David: 

If POWERSHIFT (#11) can recapture the form that he displayed in his debut race at Tampa, everyone else in this field is running for second. That 96 Beyer has been validated by runbacks beyond just the Louisiana Derby score by winner Emerging Market. So what happened in the Tampa Bay Derby last time? Coming off Lasix? Asking too much too soon? He's been working down in Florida since that race as if he's suffered no ill effects. I expect him to rebound here, but he still needs to work out a trip from a pretty tough post.

If the favorite stubs his toe, BOURBON DREAM (#8) seems like a viable alternative to consider, and at the expected price he's the horse I would bet. His debut, in which he was dismissed at 52-1, seemed like a purely educational affair. And yet he still almost won the race in spite of himself and the apparent intentions. He basically took Mario Gutierrez into the race and seemed to idle a bit when he hit the front as early as he did coming off the turn. He got run down in the late stages, but I liked the way he responded to challenges from the outside once he became aware of them, and he galloped out best of all past the wire. He seems like a true two-turn type to me, and he may get underrated due to the lackluster recent stats for his connections. Though it is worth noting Fausto Gutierrez has 5-year positive ROI in DRF Formulator.

The California horses did little for me. I don't think SILENT WAY (#3) gets better with more distance, at least on dirt, and I have some doubts about the validity of the Beyer for that Memory maiden race. Winston Ave is an early scratch.

Marcus: 

I’ll add, regarding POWERSHIFT (#11), that he’s likely to go off well below the listed odds. Yet I still rate him the most likely winner to a great enough extent that I couldn’t push a particular horse to oppose him – not in this group. They waited two more weeks to run Emerging Market after that exceedingly fast Tampa maiden race, and the quicker turnaround is what I believe told on Powershift in his run-back. Work video definitely suggests he has turned things the right direction again.

BOURBON DREAM (#8), David’s pick, is the same horse I accorded the best chance to beat the favorite. I just couldn’t quite get there.  

For wagers below: (D) = David, (M) = Marcus

Marcus: 

Got some flashy Beyers in this first-level, dirt-route allowance. OUT OF THE WOODS (#1) with a 92, MEMORY (#4) with a 93, MAKE MY DAY (#6) with an 89. Love that, because I don’t like any of those horses. Beyers don’t drive the market like they once did, but they carry some weight.  

Strong opinion on TAPTASTIC (#8), 3-1 on the line, probably close to accurate. Thought he ran a brave, professional race for a first-timer, going through a fairly tight spot in mid-stretch, finishing that route race off with verve. No chance with Renegade, but otherwise not overmatched when aggressively thrown into the Arkansas Derby, and that third-place finish came with a less-than-ideal trip; he lacked room off the far turn and into upper stretch. Two work videos since he came to Churchill: Asked for nothing in an easy, maintenance half-mile on April 10, and a much stronger drill with Risen Star-winner Chip Honcho on April 25, where he was allowed to show off more of his talent.

Suspect SOVEREIGN LAW (#2) always meant to be a two-turn horse and gets his first chance to demonstrate that here. Brad Cox wins with a lot of first-timers, but with horses not quite that advanced, I have noticed he does not mind building more slowly – as with Sovereign Law. Lacked speed to keep up sprinting and went evenly – and decently - through that race before being encouraged by the jockey to launch into a strong gallop-out. Even winning over a mile last out he appeared to be looking for more ground, and I found post-win workout video quite encouraging.

LINCOLN’S LAW (#11) ran into the Cox buzzsaw (provided he goes one turn) Cannoneer stretched from a debut sprint score to a one-turn mile. Think the competition rather than the added quarter-mile proved too much for him last time, and I do think he’ll stretch out – just that post 11 n what looks like a salty race does not seem ideal.

David: 

No argument here with Marcus's take on TAPTASTIC (#8), who I do view as the horse to beat. Among that trio of maiden winners with flashy figs, I'm most skeptical of MEMORY (#4), whose number looks pretty flimsy when you dig into that field. (Perhaps we'll get some indication of it's validity when Silent Way runs in the first race.)

OUT OF THE WOODS (#1) had some trips in California, so it's not as if the last-out improvement came from nowhere. He drew well, and if they can manage to get him forward again I could see him hanging around for a while.

I am much more positive on MAKE MY DAY (#6) than Marcus seems to be. This horse clearly needed his debut when running into Derby contender Emerging Market and first race favorite Powershift. He still finished well into a slow pace after getting off slowly. I was encouraged that he was so much more professional second time out, breaking better and showing improved speed. He did veer out in the stretch, but I think that was intentional as the jockey tried to avoid standing water on the track rather than the horse being green. If he continues developing as expected, I think he can give Taptastic a challenge. And it's not as if the favorite doesn't have his some of own unprofessionalism to get over.

David: 

I spent far too long looking at this race trying to come up with a clever option to ultimately settle for logical horses. It's hard to trust PRAETOR (#12) on the win end given the way he's shortened stride and come back to his foes in the final furlong of each of his last two starts. I do think he's more of a natural sprinter, so I'd prefer to see him going a tad shorter than this. Though, I imagine that Flavien Prat has learned by now that he can't strike the front too soon, so he's likely to change up his running style and hold him up early. That may produce a better result, but you're not finding out at much of a price.

WHO DEY (#6) is a more reliable win candidate if you think he's ready off the layoff. There aren't too many reasons to doubt it. Tom Drury has good layoff stats, and the horse appears to be training well. There's speed in this race to set up his late run and he's run better at Churchill Downs than his career box tally might suggest. I could argue he deserves to be favored.

Though, perhaps there's a little more upside with JOHN HANCOCK (#5). I wasn't quite sure what to do with this horse. I can't say I was as taken with his first two victories as some others seemed to be, but he did run well in the Louisiana Derby considering how the pace collapsed. The time away is a major question, and he was a regulatory vet scratch at Keeneland a month ago, for whatever that's worth. He does appear to be training well, and he's taken a step forward from 3 to 4 he can certainly win here. The 6-1 ML price intrigues, but I wonder if we'll actually get that.

The seemingly logical horse I want to fade is VIBE (#10). It's tough to make dirt speed figures at Guflstream since they almost never card dirt races consecutively, if they're even running more than 2 or 3 on a given card. Evidence is mounting that the Beyer (and other figs) for his last race is way too generous, as a few horses have returned from that spot to regress. I have doubts about his quality.

Marcus: 

One might make a win bet on PRAETOR (#12), or, alternatively, take the money outside and set it on fire. My take is that Praetor will shorten stride regardless of distance – it’s just who he is.

I went the other way on JOHN HANCOCK (#5). I never was on his bandwagon as a 3-year-old, thought he was just average, and it’s not like he was a horse who struck me as the sort always meant to be a 4-year-old.

Here’s what I wrote before I’d read what David had to say about VIBE'S (#10) speed figures: “Actually thought Vibe’s high-Beyer comeback win last out looked rather pedestrian.” To that, however, I added that the lesser performance gave more latitude for improvement – provided Vibe has the requisite talent. Maybe he doesn’t, but I liked the way he worked with Alysheba entrant Grande.

For all the reasons David outlined, as well as encouraging breeze video, I took WHO DEY (#6), who won’t be a great price but might wind up a fair price.  

Marcus: 

I messed up the selections I made for Daily Racing Form print – selections made under time constraints last Sunday. Frankly, I missed the fact (not reported anywhere that I saw) that SPLENDORA (#5) missed her scheduled April 17 work after getting sick. Clearly not anything serious because she came back with a good-looking move April 24, but the trainer said that before that last breeze he’d considered leaving Splendora in California. 

Maybe she’s good enough and already was sufficiently race ready that the hiccup doesn’t matter. Seven furlongs is her game. She aced the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint over that trip and did so with a mighty move. Is she not going to be favored over WAYS AND MEANS (#4)?

I worried too much about the long, long layoff for Ways and Means. She has been trained, 100-percent, to win this race, not benefit from it and move forward next time. The trainer made some strong points, first of all asserting that this horse, despite some evidence to the contrary, does not like a wet track. He also said that a workout that went much faster than planned a week before the ’25 Derby City Distaff compromised her performance. Funny – I was looking for recent Kentucky workout video, didn’t notice the link I clicked was from April 2025, and wound up watching that very work. Five furlongs in 58.80 and the horse was basically running off through the homestretch. It’s been like this for Ways and Means – stop and start, some bad luck even going back to her Spinaway. She might truly be a special horse. I’m with her here.

USHA (#1) ran poorly at Keeneland last fall in her lone shipping experience. She, too, missed a work in California. HAULIN ICE coming out of this race to run on Friday benefits her stablemate R DISASTER (#6), who now looks like well-drawn, serious speed. Don’t totally trust her to carry it seven furlongs, but she probably went too fast last out at Keeneland, and the top two there ran lights out.

David: 

While I do think Marcus makes some interesting points about the work patterns on the Baffert pair, I'm more concerned about how they look in those drills than the patterns, especially when they have had such extensive worktabs between races.

And that's why I'm picking and betting USHA (#1). Having watched a lot of these horses' drills going back over the last year, I've concluded that WAYS AND MEANS (#4) and SPLENDORA (#5) are working very well, but they always do. One reason Splendora got bet down to 5-2 at the Breeders' Cup is because she was touting herself so much in the mornings. And Ways and Means is basically a run off in the AM hours.

I've never been that impressed by Usha's workouts in the past, but her drills for this race seem different. She annihilated a decent workmate in that 58 1/5 drill on Apr. 5 and her more recent Apr. 24 drill alleviated any concerns I might have about her missing a week.

It is a concern that she didn't run well in prior Kentucky start, but she didn't get away to a very good start that day and was forced to make this early move through traffic before coming up empty. She should have a more comfortable trip coming here in a smaller field. Juan Hernandez figures to hold her up early and unleash that same move past the quarter pole that carried her to victory in the La Brea.

David: 

This is basically just a trip handicapping exercise of the Shakertown at Keeneland, as all of the main players exit that same race.

Winner MY BOY PRINCE (#3) got a perfect trip and is the one to downgrade. I don't dispute that he's in great form right now since turning back, but last time was the opportunity to get a price on him.

LITIGATION (#9) covered more ground, going 3 to 4-wide on the turn. I still wanted to see him produce a more potent kick through the lane, making me wonder if he was a horse that just really took to that specialized 5-furlong trip at Gulfstream. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz could also make him an underlay.

YELLOW CARD (#7) probably had the worst trip in terms of getting in trouble, as he steadied pretty significantly on the backstretch before getting pushed out wide in the lane. He finished well and can obviously win here if Prat can work out a clean trip. I have him in the mix.

JOE SHIESTY (#10) didn't have obvious trouble, but he was racing somewhat against the flow. The race was starting to fall apart at the end, and he was the one fighting it out on the front end. His pace rival from that race, Usually Wrong, hounded him every step of the way before fading to last. Notably that rival isn't entered back here, and there really isn't any true speed than go with Joe Shiesty early. He's also drawn ideally outside for a horse who sometimes has gate issues. That combination of factors makes him the bet.

Marcus: 

I could leave it at “yup,” really.  

I loved JOE SHIESTY (#10) in the Shakertown. Maybe the race flow was against him. Maybe he’d run too fast at Turfway in his last start. I struggle to trust the horse, but he’ll be the right price.  

Marcus: 

TOUR PLAYER (#6) loves Churchill, excels in one-turn races between seven furlongs in a mile, comes to this restricted stakes in good form, has worked well since his last race, and is lined up for a very favorable trip – but is he good enough? That’s the central question, and I think the answer is “yes.” We’ll see if overmatched BERNIN HOT (#8) (although calling anything coming out of this barn right now “overmatched” feels perilous) can even muster speed to keep up, but other than him, DRAGOON GUARD (#2) is the only other obvious pace. Tour Player didn’t just beat him at Colonial last out, his superiority was greater than the margin of victory: He rolled past Dragoon Guard, opened up three lengths, and thought his job was done.

I’d like to pair Tour Player up with the two outside horses, MOONLIGHT (#11) and CAPITAL IDEA (#10), though both need pace help that might be in short supply. Tried to talk myself into Moonlight carrying his strong one-turn mile form into two-turn Fair Grounds dirt stakes – that didn’t work. The horse hits his peak in Churchill one-turn miles. Would I have liked to see a little more from the work video available? Yes, but I matched it up with breeze video from spring 2025 and didn’t see an appreciable difference.

I’m not a big Grande guy, but he probably rates as a graded-stakes level horse of some stripe. Capital Idea tried to make a run at him March 29 at Gulfstream, but Grande had dictated a slow pace and had too much in the tank. Doubt Capital Idea came to the first start of this form cycle close to his best, and in any case the horse who beat him at Tampa, Pentathalon, returned to win a Gulfstream stakes race. Like this horse cutting back to one turn.

David: 

I didn't have a strong feel for this race. Marcus might recall that we had a discussion a few months ago about my belief that MOONLIGHT (#11) is just a different horse at Churchill Downs. I suppose that will get proven or disproven here, as he's supposed to excel in this kind of race. He's a natural miler, and he's getting back on his favorite surface in a race with some pace. The non-effort last time is a concern, but it will also help inflate his price.

I'm not going to dispute anything Marcus had to say here because I just don't have a particularly strong feel for this race beyond the top pick. I even found myself considering longshot BANJO CHRIS (#3) given my general distrust of the favorites here. It's not the craziest price to throw into the mix, since he has run some nice races at Churchill and he was hardly disgraced behind a couple of today's more logical contenders in the Cherokee Mile last year. I actually think this distance works well for him and he rarely is given the chance to try it.

David: 

SWEET REBECCA (#2) can't really be favored here, can she? Gosh, I hope she is! I wouldn't want any part of her in this spot. Not only has she done her best work at Gulfstream, but she's required perfect trips to produce recent form that I don't believe even makes her good enough to hit the board here.

PIN UP BETTY (#8) seems like the one to beat. She could have drawn better, but she loves this turf course and has generally held her own against tougher company than she faces here. She was also returning from a layoff last time, and you would imagine the connections were viewing that as somewhat of a prep for this return to Churchill.

If I had to guess at who will go favored, I would say PORTFOLIO DURATION (#3). That might seem crazy for a horse coming off an N1X win, but bettors go crazy for horses with this profile from the Chad Brown barn. And, to be clear, I think much of that support would be deserved. This filly has given the vibe that she's graded stakes quality in those last two wins. I just don't think I'd want to bet her at 5-2 or 3-1.

The horse I want to bet is ITALIAN SOIREE (#1). I know she looks like a turf sprinter at first glance, but I urge you to reassess her past turf routes. There was nothing wrong with her G1 Natalma fourth-place finish as a 2-year-old behind the likes of And One More Time and Nitrogen. She then lost the Jessamine, but it's worth going back to watch her trip that day. She was parked legitimately 4 to 5-wide on both turns. I could easily argue that she was best that day against a pretty good field. She only tried routing once more, getting completely steadied out at the 5/16ths pole in the Memories of Silver. Now consider her last race. She really turned things around with this trainer switch to Graham Motion, displaying a turn of foot that we hadn't previously seen out of her. I don't usually love stretch-outs like this, but Graham Motion does great with this move. He is 28 for 108 (26%, $2.31 ROI) going from sprints to routes on turf over 5 years, including 7 for 23 (30%, $2.64 ROI) in stakes races. Couple that with her better-than-looks past route form, and I think we've found a sneaky contender.

Marcus: 

No, David, Sweet Rebecca can’t be favored here. Nor do I want any part of her.

I will say, regarding PIN UP BETTY (#8), that it’s possible the person training the horse wanted to bring her to this race fresh, as he did last year, but might have been overruled by another person. That’s no deal-breaker but Pin Up Betty ultimately always has wanted at least 1 1/16 miles and gets out-quicked at this mile trip, a characteristic that might become more pronounced with age.

Hoping that David’s guess on the PORTFOLIO DURATION (#3) price is a little too aggressive; fear it’s not. I didn’t see as much in some of the others and saw quite a lot from this filly. She’s set for a large step forward, but I can’t strongly advocate playing a horse who’s negative value.

Reflecting the nature of this race, two so far not mentioned made it into my top choices.

TEMPTABLE (#4) was from a star in France but did steadily improve through an active 3-year-old campaign, and the way she has learned to utilize her speed – relaxed, in hand, capable of producing a burst – suggested a filly still on the rise. If she wants to race close, then her trip at Del Mar surely compromised her. Post 11 with a short run to the turn on a tight track – the filly probably doesn’t have the speed to clear, and no attempt was made to do so. Good options never arose through the first three-quarters, but don’t judge her by the seventh-place finish alone – Temptable finished with good energy. Is this group any tougher than that one? No work video, unfortunately, from all the Payson drills, but the trainer did tell me that she works so well on dirt, one might even imagine her racing over it. I want her to jump out forwardly and sit just off the pace.

CLASSIC Q (#5) can prove tough to pass when allowed to dictate tempo: Even the excellent Lush Lips had to work to reel her in. She’s such a narrow-framed horse – I like her coming in fresh.

Marcus: 

I think David and I agree that the 3-1 morning-line price on ENGLISHMAN (#1) is far too high. It’s not just all the “1s” that appear in his two races, but this horse has a following, works flashily, and really might be a budding star. This is the race we’ll find out about that. Drawn on the rail against much stronger competition than he’s faced, Englishman gets the acid test. Probably I should cast a colder eye: He’s getting heavily bet, speed to his outside might be as fast as he, and any sort of slow break and he’s probably finished. And yet. As fast as this horse ran at Fair Grounds, he appeared barely to get out of a gallop; the jockey asked for nothing. He has continued working along in the same vein, a horse with brilliant speed who is not overly aggressive, who looks like a miler as much as a sprinter. This race has been the goal all winter and I’ll guess Englishman does something special.

If Englishman wins and CRUDE VELOCITY (#6) runs second you can walk up to the betting window and collect your $6.40 exacta. Don’t believe Crude Velocity will go favored over Englishman; do believe he’ll wind up a heavily bet second choice. Hey – I have no knocks. Considering his trip, he shouldn’t have won first time out, and whether through the experience of that race or Baffert taking blinkers off, his second start came off far smoother. He’s supposed to get a better trip than Englishman – I just don’t think he’s as good.

I suppose, given his wide trip in the Robert Lewis, and the Derby fever that pervades the land, they had to give SECURED FREEDOM (#4) a second chance in a route race. Predictably, he did not run especially well and now gets back to doing what he prefers – racing around one turn. I liked the horse in the San Felipe because he’d shown some stretch spark in his debut and won well second out, albeit with a favorable setup. Don’t think he has a ton of upside, but there are a lot of horses in this race that just don’t look especially competitive.

CROWN THE BUCKEYE (#7) even if he can’t stay with Englishman has an outside draw and can at least fall into a clean stalking trip that might get him a piece. He was out of his element, even more so than Secured Freedom, trying to route in races not restricted to Ohio-breds.

David: 

I have little to add here. The one piece of information I would tack on to Marcus's analysis of CRUDE VELOCITY (#6) is that he's a bad gate horse. He's broken slowly in both starts, and that has to be a mild worry as he's drawn in the middle of a large field.

ENGLISHMAN (#1), on the other hand, has been excellent from the gate and is naturally faster than anyone else in here, so the rail draw is not much of a factor for me. I also tend to think that he's simply the best horse. Looking forward to watching this race, but have little interest in betting it.

David: 

I'll try to keep this one as brief as possible because it would be too easy to ramble on and on about how many viable options there are. I respect both likely favorites, STARK CONTRAST (#4) and REMEMBER MAMBA (#12), and do view them as the most likely winners of this race. If I had to pick one over the other, it would be Remember Mamba, who seemingly has a bit more upside. I will have more confidence in him down the line when he eventually gets stretched out over longer trips than this 1 1/16 miles, but he can obviously still win this race.

I'll highlight two price possibilities to throw into multi-race sequences and exotic wagers. One of those is BLACK HORNET (#6), who unleashed a spectacular turn of foot in both turf wins at Fair Grounds this winter. I don't know was going on in the Jeff Ruby Steaks last time, but both the plan executed by the jockey and the horse's behavior lugging out on the far turn left me scratching my head. He's clearly better than that, and should fare better here if this rider can get him covered up early.

The horse I'll make a stronger push for as my top pick is LET'S BE FRANK (#2). I'm not going to pretend he's some likely winner of this race, but he is a lot more talented than his 30-1 ML might suggest. Watching the replays of his first two starts, it becomes apparent that he had no clue what he was doing out there, but he still showed terrific finishing speed while drifting all over the track. He clearly wasn't quite ready for the Breeders' Cup, but the connections pressed on anyway. He traveled with run throughout, but was completely stymied in traffic for the entire stretch drive. Nothing learned. He returned for a new barn at Santa Anita and lost a maiden race, which sounds disappointing at first assessment. Yet the horse that beat him is a pretty talented 4-year-old who came right back to win again with an other 86 Beyer. Perhaps he's once again trying a Grade 1 before he's truly ready for the limelight, but drawing inside is pretty good fortune for a horse who has a tendency to lug in like he does. Manny Franco and his powerful left arm seem like a good fit for this horse. At the expected odds, I'll overlook the concerns.

Marcus: 

Great analysis by David. I considered Let’s Be Frank, didn’t see as much in him, and have nothing to add to the remainder of David’s thoughts. Exactly the same feelings regarding not only Stark Contrast and Remember Mamba, but Black Hornet as well.

Marcus: 

It’s funny how getting in an actual race can change the way a horse looks. Maybe KNIGHTSBRIDGE (#6) really will become the dominant miler in the land, but plunk him down in this field, scrutinize the form a little more deeply, and the perspective changes. Namely, I don’t think Knightsbridge is invulnerable. I can’t emphasize enough the step up in class Knightsbridge takes here. And getting good trips over a suitable racing surface while facing inferior competition can make a very high-quality, in-form horse look even better than he is. That’s the approach I take here.

When he made it back to the races in January, I looked at DISRUPTOR (#5) as just another flashy Todd Pletcher-trained Florida maiden winner who would probably never fulfill the promise at which a single performance hinted. That’s the wrong category. Disruptor now looks like a serious horse. His easy comeback win at least validated the maiden score, and while DISCO TIME (#1) might not be the horse some thought he was after winning the St. Louis Derby (!) and the Dwyer (!), he’s pretty damned fast (and in a very tough spot here drawn on the rail). Disruptor toyed with him in the Challenger, and I like Disruptor even more at this one-turn, seven-furlong configuration than that two-turn middle distance. Have to admit I grew quite rapturous watching Disruptor’s solo drill April 16 at Palm Beach Downs. He was amazing from start to finish, and the finish came a long way down the backstretch. Great chance to outrun those odds – if the line proves accurate.

Odds that I can’t imagine getting: 30-1 on T O ELVIS (#8). He’s right there with Disruptor for me – I could’ve gone either way. This horse looks so good. We’ll see how he handles his first international competition, but if he brings his “A” game, he absolutely can win. Does so many things well: Navigate traffic, switch on and off for his rider, and when let loose, what a finish T O Elvis possesses. He probably won’t be 30-1 but in this field he’s likely to slip through the cracks, and I’d have to use him prominently.

IMAGINATION (#7) probably better now than when he last tried seven-furlongs in the Malibu – though perhaps he’s one of those late-running sprinters who prefers six furlongs. The remarkable Banishing just keeps on ticking. He had an extremely ambitious 12-start 2025 campaign, got smacked around in the Saudi Cup, and came right back to win a million-dollar race in Dubai. I’m going to be surprised if he runs as well as he did in this race’s 2025 renewal.

David: 

Seems like Marcus and I came to similar conclusions regarding KNIGHTSBRIDGE (#6). I think he's beatable here as well. This is a far tougher spot than he's encountered since his return last fall, and I also wonder if we'll continue to see him ascending after reaching such heights at Gulfstream. After all, let's not forget he was a horse that couldn't string two races together without a layoff for much of his career.

I think a lot of horses can win this race, so I won't argue with Marcus's favorable view of the Challenger too much. I would just add that I am unmoved by DISRUPTOR'S (#5) recent workouts because he has always looked like that in the mornings. His drills prior to the Florida Derby last year were outstanding (hence his 3-1 price) and he wasn't up to that challenge either. Maybe it will be different now.

I'm more positive on IMAGINATION (#7) than Marcus. To me, he's just really put things together since they've finally turned him back in distance for good. He was so much the best with a tough trip in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint last time, though the recent international travel has to weigh on the mind to some degree.

I'm quite positive on T O ELVIS (#8) here. No, you can't be totally sure what kind of competition he was beating over in Japan, but he sure gives the impression of a world-class sprinter when you watch those replays. I did notice that a couple of horses who finished behind him in the Capella returned in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint this year, and one of them was a decent sixth, so it’s not as if he's beaten allowance horses. The finishing speed that he has displayed in his last couple of starts is breathtaking. JRA data has him coming home his final three-eighths in 34.8 seconds in that Capella win – closing speed rarely seen in a dirt race. The outside draw should suit him, and Sakai at least has some experience riding in this country. Let's also not forget that this trainer, known for his Derby starters, also sent out the inferior T O Saint Denis to run an improbable-looking second in the Alysheba a few seasons ago.

One other longshot that I want to offer up for consideration (a true 30-1 shot, if not greater) is MACHO MUSIC (#3). Before you start laughing, remember that he won the Pat Day Mile over this strip last year, running far above any of his prior form. I had loved the way he was working for his return in the Army Mule last time, but he never got to show his improvement when the trip failed to work out. A horse stumbled into his path at the start, and he then got steadied on the backstretch. It was a nightmare. He's much faster than that when he's not hampered at the start, and I suspect he'll lead this field a long way – it's not as if there are a ton of need-the-lead types in here. A win by him might be stretching it, but I'll throw him on some exotic and multi-race tickets.

David: 

My primary opinion on this race is that I want to fade RHETORICAL (#6) on the win end. I won't be the least bit surprised when he's somewhere in the mix late, but I don't want to take a short price on this favorite. His late 2025 form was excellent, but I thought his return effort in the Maker's Mark was pretty disappointing. Sure, Irad Ortiz made a tactical error not securing the early lead from the eventual winner, but Rhetorical still got his trip and just seemed to lack the spark we had seen from him last year. Perhaps acting up in the gate prior to the start had something to do with the dull effort, but I don't want to make too many speculative excuses for a favorite.

Between the two Chad Brown runners, I much prefer ASBURY PARK (#3). I think this horse has real talent and can develop into a nice marathon runner later this season. I'm just not sure this is the spot for him to shine. He lacks any early speed whatsoever, and there isn't exactly a ton of pace in this race. Furthermore, the fact that Flavien Prat lands here will basically guarantee that the prices on these two Brown runners are flip-flopped from the ML.

I have few knocks against TEST SCORE (#9), who I view as a logical contender. He has the tactical speed to overcome any lack of pace, and he's a specialist at this distance, which isn't true for everyone in this field. Plus, his consistency just makes him a reliable option to show up on the day. The draw could be better, but that's a minor consideration.

Speaking of the pace, how will it play out? Irad seems reticent to ever go to the lead, and hasn't ridden Rhetorical with intention to go to the front. Mercante was once a forward horse, but seems to have lost some of his early zip recently.

I think CORRUPTION (#1) finds himself in front, and I believe that makes him a threat to wire this field. John Velazquez is the jockey most likely to show intention to go forward, especially from this post, and we know he can be very dangerous on a frontrunner. Sure, Corruption is probably best going a little longer than this, but remember that he was hardly disgraced in last year's Manhattan over this distance. That was a tougher field than this one, and he got the wrong trip, steadied early and hung wide over a rail-biased course. He ran one of his best ever races off the layoff last time, and he's been a horse who has improved through racing in the past. I expect him to lead this group for a long way and possibly take them gate to wire at a very generous price.

Marcus: 

My take on RHETORICAL'S (#6) last start: He just raced too fresh! The rider wanted him covered up and Rhetorical really didn’t enjoy the pocket-trip experience, pulling too hard all the way into the far turn, never relaxing. Tight quarters when coming off the rail for his stretch run, he brushed, and after changing leads on cue in upper stretch, he briefly switched to the wrong one getting into the clear. He’s the highest-level horse in the race. Can he get nine furlongs? Probably. Sits third behind Mercante. Strong opinion? Not at all.

MERCANTE (#5) isn’t realty “fast” even though he’s a forward horse. He’d been fine from the gate – until he wasn’t in the starts the second part of last year where he didn’t show pace. Broke at least okay in the Kentucky Cup and might have gone alongside the leader had the rider, who proceeded to screw things up later, hadn’t reined him in. I think he presses Corruption and I like him better at nine furlongs than that horse.

Marcus: 

CHIEF WALLABEE (#12) I’m afraid has increasingly grown into this week’s talking horse, and his price likely reflects that. My first thought watching the Florida Derby – Chief didn’t want to split horses in mid-stretch, lost a little focus. Will blinkers correct that? Or is the bigger issue that a lightly raced horse still on a learning curve is trying to win the Derby? The blinkers already have corrected one thing: Chief W, every work, used to cock his head to the right through the homestretch. From what I’ve seen, that tendency is gone. Everyone saw his strong work over the track as well as all his great gallops. He’s a lovely horse, gorgeous mover, and so forth. We’ll just have to see if he can take that next step.

Fear that EMERGING MARKET (#15), like Chief Wallabee, will get bet below his morning line. You’re not hearing a lot of buzz for PAVLOVIAN (#16), and Emerging Market had to lay it down to get past him in the Louisiana Derby, but keep in mind that Emerging Market in his second start went from a 1 1/16-mile maiden race to a 1 3/16-mile Grade 2. He’s going to be a better horse than that, and it could easily happen in the Derby, toward which he has been training very forwardly.

Chief Wallabee has the pace to slip into a decent spot in the second flight. Emerging Market might need more luck.

FURTHER ADO (#18) has not worked like a horse about to bounce off a peak performance; often that doesn’t manifest itself until an actual race. I rate GOLDEN TEMPO (#19) higher than many (his poor start last time – not his fault), but the colt is dealing with cracked heels. Don’t like it. Also didn’t like the Arkansas Derby and find RENEGADE (#1), clearly talented, overvalued here. He might be able to get lucky from Post 1, but I’m just not sure he’s as good as a few others. COMMANDMENT (#6) has been acting studdish and unruly – he might have the best foundation in the race (other than Pavlovian), but I’m guessing he peaked in Florida. DANON BOURBON (#7) has not looked like Forever Young, but he has pace and appears to be a strong galloper with a chance to stay.

David: 

Obviously, Marcus and I landed in very different places. Generally, Marcus seems to be focusing on a different set of factors than I used to handicap this Derby, which isn't to say he's focusing on the wrong things. I just try to keep the whole conversation about Derby week vibes out of my handicapping unless I'm noticing major changes from what I've previously observed with these horses. Then again, our divergent focuses probably explain why we have 4 completely different horses in our selections. That's not a bad thing!

To briefly comment on Marcus's pick, I personally don't get the whole 'lack of focus' narrative around CHIEF WALLABEE (#12). To my eye, he lost without apparent excuses in his preps. He can obviously win and I'd rank among the 5 or 6 runners mostly likely to pull off the victory, but he's not for me at the expected price.

I'm on COMMANDMENT (#6). I've been on Commandment for a long time, and nothing I've seen from the prep season, and especially not from these weeks leading up to the Derby, shakes that opinion. Not even this game of musical jockeys. Commandment is a bull of a horse, and he showed it right from the start in that maiden win at Churchill where he pushed aside two rivals to make room for himself where that was none. He also has that rare ability to maintain his high stride frequency deep into his races, and that's going to serve him well as he navigates one additional furlong in this Derby.

RENEGADE (#1) is similar in that sense. He finishes with terrific energy in his races, striding to the wire with the late kick of a turf horse. The rail draw isn't a major worry for me. Rather, I don't love that he's taken such a soft path to get here, having beaten weaker fields and caught the only serious rival he faced along the way, The Puma, at a time when he wasn't quite ready for the challenge. Not thrilled with the amount of early money that SO HAPPY (#8) is taking based on name and storyline, but I expect him to drift up through the day on Saturday. He earned one of the fastest speed figures in this field in the Santa Anita Derby and he's undefeated utilizing the stalk and pounce tactics they're sure to execute in the Derby.

One longshot that I want to work into my wagers, primarily underneath in exotics, is WONDER DEAN (#10). His Japanese counterpart Danon Bourbon is likely to attract more support, but this horse has more relevant experience navigating traffic in large fields over in Japan, and that should serve him well at Churchill Downs. He is one of the most convincing candidates to relish the 10-furlong distance based both on pedigree and prior performances, and he picks up a jockey, Ryusei Sakai, who nearly won this race on Forever Young.

David: 

For those licking their wounds after the Derby and still looking for action, I've got something for you! I think HEARTILY (#2) has a big chance to upset this penultimate Derby Day race. He dazzled on debut at Keeneland last fall and has been terrible since, I know. But one of those losses was on synthetic, making it easy to excuse, and both performances were followed by layoffs. He now returns as a new gelding taking blinkers off. He's been working very nicely for this return, and I see him as the main speed from the inside. It also doesn't hurt that Wesley Ward has won with 50% of his dirt starters over the last month.

The favorites are fine. Though BUETANE (#10) has panned out to be nothing special and I'm not convinced the turnback is going to be some major difference maker. GILDED BANDIT (#8) seems fairly legitimate but I don't really want to take a short price on a horse stepping up against winners for the first time.

Marcus: 

I like Buetane even less than David, and in addition to the step-up for Gilded Bandit at a short price, he’s back on relatively short rest after a fast, apparently hard race.

Here’s my guess at the salve for Derby wounds:

SMALL TOWN’s (#1) pedigree leans synthetic / turf, but I’m hoping he’s a dirt horse in waiting. Encouraging debut win, didn’t stay two turns second out, and last time, in stakes company, he got into chase mode throughout behind the speedy Outfielder. Moreover, to my eye, he struggled getting hold of the Tapeta when trying to close ground. I am guessing there’s sufficient inherent talent he could make a mark. Two work videos going in company with graded-stakes horse Stark Contrast. The first of them, he’s on the inside, and while he got outworked, I’m pretty sure that breeze was designed for Stark Contrast, and that ST wasn’t asked for all that much. In the second of them, ST goes outside Stark Contrast and works heads up with him, and in both drills, he moves like he’s totally comfortable on dirt.

Marcus: 

Against those with experience, for the firsters in the nightcap.

My take on the Baffert-trained 3-year-old French Blue fell far from the target Friday, but I’m going back to the SoCal workout well with BIG JAKE (#9). Not just a recent work where he went heads up, or better, with graded-stakes horse Desert Gate, but the whole of the workout video suggests this horse is primed to race competitively first out.

One of the better breezes I watched came from SLEEPING WARRIOR (#4) when he went from the gate on April 16. BOYLSTON (#1) also has flashed ability, perhaps not enough to win from the rail on debut.

David: 

I have little interest in betting this one, and that's what this exercise I really about. I put INTERROGATOR (#3) on top because I like his workouts best of these and Steve Asmussen tends to unveil some good ones on these big days. But for me this was just guessing among a bunch of well-bred newcomers.