The perceived vulnerability of program favorite #1 Dreaming of Hope opens a window of opportunity in this Cal-bred maiden-50. Dreaming of Hope is my second preference, but 3-1 is no bargain. Her sire Mastery gets only 4 percent winners with debut 2yos, and she is stuck on the rail for her debut. She could win, but at the short price, she is worth going against.

#9 Asian Matriarch is the most likely winner if she reproduces her third-place debut two starts back. She was overmatched last time in a maiden special-weight, yet actually ran okay after stumbling at the break. Listed 4-1, she adds blinkers while dropping in class. Third preference #3 Petite Ange is listed at an inviting 8-1, dropping from a fast MSW and moving to dirt.

Betting strategy is to key Asian Matriarch and Petite Ange on top in an $14 play in the exacta ($1 minimum). Underneath contenders will include program favorite Dreaming of Hope and dropper #2 Super Enticing. A win bet on Petite Ange is recommended. She is listed 8-1, and worth a play at 6-1.

A three-horse exacta box is the play in this $16k claiming N2L that includes top-choice program favorite #8 Tenacious Lady. Claimed from a third-place finish in a $25k claiming N2L sprint, she drops a notch as the horse to beat while also moving from the rail to an outside post.

Two others enter at higher prices. Pace-presser #12 Barbera missed by a neck last out; she ran second at the level two back at Pleasanton. She is listed 6-1, while comebacker #10 Rose Girl is the only entrant who has never raced for a claim tag. First start since April, returning at the bottom level for winners, she looms a front-running upset candidate at 12-1 in the program. Betting strategy is a simple $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) and a win bet on longshot Rose Girl.

#3 Naida debuts with fast works in which she showed speed from the gate. With a seven-pound bug rider aboard, strategy is clear for the program favorite. Naida will try to steal it. If she is successful, she would be the first 2yo sired by He Be Fire N Ice to win his or her debut. That’s a tough stat to against at her listed price of 3-1.

#5 Madison Rae debuts with a decent work pattern, though Peter Miller-trained maidens tend to improve second time out. #9 Tobacco Honey also has a solid work pattern for her debut. But the play in this sprint for Cal-bred maiden 2yo fillies is a longshot reach. She is #6 Princess Belle, a Clubhouse Ride-sired firster with a bunch of slow works. If she was the dud that her works suggest she might be, high-percent trainer Andy Mathis probably would not be wasting his time. perhaps the firster Princess Belle is better than her works indicate. Or, she might be a bust.

At the price, it’s worth finding out. Princess Belle is listed 15-1, and will be the longshot key in a race that might be chaotic. Betting strategy is a $6 play in the exacta, and win-place wagers on the double-digit firster Princess Belle.

#5 Slider should win this MSW for 2yos if he repeats his 85-Beyer runner-up debut. He finished more than five lengths clear of third, and posted a :59.40 bullet from the gate since. Just don’t see how he can start at anything close to his 9-5 program odds. On paper, he looks even-money in a field mostly filled with first-time starters. Want to bet an apparent standout at low odds? Go for it. Slider should win. Small “action bet” only.

This turf mile stakes for 2yo fillies came up light. #6 Angioletta looked good winning a maiden race in her U.S. debut, and stayed in front of her rival #9 Loterie on the gallop-out. I just don’t see that a one-length maiden victory in 1:37.59 is reason to back her at 5-2 in a stakes race. Loterie did have some trouble finishing second, but never got past Angioletta even after the wire.

Perhaps one could make a case for #11 Cailin Dana, wide-trip runner-up in a turf sprint first out and bred for a route. However, this mile stakes race was not the first choice of her connections. She entered a maiden race Friday but got stuck on the also-eligible list. The more one looks at this nondescript field, the more one could fancy #1 Flattery. She ran her final quarter in a quick :23.99 to win her debut. For the sake of action, and at the 4-1 price, the play is a simple win bet on Flattery. She might not be the most probable winner, but the price justifies the risk.

The plan was for this claiming sprint to be a creative selection, and creative wager, at a fat price. After all, the winner of an $8k claiming sprint must be a longshot for $20k claiming, right? Wrong. #4 Jalen Journey remains the top choice, but he was unexpectedly listed as the 7-2 program favorite. There goes that, probably.

The low-level claiming field Jalen Journey defeated by more than three lengths produced three next-out winners. Furthermore, Jalen Journey is a back-class veteran who finished third in the G1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar in 2019, and also placed in graded stakes at Gulfstream Park and Laurel. There are reasons to like him to win while moving up four class levels, but geez, 7-2 is awfully short.

#2 Paco’s Pico drops after showing speed and tiring against tougher; #8 Oil Can Knight is a nine-time winner up in one level seeking his fourth win at Del Mar. #5 Colt Fiction bombed first start off the claim, but his highly rated win two back would crush. I still like Jalen Journey, but plan to back him only if his odds drift. If it happens, great. If not, pass.

Betting strategy is a win bet at 5-1 or higher, and $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) that is a four-horse exacta box including Jalen Journey and three price horses fast enough to win. They are #3 Hooperdrivesthboat, #7 Chasing Fame and #10 Wyfire. For the exacta, let the odds fall where they may.

Can you make money betting a Grade 2 with only six runners? Yes, when the program favorite is merely the third likeliest winner. #4 Closing Remarks is a good, consistent mare with graded wins two of her last four starts. But she holds little or no advantage in this nine-furlong turf race.

In fact, trainer Phil D’Amato could finish one-two with front-runner #6 Turnerloose and late-runner #3 Oakhurst. Turnerloose was rated into defeat last time, yet she lost by only slightly more than two lengths in a stakes race won by Closing Remarks. The strategic mistake the rider made on Turnerloose will not happen again. She will use her speed Saturday in a race without true pace. Color her long gone at 5-2.

As for Oakhurst, her comeback was impressive. She rallied from last to first to win a by a nose. The class hike from N2X to G2 is fine for a lightly raced filly making just her second start since winter. Not a fan of #5 Neige Blanche at anything less than a mile and one-quarter. This is a mile and one-eighth. Betting strategy is a $10 play in the exacta, boxing the two D’Amato runners. A little-margin-for-error $12 play in the late pick five (50-cent min) will insist on a win by race-9 favorite Seal Team and race-10 top choice Chatalas.

(Saturday update: Scratch of #8 Chay's Tornado from race 11 lowers cost of pick five to $9. Ticket has been revised.)

The best three horses in this N2L starter allowance sprint are #10 The Bullion Bomber, who is moved up to third preference, top choice #12 Father Delay and second preference #13 Houndstooth. Those are the only three that will be included in the pick five that began a race earlier. Otherwise, this race is a pass. No plays.

#2 Seal Team might be a stakes horse in disguise. The two-start colt certainly is bred for it. Sired by War Front, produced by a graded stakes-winning dam, Seal Team scored an impressive comeback maiden win last month, and should defeat this N1X field cutting back to one mile.

#7 Aligato is a Cal-bred stakes winner getting accustomed to losing at short prices. He is winless in his last five starts, three times as the favorite all five at 7-2 or less. Aligato might win, but only if Seal Team is not as good as perceived. Betting strategy is a win bet on Seal Team if the price is right. He is listed 5-2, and worth backing at a little bit less.

A deep field of 2yo fillies entered the G1 Del Mar Debutante, led by a pair of impressive maiden winners. They are 7-2 program favorite #9 Tamara and #6 Chatalas, third choice in the program at 5-1. Both fillies can run from behind in a field loaded with speed. A filly by Gun Runner, Chatalas might be very good. She was just getting warmed up at five and one-half furlongs first out, trained well since, and wants longer. Tamara, a Bolt d’Oro produced by Hall of Fame mare Beholder, overcame a slow start from the rail to win her debut by two and one-half. She is very good.

This race does not set up well for the main speeds: #7 Dreamfyre (SCRATCHED), #8 Pushiness or #1 Julias Dream. A pace meltdown could ensue. That is fine, Chatalas and Tamara both can finish. Chatalas is the key to this race, while double-digit longshots worth underneath inclusion are stakes-placed #4 Benedetta and maiden third #12 Gate to Paradise. Those two and last-to-first debut winner #13 Laurent will be included in the exacta.

Betting strategy is a win bet on Chatalas at 7-2 or higher, a $12 play in the exacta using Chatalas mostly over the longshots, and a $10 play in the trifecta that will add Dreamfyre and Tamara. “Saver” plays will center on highly regarded second-time starter Gate to Paradise. Look for an improved effort from her second time out. She is listed 20-1.

(Saturday update: Dreamfyre scratched, which softens the pace in favor of Michael McCarthy-trained speed types Pushiness and Julias Dream. Makes no difference for top choice Chatalas, who has tactical speed. #1 Julias Dream replaces Dreamfyre in trifecta wager, and saver exacta with Gate to Paradise. Tickets have been revised.)

G1-placed #6 Spycatcher should be tough in this maiden turf mile, although he wants a longer distance. #8 Chay’s Tornado (SCRATCHED) improved second out, runner-up in a maiden turf mile behind a winner who returned to win a N1X. #9 Dandy Man Shines ran his final quarter-mile in 23-and-change all four U.S. starts. The upset candidate is #10 Bigofromfresno, a 20-1 bomb stretching out from a better-than-looked debut. A four-horse exacta box costs $12, plus a win bet on the crazy.

(Saturday update: Chay's Tornado scratched. Revised exacta play below, same $12 cost with recommendation to play it twice.)