Marcus's Analysis: 

Not a very inspiring start to Derby Day (first post 7:30 a.m. in California). 

Brad Cox generally has been pretty candid talking about his first-time starters. I asked him the other day about #2 Pure Force, and Cox said he was “all right.” Thought he seemed better than that, but going back over the recent workout video available, I might have gotten a little carried away when doing my analysis last Sunday for DRF’s print edition. His works in company at Keeneland are just solid, I guess, but I did like the colt’s solo drill April 21 at Churchill: Finished well and looked more polished than he did six weeks ago. The lone sibling to race, Arrobatic, wound up a turf horse but won his debut dirt sprinting.  

I focused on Pure Force because there doesn’t seem to be a lot to this maiden sprint, with a couple exceptions.  

First, #1 Evan on Earth would be my top pick if I had a second shot at rating them. He was “all right” debuting last fall in a race won by Derby starter Mystik Dan (this barn doesn’t win with many first timers), and ran creditably Dec. 30 at Fair Grounds, battling on the lead with Doncho, who disappointed in the Lafayette at Keeneland but was tearing it up in New Orleans. This horse’s April 18 work, inside established stakes sprinter Bango, looked better than anything Pure Force has put forth.  

Only three others seemed at all plausible, and #3 Top Gun Rocket’s work wasn’t strong enough to compensate for the lousy recent form since his debut. And if I’m siding with a horse who raced at Fair Grounds, Evan on Earth has displayed considerably more promise than #6 House United, who has yet to do anything noteworthy.  

The unknown quantity is #7 Culprit, who ought to be a meaningfully higher price than the 7-2 morning line. He brings speed to his dirt debut for a barn in tremendous form, but since David took this horse on top, I’ll let him expound upon Culprit’s potential. 

David's Response: 

I won’t be surprised if #2 Pure Force runs well. His workouts do look solid for this level, but I was somewhat curious about the placement given his turf-oriented pedigree. I also agree that #1 Evan On Earth is probably the one to beat among the horses with experience.

I just wanted to get a little more clever with #7 Culprit, who I am hoping drifts up from that 7-2 ML. He really doesn’t have much of a turf pedigree, but I’m not reading too much into the fact that Ward started him on turf last year – he’s always searching for turf sprinters – and we’ve seen types like this ultimately transition to dirt for him. DRF Formulator confirms that impression. Over 5 years, Ward is 9 for 22 (41%, $2.75 ROI) going turf to dirt in maiden special weight events. To my eye, this horse did not look at all comfortable striding over the turf last year. He’s since worked much more fluidly on the dirt for this return and I suspect he's a lot better than his performances last year suggest.

David's Analysis: 

There are plenty of fantastic wagering races on this card. This just isn’t one of them unless you’re trying to beat heavy favorite #6 Scylla, which I am not. This just doesn’t feel like a spot to get too creative, since she just towers over this field. It is a little surprising that Mott is wheeling her back just two weeks after the Doubledogdare, but I’m not going to read too much into it.

The only other horse I could reasonably consider is #8 Coppa Girl, who had a valid excuse last time when she completely botched the start, spotting the field many lengths. That’s not something she had done in any of her recent races, so I won’t read too much into it. The only problem is that even her best race doesn’t quite measure up to what Scylla has been producing.

Marcus's Response: 

Indeed, it was the short turnaround that took me back slightly with Scylla, and if another horse of anything approaching comparable capability lined up against her, that might be a reasonable option. There’s not, and I’m sitting this one out. Coppa Girl to me has zero upside and hit her peak in two 1 1/8-mile two-turn races – she might be more overbet as the second choice than Scylla as the favorite, and the only thought I had was trying to run her out of second. #10 Secret Statement has a work pattern with no holes coming back from a winter break and her peak last fall at Churchill, should she approach it, gives her a chance to get into the exacta. #11 Victorious got cooked on a hot pace in her career debut, her lone dirt start, and is well drawn on the outside to dole out her speed. 

Marcus's Analysis: 

The morning-line price on #11 Mindframe, 2-1, is set absurdly high. This horse was 11-10 facing 10 in his debut, won by a half-furlong, and has continued working very well for big-name connections. Even facing some capable competition, he looks more like even-money. 

I see three alternatives to the favorite: His stablemate #9 Invigorated, #3 Elephants Ear, and #2 Cornishman. (#1 Cartucho has the superficial look of a sneaky player; we can talk about what Mindframe beat, but Cartucho’s foes at Tampa were laughably slow. The morning-line has him set at a lower price than Invigorated - crazy.) 

Cornishman has the least appeal among the three I mentioned. I think the barn, not just me, expected him to improve more than he did this year, and usually, it doesn’t take long for Brad Cox-trained horses to make manifest their ability. His recent works don’t do much for me, and I don’t expect this horse to run much better than his last two starts. 

Elephants Ear has more room to improve. His debut in a Fair Grounds route was useful, though Cornishman beat him that day. At Keeneland, Elephants Ear coming off the first turn was set to get a perfect trip sitting in the pocket, but the pace presser came in on the inside pace setter, whose jockey steadied, which in turn forced Elephants Ear’s rider to steady, and suddenly the colt was five wide and several lengths behind a slow pace. Closing into a slow-paced route while losing so much ground is a recipe for defeat at Keeneland, but Elephants Ear nipped the pacesetter and was a couple lengths better than Batten, who aired in a 1 ¼-mile Churchill maiden, albeit with little to challenge him. One caveat: The half-mile Churchill work April 20 was far from impressive.  

So, the two Pletchers. Invigorated might have taken his connections somewhat by surprise: The fact Pletcher debuted him in a route tells you he wasn’t knocking anyone’s socks off in the morning, and this colt’s brothers and sisters – there are some good ones – are turf horses. Successful long, sustained runs are as hard to produce at Gulfstream as Keeneland, but Invigorated kept coming and managed to win his debut, and the horses behind him are light years better than the fluff Mindframe crushed.  

That said, the physical qualities of these two horses diverge: Mindframe looks far more mature, works better, has a presence Invigorated lacks, and he probably is more naturally gifted. His sire gets route horses and Mindframe looks like he’ll run two turns, but the immediate family lacks stamina. At such short odds, facing other winners for the first time, and going sprint to route with a bad post, Mindframe is a horse you’re supposed to beat. In fact, I almost wonder what I was thinking when I sided with him last weekend. 

David's Response: 

I wonder if the connections of #11 Mindframe are regretting not just taking a shot at the Pat Day Mile. That race is a little tougher than this one, but not that by that much.

The longer I thought about this race, I ended up landing where Marcus seems to now, going against his original pick of the favorite. Mindframe did display serious talent on debut. Not only is he a robust physical specimen, his stride is absolutely massive. However, I was a little bothered by his last workout video available on April 19. To my eye, he was being asked more than Antiquarian to finish up, especially on the gallop-out, which is the most important part of Pletcher team drills – and while Antiquarian is a nice horse, he doesn’t carry the weight of expectations that this colt does. I also think it’s very strange that both of these Repole runners would be entered in the same race. The more I dug in, the more skeptical I became of this heavy favorite.

Everything Marcus says about #9 Invigorated is true. He’s not as flashy in the mornings, but unlike Mindframe, he has been galloping out very strongly, and we saw that quality in his debut. He is just relentless when put to pressure. Horses don’t win 1 1/16-mile races in that fashion at Gulfstream, getting shuffled back and having to alter widest, especially in races without much pace. Though accomplished in a different manner, I was just as impressive by him as I was by his stablemate. Invigorated is going to be a better price, and I could argue he’s actually the horse with greater upside.

Marcus covered the others well. Taking a stance against the favorite, I moved #2 Cornishman up to second in my picks, upgrading him primarily due to the post position. He has the early speed to take advantage of this draw and get the best trip of the main players.

Marcus's Pick-5: Marcus uses the ABC method to craft a Pick-5 wager starting in Race. (Total wagers at base value: $75)

Races: A / B / C
R3: 9,11 / -- / --
R4: 11 / 2 / --
R5: 3,4,10 / 5,8,14 / --
R6: 10 / 3 / 8,9
R7: 3,11 / 12 / 2,6,7

David's Analysis: 

I spent quite a bit of time searching for a clever angle in this Knicks Go and came up with nothing. Putting #6 Best Actor on top is a sign that eventually I gave up, and will am not really interested in getting too involved through this race. I’m not going to put up a particularly strong defense of this favorite, who figures to be a very short price for popular connections. He just has run a slew of races that make him faster than these and I actually think turning back the one-turn mile benefits him.

I got closest to making #7 Kupuna the alternative, but he got such a great trip to win at Evangeline last time and his prior form leaves a little to be desired. He has run some big races at Churchill in the past, nearly winning this stakes last year, but that form has eluded him lately. If you’re committed to betting this race and are looking for a goofy horse to throw in, consider #9 U. S. Army. He will need to rate, but he has done so on occasion, and Joel Rosario seems like a good fit for a horse who appears to be improving into his 4-year-old season. I’m not overly confident, but he figures to be a square price.

Marcus's Response: 

While I agree that Best Actor will prefer this one-turn mile to his pair of two-turn Fair Grounds starts, I  think he’s a vulnerable favorite. The horse is 5 and almost certainly has hit his peak, and at this point in his career, there’s little evidence he’s comfortable racing anywhere but on or just off the pace. That’s a problem since several of his rivals want to go forward, too, and have enough speed to pressure Best Actor. 

I’m pretty high on #11 Oscar Eclipse, a 4-year-old with only seven starts, just five on dirt, leaving him ample latitude for improvement – which I expect him to show in his second start this season. The Sir Shackleton, his long layoff comeback, ought to have served as a useful bridge to a stronger showing in the Knicks Go – he ran hard enough to win, but I didn’t get the sense the horse was all out the final furlong. Finally, I thought he put in an excellent work with graded-stakes class Tumbarumba on April 27. 

No fan of #2 Denington, a horse with listed-stakes upside who only could contend in a race like this if the pace collapsed – it might, and his top performance during a very, very busy 2023, on the Beyers, at least, came in a Churchill one-turn mile. 

Marcus's Analysis: 

#7 Our Shot isn’t running, so, for what it’s worth, #15 Axthelm, if not others, will draw in.  

I am not going to attack this race: In fact, I feel attacked by it. Forecasting, for starters, gets tricky with a 14-horse field going around a tight turn in a 5 ½-furlong contest. Moreover, this race lacks true high-level turf sprint speed: Yes, some horses want to go forward (#3 Coppola, #5 Mo Stash, #9 Bad Beat Brian, #11 Mister Mmmmm look like the main ones, with Coppola perhaps the fastest), but there are no true burners. This could produce different outcomes. Everyone with speed feels like they’re the real pace and fractions wind up fast and contested. Or, the race is run at a more moderate tempo, which is going to make things especially messy.  

If you are playing a deep closer, and potential favorite #10 Big Invasion is such a horse, you are just hoping as much as anything for luck, and in such circumstances, don’t you want a longer price? You’re not getting one on Big Invasion or #8 Mischief Magic. 

I tepidly sided with #4 Motorious because he has the quality to win and enough pace to take up a position in the second flight. I’m not sure what happened to him in the BC Turf Sprint (where Big Invasion got a great run up the rail, following the winner), but Motorious struggled to hold his spot on a couple occasions during the middle stages. I didn’t feel like he ever got into a natural rhythm, which contributed to his getting stuck in a bad spot turning for home, though, once free, he did finish with interest. Working April 28 (without blinkers) inside Derby starter Stronghold, Motorious looked like a horse ready to run to his better form. 

#14 Cogburn during the dirt phase of his career had the speed to at least pop the gate and get outside Coppola. I’m unsure whether he has lost that quickness or been ridden and trained in an entirely different manner since he was switched, effectively, to turf. 

I’m not going any further into a race I have little interest in playing. David probably has better ideas. 

David's Response: 

I have no argument against #4 Motorious being the horse to beat. I view him as the most likely winner, and it isn’t particularly close. He’s not going to be much of a price with all those flashy figs, but I do think he’s supposed to be a clear-cut favorite in here. I just don’t want to settle for short prices in chaotic races like this, especially those run over a sometimes quirky turf course. So I’m getting a little creative.

#5 Mo Stash obviously has to improve to beat this field, but doesn’t he have every right to take that next step forward? He showed real quality during his 3-year-old season last year, winning the Transylvania before just failing to hit the board against strong group in the American Turf. While he handles two turns, I’ve always preferred him as a turf sprinter, and am glad the connections were not discouraged by his disappointing effort in the Franklin Simpson, a race that just didn’t suit him. On paper, his return from the layoff seems merely fine, but I thought the replay showed a horse who just dominated his competition, looking ready for stiffer challenges. He gets that here, but outside of Motorious there’s no one in this field who scares me.

I also don’t see a ton of early speed in this race, and Mo Stash has the ability to get forward, especially with an aggressive rider on his back. I expect him to be run well and view him more like a 6-1 chance than a 20-1 shot.

David's Analysis: 

I’m not going to argue with anyone who says #7 Alva Starr and #10 Vahva are simply the two best horses in this Derby City Distaff. Yet I don’t think it’s clear just yet how much of an advantage they really have over their rivals. The Madison provides some evidence that both have stepped up their game as 4-year-olds, but this is a deeper field than that one. I’ve seen a lot of assumptions that Vahva is going to step forward second off the layoff, and perhaps that is the case. I do think she’s the most likely winner, but I feel like she’s destined to go favored here, and I’m not sure I want to take 5-2 or less on either of these fillies.

The problem for Alva Starr could be the pace. #5 Spirit Wind possesses lightning speed out of the gate, and the addition of blinkers suggest that her mission is to stretch this field out and hope for the best. I already have some questions about whether 7 furlongs is truly Alva Starr’s best distance, and a more taxing pace scenario than she faced in the Madison could be her undoing.

Vahva is the obvious closer, but I think there are a couple of others who may be launching from farther off the pace that could offer better value. One of those is #3 Flying Connection, but I suspect Marcus has a stronger opinion on her, so I’ll let him make that case.

I put #8 Sterling Silver on top. True, she was no match for those two favorites last time, but she was trying to close up the rail, which isn’t the most comfortable place for a closing sprinter to rally even in the best of circumstances. And I’m sure Marcus would agree that you generally didn’t want to be making runs from far back on the dirt at Keeneland, especially in sprints. She had really come to hand in the second half of last year, and was clearly best in a fast Gallant Bloom regardless of a questionable stewards decision. I don’t know much about her new trainer Lance Rutledge, but I will note that her two recent fast breezes are in stark contrast to the more conservative training style used by former conditioner Tom Albertrani. Perhaps this change in regimen will take her to that next level, because she does need to get back to her best and then some. I just think she’s going to get the right setup and will almost certainly be a fair price.

Marcus's Response: 

David leaves no pebble unturned going through these races, and the case he makes for Sterling Silver makes me take her chances more seriously. However, I’m pretty high on Vahva winning this. Realizing Alva Starr won the Madison, Vahva, I feel certain, is just a better seven-furlong horse than she. Drawn outside, she’s in line for a much better trip than Alva Starr, who, as David points out, could be pace-compromised. Vahva didn’t have an ideal winter, either; I doubt she was as close to her best at Keeneland as Alva Starr was. 

Flying Connection has run up her win total beating overmatched opponents nowhere near as good as these, and she was a poor second when stepped up to the Grade 2 Torrey Pines last summer. Two things – this filly might have made a leap from age 3 to age 4, and she might turn out to be effective as a one-run closer in a longer one-turn race like this. You could call her performance in the Apple Blossom a suck-along second, but I thought she was better than that. 

I’ll also mention #9 Red Carpet Ready, who showed two races ago she can stalk and pounce but was forced onto the pace last out by an inside post.

Marcus's Pick-4: Marcus has crafted an ABC-style Pick-4 wager starting in Race 6. (Total wagers at base value: $69)

Races: A / B / C
R6: 10 / 3 / 8,9
R7: 3,11,12 / -- / 2,6,7
R8: 2,7,8 / -- / 11,12
R9: 5,11 / 6 / 3,8

Marcus's Analysis: 

#8 Heavenly Sunday will be scratched, so everyone moves in one spot and the race loses on pace element. #1 Ag Bullet runs and either could wind up contesting the pace inside #9 Not So Close or sitting just behind Not So Close. Other possible horses in the vanguard, #6 Delahaye, #7 Evvie Jets, aren’t as fast into the turn as those other two.  

I find this field to be well matched and can envision several possible outcomes, though I have no interest in using Ag Bullet, #4 Ascendancy, #5 Cairo Consort, Not So Close, or Infinite Diamond.  

Once again, I think the morning line has this one wrong and expect #11 Coppice to be the favorite coming out of a decent showing behind the incredible Inspiral in an English Grade 1 and into the barn of trainer Chad Brown. Brown, for what it’s worth, raves about her training; we’ll mainly have to take his word for it, since the only work video is a half-mile on dirt March 16. I will say, the filly impressed in that breeze. When Brown references the electric turn of foot Coppice possesses, I assume refers to her April 20 turf breeze. 

I have to use Coppice: She’s likely still progressive, and while more like a Group 3 horse than top-class overseas, her last two showings in England would likely suffice here. She prefers firmer footing and I’ve little doubt she’s been prepared to run a representative race in her North American debut. But I do think she’ll be bet down, post 10 with a short run to the first turn is no bargain, and when Brown has multiple entries, it often pays to look beyond the horse who that seems “best” on paper.  

#6 Delahaye hasn’t done much wrong, though she has benefited from soft trips, but #3 Chili Flag has more to offer as, presumably, the longer price than Coppice. Chili Flag a year ago couldn’t have won this race, but she hit a new level over the winter and really launched herself from head of the homestretch to finish her last two starts. The race flow favored her in the Honey Fox, but she closed well into a much slower pace in the Pegasus. I doubt Chili Flag becomes a serious player in this division but believe she’s good enough right now to win this. 

#7 Evvie Jets came a long way between fall of 2022 and fall of 2023, and if she jumped into her 2024 campaign the way she ended last year, she’s as likely as anyone. I doubt that will be the case: The 6-year-old ramped up to her peak through the course of her season, and if she’s reaching the same heights, I expect that comes in New York. 

I don’t rule out #2 Walkathon: If I like Chili Flag, I should respect the horse who finished right with her two back before landing in the wrong spot, the Jenny Wiley last month. David is a supporter, and he can flesh out the case. 

David's Response: 

I agree that #11 Coppice will be favored and she looks like a legitimate one. Her European form may look inconsistent at first glance, but she actually ran well in the Falmouth and Sun Chariot facing stiff competition, and then had her saddle slip (akin to California Chrome in the DWC), which mitigated any chance she had to be effective in the Atalanta. It’s also a plus that Dettori already knows her well. Chad Brown has won the last 3 editions of this race, and he appears to send out another great chance.

I don’t like #3 Chili Flag. She benefited from a very favorable setup in the Honey Fox, and while she did have to steady late in the Pegasus, she had gotten an absolutely perfect trip up to that point and was never a serious threat. I never thought much of her in New York last year, and my opinion hasn’t changed.

Watching back the Pegasus, it’s hard for me not to prefer #12 Mission of Joy, who was wide every step of the way and still beat Chili Flag. This Graham Motion filly might be one of the most talented horses in this field. It’s just unfortunate that she’s again drawn outside. Yet that will help her price and she might have the ability to overcome, so I’m not dismissing her.

As for the Honey Fox, I want #2 Walkathon out of that race. She provided the cover that benefited Chili Flag, allowing that one to make the last move in a race that collapsed. Walkathon hit the front too soon and still battled back gamely. While she was overmatched in the Jenny Wiley, she was hardly disgraced staying on for fifth. This mare has finally regained the form that she displayed back in 2022, and she’s drawn perfectly inside with a jockey that loves to save ground.

David's Analysis: 

As soon as the field crossed the wire in the Blue Grass, I was already thinking ahead to how appealing #8 Top Conor might look in a race like the Pat Day Mile, probably even at a square price. Well, here we are, and I was right about him looking pretty attractive in this spot, but maybe not so much about the price. Is he really going to be 5-2, favored over Nash? I was hoping the latter would attract more support in this spot.

As for Top Conor, I loved the professionalism he displayed on debut, rating after breaking from the rail and finishing strongly. I thought he trained great into the Blue Grass and was even an interesting longshot in that race. In retrospect, that may have been a less than serious target, since he was ridden aggressively to the front, setting unreasonably fast fractions for a horse so inexperienced. Marcus will probably tell me the speed-favoring surface enhanced his performance, but I still think this horse has shown real ability.

We’ve seen some excellent editions of the Pat Day over the years, but this one feels slightly subpar. I don’t think Top Conor needs to improve that much to beat this field, and I suspect he has a step forward in him. A mile seems like a perfect distance as well, and he finally gets off the rail. In short, I think he is the most likely winner, so maybe 5-2 is a fair price after all.

It’s not that I’m way against #12 Nash. He can obviously win here, because he probably is better suited to the one-turn mile than those early season Derby preps at Fair Grounds. I just think the Beyer for that Fair Grounds allowance in February is totally phony, and his reputation is largely built on a perfect trip win here last fall, in a race where others had trouble.

The only alternatives I considered were #7 Who Dey and #11 Vlahos. I think Who Dey is a neat horse, but I’m not totally convinced his ceiling is as high as some others in this field. That said, he’ll be a decent price and I know Marcus likes him, so I’m sure he has more to add.

Vlahos is the real wild card. If he is indeed 8-1, that’s probably not a bad price on a horse with such a standout speed figure. That number stands up to scrutiny, as the runbacks have actually flattered him. He looks like more of a sprinter to me, but I’m not going to be shocked when he runs well.

Marcus's Response: 

Nah – Top Conor’s showing amounted to more than riding a bias. I rate him highly, and his debut shows he’ll be fine racing from the second flight. I share David’s skepticism of Nash and agree he’ll be a shorter price and Top Conor longer than the listed odds. 

I did take Who Dey on top but share David’s reservations – he's a bit clunky and awkward, not especially athletic, though he did dive inside to nab second in the Lafayette. With the right race shape – namely, fast early and middle – and a relatively clean trip from midpack, he could have a winning run in him. It would be nice, too, if he learned to relax a little more, and I give him extra credit for his Lafayette showing because of the way the early part of that race went for him. Who Dey was held very, very hard to be taken back off the speed, and he could get into a better rhythm if he didn’t have a fight with his jockey. 

I’ll mention one other horse, #2 Beeline. I expected him to win the Hutcheson more easily, but it’s common for a sharp debut winner to take a small step back in their second start before progressing. From the look of his morning work, that could be the case here. I hope they just send from this inside draw – he might be able to go clear. 

David and Marcus's Joint Pick-5

David and Marcus combine their opinions to craft a Pick-5 starting in Race 8, using the ABC method. (Total wagers: $160)

Races: A / B / C
R8: 7,8 / -- / 2,11,12
R9: 5 / 11 / 2,6,7,8,13
R10: 10 / 4,5,9,11 / --
R11: 4,6 / 1,11 / --
R12: 2,11 / 7 / 4,8,19

Marcus's Analysis: 

No strong opinion in the American Turf. I do have low expectations for one of the shorter prices, #14 Agate Road. Agate Road, Fierceness’s punching bag in workouts, is drawn out in the post 14 parking lot, wasn’t good enough on dirt for the Derby, yet might actually be better on dirt than turf.  

#5 Legend of Time rates a considerably stronger chance, but probably as the favorite. Musical Act did not flatter Legend of Time last month in the Transylvania at Keeneland, and the same modest group of 3-year-old turf horses kept meeting up this winter at Meydan. Legend of Time not only got a perfect pocket trip in the Jumeirah Classic, Musical Act kindly got out of his way in upper stretch, permitting easy passage off the rail. Granted, if you match beaten lengths in the Dubai race and Transylvania last month at Keeneland, Legend of Time wins, but I doubt any of the other jockeys in this race will be offering him assistance, and the Jumeirah Classic was run over 1 1/8 miles through a much longer homestretch.  

That said, it won’t take a Godolphin superstar to contend in this heat. The top four from the Transylvania plus sixth place #13 Can Group exit that race, messy in the running and bunched at the finish. Can Group simply was dull, and #3 Lagynos got a perfect trip; the other three are preferred. #6 Neat’s trouble was of his own making, as he tried to run off going into the first turn. He eventually settled, but it’s hard to trust his approach, and after being eased off the pace on the backstretch, Neat had a good trip. 

#8 Lord Bullingdon plods and lacks upside but did get stuck out wide and finished decently in the Transy. Clearly, #11 Cugino ran best in that race. For the second straight start, he was badly pushed out on the first turn, winding some six paths off the rail, and even after making a middle move and losing more ground on the second turn, Cugino nearly won the Transylvania. He’s my top pick in a race where I’d have to cast a wide net. 

David's Response: 

I strongly disagree with Marcus about Musical Act’s performance in the Transylvania, and I harp on it because it’s key to my assessment of the favorite. Perhaps Musical Act didn’t get as tough a trip as #11 Cugino, but he was wide early, unwisely rated, made a premature move on the backstretch and only fell apart in the last sixteenth after that indecisive ride. In my mind, he’s a horse that’s nearly on par with the top runners out of the Transvylania – and #5 Legend of Time absolutely crushed him in the Jumeirah Classic.

I don’t know if Legend of Time is a superstar, but I’m pretty sure none of the Transvylania horses are anything that special. Sure, Cugino got a tough trip, wide on both turns, and he should have won by a couple of lengths. I still have some concerns about the strength of that field, and he drew an outside post position again, while adding blinkers. I don’t like the latter move, and this is not a jockey who makes a habit of saving ground at all costs.

I just couldn’t get past Legend of Time as being a very likely winner. He drew a great post, and some of his Dubai performances are even better than the bare results might suggest. I think he’s more likely to be 2-1 than 7-2, but I also think that’s probably the right price.

The only other horses that really interested me are both California-based runners. #7 Stay Hot probably has a ceiling that might not be high enough to beat the favorite, but he’s developed a knack for winning and should get a good trip here. Perhaps #8 Lord Bullington is the horse we’re supposed to upgrade. He also never got an opportunity to save ground in the Transvylania, and he had some less than ideal trips prior to that. Again, I don’t know if he's really a Grade 2 quality animal, but that’s the problem with this race. It’s a significantly weaker event than this came up last year – and Legend of Time looks like a serious horse.

David's Analysis: 

This is one of the most confusing races of the weekend. I can actually make a decent case for everyone having a reasonable chance of winning. That’s not to say I would want to bet on them all, and leading the list of those I have no interest in including anywhere in my wagers is #6 Zozos. When I first handicapped this race I thought it was crazy that he was listed as the ML favorite, but the more I think about it, I could see him attracting that level of support. He has name recognition for top connections in a befuddling race. In my view, this horse is as phony as they get. Sure, he ran pretty well to win the Knicks Go last year, but this is a tougher race than that. Subsequently, he rode a bias at Ellis, lost at 1-2 in the Iselin and then took advantage of a ridiculous slow pace in the Ack Ack. He was exposed for being nothing more than ordinary in the Breeders’ Cup, and I think his best days are behind him.

#11 Hoist the Gold makes some sense as the clear speed. He is simply faster than these early and might enjoy a clear lead. I have trouble taking a horse who will be overbet off one big fig over a biased surface in the Cigar Mile, but the truth of the matter is that he backed up that performance to some extent in the Pegasus going a distance that is beyond his limit. Will he be ready to fire another big race coming back from Saudi Arabia? I’m skeptical.

I’ll be honest. I was going to pick #10 Gun Pilot. But then I saw Marcus picked him, and I talked to a couple of other smart people, who also said they like him. And I’m starting to get the sense that he could actually vie for favoritism in this race, no chance of being anywhere near that 10-1 ML. Maybe he’s supposed to be pretty short. I think he has really blossomed around one turn this winter, and he was gamely running at a rejuvenated Edge to Edge last time even though that winner showed no signs of stopping. You could argue 7 furlongs is exactly what he wants, and he drew a great post. I’m definitely using him.

I’m a little less optimistic about #7 Track Mate, who has a similar profile as an improving 4-year-old. I’m concerned about this horse’s tendency to break slowly, especially in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of pace. That said, his ML price seems more likely to hold up.

And speaking of horses in great form, what do you do with #4 Mr. Wireless? He’s run plenty of speed figures going longer that would make him a major player here, and his most recent return from the layoff at Fair Grounds suggests that maybe he was supposed to be sprinting all along. That race came up remarkably fast on the day. A couple of disappointing runbacks have suggested that maybe the figure is an aberration, but he’s still interesting here, especially since he doesn’t feel like one that is going to get overbet based on that number. He’s part of my play.

I said I could make a case for everyone, and I’m nearly going to do that ­– how else do I get to this pick? #5 Here Mi Song is admittedly a bit of a reach here. But he’s one of many who has earned speed figures on the fringes of winning a race like this. Given that this field lacks a standout, he might not have to improve as much as you’d expect to upset this Grade 1. Take out Cody’s Wish, and he was right there at the finish of this race last year, beaten just over a length for second. He subsequently won at Ellis and then got a silly trip in August before going to the sidelines. His Turfway return was lackluster, but he’s not as good on synthetic, and he was ridden like it was merely a prep anyway. This year, they’ve skipped the Commonwealth and have trained up to this race, even booking a live rider. He’s hardly the most likely winner, but he’s going to be too big a price given his talent. I’ll bet him to win but will definitely fool around keying in all slots of the exotics.

Marcus's Response: 

Yes, I’d be keen on Gun Pilot at anything close to 10-1, but half that would hold less appeal. This horse just seems solidly progressive and will race more effectively at seven furlongs to one mile than at six. He was, however, a narrow call for me over #9 Three Technique, who is my version of David’s Here Mi Song, though at a shorter price. He was dead against the bias in the Cigar Mile, misplaced in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, and chasing Zozos through a walking pace in the Ack Ack. The works at the Churchill Downs Training Center have been faster over the last six months or so than has historically been the case, but paging through several days of breezes, I didn’t see anything quite like Three Technique’s 58.80 on April 20.  

#3 Bo Cruz enjoyed the sweetest of trips beating modest competition in the Commonwealth, but I don’t think it’s impossible he could perform considerably better than that having found his niche going 7f to 1 mile. 

Marcus's Analysis: 

#6 I’m Very Busy would be, to me, an extremely appealing play at his morning-line price of 4-1. Alas, I expect he’ll be half that number. Maybe I’m out over my skis with this horse. He has, after all, a grand total of one stakes win on his resume, that in the Muniz Memorial last out. It’s true this is a markedly stronger race, top to bottom, than the Muniz, but if you run a line through Webslinger, nearly a Grade 1 winner and one of the top 3-year-old turf horses of 2023, I’m Very Busy’s was a pretty salty showing. Despite breaking from post 13, Irad Ortiz managed to engineer a good trip for I’m Very Busy – the colt made the most of it. 

My feeling, judging from his Pegasus, the Muniz, and the general appearance of the 4-year-old is I’m Very Busy still has another level to hit. That might not be the case. Skeptics will correctly point out that his candidacy for stardom rests on relatively shallow footing. And if he does take all that money, I can understand opposing him. 

#8 Never Surprised can’t be anywhere near the horse who nearly wired the 2022 Pegasus Turf -- can he? Almost certainly not, but he’s a true speed horse who will try to win this setting a strong pace, and his presence at least ensures a truly run race. #5 Program Trading could be the first to collar him, but don’t expect I’m Very Busy to be nearly as far back as he was in New Orleans. Don’t see Program Trading being quite up to this in his first start since Dec. 2; #1 Integration and #11 Naval Power are the more obvious alternatives. 

Naval Power is considered a firm-turf horse, but he won over a “slow” course in Dubai and looked like he got over wet Keeneland grass in the Maker’s Mark Mile better than Integration. One mile is too short for both horses, but Naval Power has a wide draw to overcome and probably will be a shorter price than Integration, likely his equal. Naval Power racked up wins against modest opposition in England, though he acted up in the gate before finishing a well beaten sixth in the 2022 Dewhurst Stakes, his one real test in Europe. 

Integration was all the rage after beating Program Trading in the Virginia Derby, and he knocked I’m Very Busy around in the Hill Prince – a race that came before I’m Very Busy’s apparent winter transformation. Now, Integration’s star has fallen – for no real reason. The official chart of the Pegasus fails to note that Integration had his path taken away, costing him any chance to win that race, and, once clear, he quickly kicked into high gear. The Maker’s Mark merely was a stepping-stone toward this goal. 

I’m according five of these no real chance to win, but #4 Far Bridge has grand upside on the day unlikely to be reflected in his win price. Let David make his case. 

David's Response: 

We agree that #6 I’m Very Busy is the horse to beat. I also wonder where this sudden improvement came from for a horse who looked merely ordinary last summer, but it’s hard to deny how well he ran in the Muniz.

I don’t want #11 Naval Power. He’s a horse with a recent history of breaking slowly, and that’s a big problem from this wide draw, putting him out of position in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of pace. He got away with the poor start against a small field in the Maker’s Mark, but I don’t think it will be as easy for him this time.

#1 Integration is a tough call for me. He looked like he was on the cusp of becoming the heir to Up to the Mark as the next American turf star in the wake of that Hill Prince romp. While I agree with Marcus that he had some legitimate trouble in the Pegasus, he lacked that instant acceleration and rapid turnover to his stride that produced such an electric final furlong in the Hill Prince. And we didn’t see those attributes last time either, albeit over a course that perhaps didn’t suit him. He’s drawn well here, but he strikes me as a runner who really wants to hear his feet rattle on hard ground underneath him, and he’s not getting that here.

I ultimately settled on #4 Far Bridge as the horse I want to bet, not because I’m supremely confident he’s up to this task, but because I think he’s the unexposed option who will offer the best value. That was a stellar crop of American 3-year-old turf horses last year, and he was among the best of them. Perhaps his season ended on a bit of a sour note, but I won’t be too hard on him for performances at a boggy Saratoga or undulating Kentucky Downs. His return from the layoff at Gulfstream wasn’t fast, and he didn’t beat much, but it felt like a means to an end. He stepped up his game over this course last year, and once again he’s drawn well towards the inside as a horse who wants to ride the rail for as long as possible.

One more runner to mention is #9 Never Explain. He's probably not good enough to win, but his return at Tampa was a strong effort, and he might have forward still to go second off the layoff. I'll use him in exotics.

David's Analysis: 

Having already participated in a 30-minute video, 90-minute podcast, and written extensively all over this site about handicapping the Derby, I’m sure some of you have already come across my take on the race. So I’ll try to keep this relatively concise (edit: as usual, I failed at this), and focus on how my opinions will influence my wagering.

I want no part of #17 Fierceness. For me, it’s just as much about how opportunistic he’s been in his victories as it is his inconsistency. Derby favorites that get preps handed to them, as the Florida Derby was, are generally bad bets at Churchill. He’s never overcome a fast pace, and I think he’s going to encounter one on Saturday. I won’t be shocked if he wins, but I think he’s terrible value at such a short price and will be tossing him.

I’m not quite against #2 Sierra Leone, but I do think he’s slightly overrated. His impressive physical makeup and exciting running style seem to lead people to exaggerate how well he’s actually run. I’ll put it this way: look at the PPs of Mugatu, and think about the fact that Sierra Leone *only* ran 7 lengths better than him in the Blue Grass with very similar trips. That’s mildly problematic, at least for me. Don’t get me wrong. I think he’s among the most likely winners, but I’d want 5-1 and I’m probably not getting it.

I thought about putting #7 Honor Marie on top, and was ultimately scared off by him turning into this year’s “buzz horse.” I still think he’s going to run well. He just seems to float over this Churchill surface, and is training so much better than he ever did during the early part of this season. Even if he’s around 12-1 or 14-1, I’m not sure that isn’t a very fair price. I have a similar take on #4 Catching Freedom, who might even be a little handier, and get first run on some of these other closers. He’s another who seems to be thriving coming into this race. His workouts will never receive the rave reviews that others get, but he’s training a lot better than he did over the winter.  

But, if I’m viewing Fierceness as bad value, and suggesting Sierra Leone, Honor Marie, and Catching Freedom are some of the most likely winners – even though all 3 are closers who have never run particularly fast – there has to be a missing piece.

That’s where #11 Forever Young comes in. It’s always tough to assess horses without common form lines, especially those who raced in another part of the world. So let’s examine some facts. Official speed figures aren’t available for the Saudi Derby or UAE Derby, but any speed figuremaker you talk to will say that if they did create a number for the Saudi Derby, it would be one of the fastest numbers earned by anyone in this field. The UAE Derby clocking was more modest, held back by a slower pace, but Forever Young came home his final 400 meters in just a tick over 24 seconds. Impressive stuff, especially at Meydan.

Yet what really points Forever Young out as a legitimate contender in this Derby is his disposition. If you haven’t seen it, watch the replay of his second start at Mombetsu in Japan. (I tweeted the YouTube video last week.) That's where this narrative that he doesn’t handle kickback stems from, since he clearly resented the barrage of sand – can’t even call that dirt – being flung in his face. He ran the first half of the race with his head up in the air, traveling poorly, like a horse with no hope to even hit the board. Yet, in stark contrast to a horse like Fierceness, he dug down deep in the face of adversity and found a way to still produce a tremendous kick and boldly rally to victory. That’s the attribute – the determination to win at all costs – that has been missing among former hyped UAE Derby winners, and Forever Young has it.

So to recap, Forever Young is among the fastest horses in the race, he gets the distance, and he has the temperament for success. Sounds like a pretty likely winner to me. I’d put fair odds at 5-1 and I think I’ll get that.

Forever Young is the key to my wagers, but I also want to use that aforementioned trio of closers (2,4,7) prominently in exotics. I could even throw in horses like #6 Just Steel, #8 Just a Touch, and #12 Track Phantom somewhere underneath. I don’t love any of them, but one of the speeds usually sticks around and if it’s not Fierceness it’s probably one of them at a much bigger price.

Marcus's Response: 

Let’s just run the race already! I’m talked out on it. 

One point where our opinions absolutely converge – Fierceness. Doing this work, one gets used to being incredibly wrong on occasion. I can live with that. If he’s the horse many people believe, so be it. Something I haven’t seen discussed much about this colt (maybe I’ve missed it) - he’s physically immature. The only thing I really like about the way he looks and moves is when he comes to the wire and gallops out in works – he is very, very good at that. And when he gets in a race that simulates a workout, he runs like he breezes. Even with this supposed “perfect post,” I don’t expect Fierceness to withstand the rigors of this race. 

I joined the Sierra Leone entourage fairly early, touting him in the Remsen – brutal beat. The following has grown vast, and I don’t care for crowds, but I’m hanging in there. Physically and with regard to comportment, it’s difficult to imagine two colts diverging as widely as Fierceness and Sierra Leone. I get David’s point that he feels overrated, but my strong belief is we haven’t even seen the best of this horse yet. He has a way of making his own space in races and I don’t expect him to get into a spot Tyler Gaffalione won’t get him out of. 

I’m more confused by Forever Young. I was a believer coming out of the UAE Derby, and to some extent I still am – he’s a better Derby prospect than Derma Sotogake last year, and that horse’s Breeders’ Cup Classic showed he could have contended at Churchill had he brought his best form. I’m including Forever Young.  

Between the Louisiana Derby two, I side with Honor Marie, who is going to improve in the Derby. To me, Catching Freedom has already gone through all the development he has at this point in his career. I don’t see him doing better than third. 

I’m latching on to #19 Resilience. We all know the recent history of Wood winners, and this year’s renewal was, generally, no outlier. But that was Resilience’s first complete race, and from the way he has trained into this second start with blinkers, I expect him to improve a few lengths and stay the trip.  

Marcus's Analysis: 

This probably is bet like a two-horse race, #2 Discreet Mischief and #9 General Partner the principals. Discreet Mischief holds a recency edge, but General Partner has a much better outside post between two horses who want to show speed, and I believe he’s inherently a superior racehorse – one likely more than adequately fit for his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That two-turn race didn’t suit General Partner, who looks like a horse best at seven-furlongs to one mile. #13 Pirate and #14 Yellow Card could show speed, but from post 9, Tyler Gaffalione on General Partner will have tactical options. 

Discreet Mischief debuted in a fast maiden race coming from off the pace but was on it at Keeneland. He’s, to be frank, a coarse individual, and I don’t care for the way he breezes. He was a perfect horse for the Keeneland main track this spring, and circumstances there might have made him look better than he is.  

#7 Jefferson Street shares some of Discreet Mischief’s characteristics – chiefly, flashy races that might not truly represent his baseline. He can’t be worse than third choice and doesn’t have to figure in the end. 

David's Response: 

I also viewed Discreet Mischief as the horse to beat but wasn't thrilled with a likely short price, especially after the scratch of main rival General Partner. With that one coming out, I'll move #14 Yellow Card up to my top pick. He showed some ability on synthetic and has worked well at Churchill, actually easily handling Derby starter Endlessly in the morning. He might be a better dirt horse despite his obscure pedigree that would appear to lean towards turf. This looked daunting at first pass through the race, but it now seems more attainable for a horse like this after scratches.

David's Analysis: 

There might be some serious talent in this maiden finale. I liked #1 Dive Bomber’s races at Saratoga last year and he appears to be training great for his return (appeared to slightly outwork Discreet Mischief in that last drill). He probably won’t be much of a price, but I view him as a likely winner.

#8 D’oro Unbridled feels like one who was just prepping on debut at Keeneland. Unlike Timeout, who is also back in this field after just edging him out for second, D’oro Unbridled actually broke pretty alertly, but Jose Ortiz had no interest in getting forward position. He allowed this horse to float back to last, just giving him an education. He always traveled well produced a good kick while never asked for his best. I expect he can show more speed second time out, and Ignacio Correas generally does better with second time starters than he does with debut runners. He looks ready to break through, but this isn’t an easy spot.

I have little against other logical horses like #3 Gun Party and #12 Timeout. Even #6 Banned for Life and #9 Six Kings are a little interesting. I just get the sense my top two picks might be stakes horses, and I’m not quite as convinced that’s true of the rest.

Marcus's Response: 

I will say that Discreet Mischief is not an especially good work horse, but his rail draw carried more weight in my leaving Dive Bomber out of my top picks. I’m not against him, but there are a lot of ways to go in what seems like one of the stronger maiden races of the week.  

Gun Party has found the right trip in this one-turn mile after debuting at 6f and trying a route last time. I think he steps up and hits a third start peak with a good trip from mid-pack. 

Banned for Life has worked well since before his debut and got the wrong ride last out at Keeneland – though his inherent quality might fall short of David’s top two.  

I came close to taking D’oro Unbridled on top. Big Ignacio Correas fan, and he never pushes horses into their debut. I’d bet this colt is going to be sharper in the early stages with that race behind him.  

Not sure Six Kings is quite up to getting into the top three in his second start – he probably needs two turns to blossom.