a Grade 1 in this division.

The only horse I could bet trying to beat her is SHRED THE GNAR (#5) because I don't think she's going to be favored like the morning line suggests. There are too many questions surrounding her after the dismal showing at Gulfstream last time. Yet the Gulfstream surface seemed quirkier than ever this winter and some horses just threw in clunkers over it. She took hard bumps out of the gate, and never traveled well before backing up. She's clearly better than that, and I think there's a chance she rebounds here. Regular rider Luis Saez gets back aboard, and will almost certainly send her to the front. Her best race can beat Fully Subscribed, and I can't say that about anyone else in here.

Marcus: 

My first reply is – LOL. My experience unfolded, unfortunately, exactly like David’s. It feels like I spent an entire day looking at this race, only to land on FULLY SUBSCRIBED (#9).

I’m torn on guessing the prices – could see SHRED THE GNAR (#5) getting a lot of play. I left her out of my “top 3” because I feel she’ll either win or get nothing, and at the price I’m guessing, I took the latter approach. I’ve been very, very high on this filly: When she stayed on a regular work pattern over the winter, I predicted she’d wind up with an Eclipse Award this year. I found her Royal Delta concerning. First time the filly didn’t have things her way, and she had nothing to offer. Even a horse struggling with a surface will, if they are putting forth effort, merely run below form, not fall apart. This filly has been, based on her race and work patterns, fragile physically, and I wonder if that holds in the psychological realm, too. If she makes a clear lead over SNOWYTE (#10) it might not matter.  

Marcus: 

When four horses separated by less than one length come out of the same race, as we have here via the Appalachian at Keeneland – it can be a good idea to look at horses coming out of other races.

DANDONA (#9) exits the Florida Oaks, which she won with a sustained run into a modest tempo. I note the lack of pace there because there’s little of it here, too. I’m willing to live with that. Some horses do better closing into a slow pace than a fast one. Dandona, if she can work her way into the clear, has a big run. Granted, she’s kind of a lumbering beast. I can hardly believe the improvement she’s made from a painfully slow debut last summer (not just on the clock – try watching it) through the Florida Oaks. There may be more to come – right now. Third race of her form cycle, a good work pattern (no video) since her breakout race. She’ll get lost in the betting shuffle – value for me, I expect.

Whoops – in the end I wound up with three from the Appalachian. JUST ALOOF (#5) finished fourth, but, again, what really separated the first four home. Her rail-skimming trip led to traffic trouble at the quarter-pole; having to wait for room might not have cost her victory, but it might have. I want a reversion to the tactics she showed in the Jimmy Durante – get out of the gate, get up close to a slow pace. She’ll be better off with that trip in the Edgewood.

IMAGINATIONTHELADY (#3) didn’t have a great trip in the Breeders’ Cup and is supposed to be better in the Edgewood than in the Appalachian. She rallied right inside victorious Storm’s Wake at Keeneland, and that last little burst she lacked is the sort of thing a horse can find second time back from a layoff. The trainer seems to legitimately hold her in high regard. I don’t quite yet share his enthusiasm.

I’m torn. Was STORM’S WAKE’s (#1) Appalachian the culmination of incremental and non-linear improvement through the winter and spring? Or did it demonstrate that, after plenty of reps, she had put everything together, hit a new level she can sustain? Either way, she’s probably out the back door from the rail with a massive amount of traffic to navigate.

David: 

Marcus and I have some pace-related disagreements here. I thought the Florida Oaks featured a fast pace that came apart over a demanding turf course. That's how it's coded in TimeformUS, and the race flow seemed to match. So no DANDONA (#9) for me.

I also didn't view this Edgewood as a race featuring very much early pace to set things up for a closer. I know there are a few horses with tactical speed, but Junior Alvarado aboard TAM TAM (#6) rarely rides aggressively. And who knows how the tactical speed of TAKEN BY THE WIND (#12) will translate to turf?

As I mapped out the race, I came to the conclusion that LORELEI LEE (#4) would find her way to the front through moderate fractions once again, just as she did in the Bourbonette Oaks. Is that form good enough to win here? Well, I agree with Marcus that I'd hardly be scared of anyone exiting the Appalachian, and that covers most of the contenders in this field. I take it as a positive sign that Lorelei Lee's connections sacrificed the opportunity for limelight in the Kentucky Oaks to run here instead. She has plenty of turf pedigree, and looks all turf in her physicality and action. She had a trip excuse in her lone loss, and was never letting those closers by last time in the Bourbonette, even past the wire. I think she's pretty good, and she may get overlooked here.

David: 

From a thousand foot view, this Oaks has the look of a wide open affair in which the main players seem almost interchangeable, many having achieved similar speed figures and accomplishments. Yet upon closer examination, I find the contenders become easier to separate.

Even though she hasn't run particularly fast yet during her 3-year-old season, I still think ZANY (#2) is the best filly in this crop. Her two-year-old victories were achieved with such ease, that it was strange to see her showing some signs of effort when she returned as a 3-year-old. However, those struggles should benefit her on Friday. She got schooled behind horses, seemingly with intention, in the Suncoast at Tampa, a race used as nothing more than a prep. She was late with her lead change in upper stretch, ducking in as she did so, but that's always been her. She still won much more easily than the margin would suggest.

Her loss in the Ashland may have disappointed some, but the short stretch at Keeneland was always going to work against her. Now couple that configuration with a glacial pace, and defeat was all but assured. She's just not built to match strides under those circumstances with a horse possessing Percy's Bar's turn of foot. Zany still stayed on gamely to the wire, extending herself better in the late stages than she had even in the Suncoast, and she soared past Percy's Bar on the gallop-out. She should relish the added distance and longer stretch of Churchill Downs, especially with a better pace setup Even that experience schooling behind horses in the Suncoast should benefit her as she breaks from an inside post.

In my mind, Zany is fair value at 5-2 or 3-1, and she may not dip that low in a race that will be perceived as more competitive than I think it is.

It seems like Marcus and I generally agree on the other main contenders. PROM QUEEN (#10) and ALWAYS A RUNNER (#9) both looked very good in their final preps. I appreciate Prom Queen's versatility, and prefer her a bit more. Always a Runner still has some greenness to overcome, but she's well on her way. Both should appreciate the distance. EXPLORA (#1) will benefit from some speed scratching out of this race, and I don't mind the rail draw for her. She's coming off an unplanned layoff, but she's working like it won't be an issue, and she already has plenty of foundation. I just have the gut feeling that the best version of Zany is better than all three, and I think we're going to see it on Friday.

Marcus: 

Our process and conclusion converged again. I wound up in precisely the same spot as David regarding the superficially broad contentious nature of the Oaks.

I came into the exercise a ZANY (#2) guy myself – for all the reasons David outlined. I came out of it very worried about her inability to properly change leads in the homestretch. It’s a real problem, and not just because the lead change provides an energy boost – extra important in top-level racing. Watch not just Zany’s races but all the work video available and it starts to look like she is incredibly bad at this task. Even her better changes get her out of rhythm and cause her to lean in. The lugging in she’s regularly done is, to me, a completely related issue: As soon as the rider starts really trying to get her to change, she lugs in. I just kept waiting for her to improve this habit, and so far, she hasn’t. Maybe she’ll wind up in a spot turning for home where none of that matters.

I love ALWAYS A RUNNER (#9). She’s a gorgeous mover and has barely tapped into her talent. She, too, has done poorly changing leads, but unlike Zany, she finally got a smooth one in her most recent work. Still think she’s not going to get to her best on this day, and that she can’t quite win if she doesn’t.

I’ll add my two cents on PROM QUEEN (#10), a strong win pick for me. She’s already good enough, she’s going to run her best race yet based on everything I see, she has a good running style for the race, she is dead Brad Cox-level fit, and she wants every part of nine furlongs.