Daily Racing Form Southern California handicapper Brad Free provides his selections, analysis and suggested wagers for Saturday, Aug. 19 at Del Mar.
- Brad Free’s top 4 picks for each race (Thursday evening)
- Brad Free’s analysis of top races (Friday evening)
- Betting strategies (tickets you can play) for each race based on the analysis (Friday evening)
- Tickets for multi-leg tickets (Friday evening)
Full-Card Selections | Exclusive Analysis | Wager Suggestions You Can Play
Full-card selections | Exclusive Analysis | Wager Suggestions You Can Play
2-Dove in Charge
6-Dawn At Last
8-Fried Asparagus
1-Bella Baby
The lowest class level for Del Mar winners – $16k claiming non-winners two – does not always lend itself to attractive wagering opportunities. And maybe if the Florida shipper #2 Dove in Charge was listed higher than 3-1 in the program, she would be an exception.
Her spring races at Gulfstream Park earned figures close enough to par for this level (66 Beyer), and a sharp Del Mar gate work a week ago indicates she is ready to fire for her first start in two months. Florida trainer Rohan Chrichton entered the week 1-for-16, but many of his Del Mar starters are running well. At the right price, Dove in Charge would merit a play. But she is not the right price, at least for a serious wager.
#6 Dawn At Last drops from a starter allowance at Pleasanton; she dueled and cracked in a race dominated by closers. She moves outside (6 of 8), faces a softer pace scenario and easier rivals. Her 68-Beyer maiden-claiming romp two back qualifies her on speed. But her program odds are almost as unattractive as the top choice. She is 4-1. Late-running dropper #8 Fried Asparagus is a program favorite that is shaky. She drops in class, but needs the speed to stop. Ultimately, the first race on the card is a small action bet on Dove in Charge. Just a token wager for the sake of action.
3-Hula Candy
4-Seal Team
6-Smooth Salute
5-Caribbean King
Having chased #3 Hula Candy more than once, without success, maybe it’s time to give up on the 5yo maiden. But he has never had a fair shot. He finished with run in his debut, then was wide throughout next time, and last out he was blocked the final quarter-mile to miss by less than two lengths in a race similar to this. He gets a rider switch Saturday, stretches from a mile to a mile and one-eighth, and may only need a clean trip. He has not had a clean trip yet.
#4 Seal Team has trained super for his comeback, his got stuck on the also-eligible list twice this meet, which is why he is only now making his comeback. The well-bred colt (War Front, graded stakes-winning mare) showed promise in his runner-up debut last fall. #6 Smooth Salute fits off his last-out third, and #5 Caribbean King has a hot trainer-jockey combo.
Betting strategy is a pick three play that will toss program favorite Smooth Salute. Not knocking his chances, but Hula Candy and Seal Team are listed at higher odds with a possibly better chance to stay the mile and one-eighth. Smooth Salute could win, and if so, turn the page. It’s a $12 play in the pick three (50-cent minimum) that uses only Hula Candy and Seal Team, and insists on a win by one of the favorites in races 3 and 4. Both look solid.
6-Established
4-Golden Ale
5-C'Mon Man
2-Departure
#6 Established is likely to start at a shorter price than his 8-5 program odds in this $25k claiming sprint, based on his last-out runner-up for $32k. The veteran gelding likes the Del Mar track, and his natural speed projects to a comfortable trip forwardly placed. Established should win. But except for the pick three that began a race earlier, this race is a pass. No plays.
5-Ennereilly
2-Beads
6-Flattery
8-Baltic Fire
This turf mile for 2yo fillies is another race with a standout. European import #5 Ennereilly finished second in her debut in Ireland; the winner won a stakes race next out, the third and fifth-place finishers won maiden races next out. Ennereilly makes her U.S. debut with a regular work pattern for trainer Phil D’Amato. Can a second-start maiden be the class of the field? In this case, yes. Ennereilly is listed 5-2, and likely to start lower.
It’s a drop to the others. #2 Beads stretches out from two sprints; her previous turf start was a race that produced three next-out winners; her even-paced style suits two turns. #6 Flattery makes her debut for trainer Peter Eurton, who won with both debut 2yos last week in sprints. Eurton and jockey Juan Hernandez enter the week having won 14 races from 18 starters together this year. #1 Mocha Grande should like two turns after a midpack debut; #4 Runyon Canyon and #8 Baltic Fire have worked well enough together to be considered live. Betting strategy is a win bet on Ennereilly if the price is right, and an $10 play in the exacta ($1 min) that keys Ennereilly on top.
6-Mango Moon
4-Just a Little Luck
8-Numerica
2-R Girl's Werth It
This $16k claiming N2L sprint is a split of race 1. The difference is this race is more open. #6 Mango Moon has an excuse for her Los Alamitos misfire as the favorite last out – she fell apart mentally. But her debut win in her previous start was at the expense of a weak field. Mango Moon is dubious, and so are the others. #4 Just a Little Luck drops and has speed; #8 Numeric needed her comeback; #2 R Girls Werth It drops; #7 Barbara will be forwardly placed at 6-1, same as #8 Numeric at 8-1.
The interesting entrants are Barbara and Numeric at generous odds. Betting strategy is a $14 play in the exacta ($1 min) that insists one of the longshots finishes one-two. Also, saver win bets on both.
5-Evening Sun
9-Lovesick Blues
1-Hit the Road
6-Goliad
#5 Evening Sun is worth gambling on at 6-1 program odds. A graded winner, he had a nightmare trip in his comeback. He got keen and was unrelaxed, then blocked into and through the lane while trying to rally. A 4-for-15 gelding who won twice on the Del Mar turf course in 2021, Evening Sun can outrun his odds second start back with a clean trip.
One reason to like Evening Sun is there are questions about many other contenders. Second preference #9 Lovesick Blues is racing beyond his preferred sprint trip; program favorite #1 Hit the Road is a G1 winner who showed signs of life last out. But his career stalled after he got trounced in a Gulfstream Park Grade 1 early last year. His best days probably are behind him. #6 Goliad stretches out with speed to make the lead if he wants. #4 Flashiest will rally late. Main betting strategy is a win bet on Evening Sun, and an $8 play in the exacta ($1 min) that puts Evening Sun on top of four middle-price contenders.
7-Flynn's Chance
1-Tamara
5-Timely Arrival
3-Hope Road
Program favorite #3 Hope Road is not a great bet at low odds. Nothing wrong with her debut, she rallied from last to miss by a half-length with a 72 Beyer that is the highest in this field. But the race may not be as good as the number. The winner Dua regressed 16 points next out; the third- and fourth-place finishers regressed 20 points. Hope Road benefits stretching from five furlongs to six and a half, but the suspicion is she will be undervalued regardless where she finishes.
Richard Mandella-trained first-time starters #7 Flynn’s Chance and #1 Tamara both trained like they are well-meant; #5 Timely Arrival likewise. The online workout videos of Flynn’s Chance are positive, she has been working well in company. And, she is a sibling to a Grade 3 winner. As for Tamara, she was produced by Beholder, therefore expectations are high. Beholder can produce a runner; her second filly is G3 winner Teena Ella. Timely Arrival is by a 20-percent debut juvenile sire, from a stable that is loaded with 2yos. Betting strategy will toss program favorite Hope Road. It’s a $12 play in the double ($2 min), using non-favorites to the top choices in the next race, the Del Mar Oaks.
5-Anisette
6-Impact Warrior
2-Window Shopping
9-Be Your Best
Despite convincing wins by #5 Anisette her first two U.S. starts, history says she is up against it in the Del Mar Oaks. The past two decades, seven winners of the Grade 2 San Clemente Stakes went favored in the Del Mar Oaks and only one won – Evening Jewel in 2010. Six favorites lost; the two-decade tally of San Clemente winners in the Del Mar Oaks is 1-for-20.
Maybe it’s mumbo-jumbo. But one thing that cannot be ignored is that San Clemente winners tend to be undervalued in the Del Mar Oaks. Yes, Anisette is the horse to beat. But others are in with a chance, particularly #6 Impact Warrior, whose runner-up U.S. debut sets her up perfectly for the Oaks. Four of the last 20 Del Mar Oaks winners came from Del Mar allowance races.
#2 Window Shopping is a top filly who has aimed to this turf stakes all summer. Grade 2 winner on dirt, Window Shopping ran better than looked her only try on turf. #9 Be Your Best, from New York, figures as a contender off her Grade 2 runner-up two back.
The X-factor is two-for-two #7 Big Pond, arguably the speed of the field and stretching out for the first time. If she avoids a duel with sprinter #8 Absolutely Zero and front-running allowance winner #4 Ruby Nell, Big Pond conceivably could steal it. At 8-1 in the program, she will be included equally with Anisette and Impact Warrior in a $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) and $18 play in the pick three (50-cent min).
5-Tone Feelin
3-Man On the Moon
7-Universal Payday
8-Big Buzz
#5 Tone Feelin, listed 8-1, is worth gambling on. He ran smack into an anti-inside bias opening day at one claiming level higher than this. He drops a notch Saturday, faces less speed, and could outrun his odds with a front-running or pace-pressing trip. As for his main rivals, the only knock is price.
#3 Man On the Moon moves up two levels off a highly rated win for $8k; #7 Universal Payday drops a notch off a bias-aided runner-up finish in the same race Tone Feelin exits. They are listed 3-1 and 5-2, respectively. First-off-the-claim #8 Big Buzz is a contender off back races. Ultimately, the horse on which to gamble might be up against it, but based on risk-versus-reward, Tone Feelin is an 8-1 longshot worth backing. Betting strategy is a win bet on Tone Feelin and an $8 play in the exacta ($1 min) that insists Tone Feelin finish one-two.
6-El Potente
5-Baj
9-Vancougar
4-Tio Magico
Can you trust #6 El Potente? The controlling speed in this N1X turf route, El Potente has not started in more than three months. But his winter-spring form at Santa Anita was outstanding, he is the high-figure horse in the field, with a potential pace advantage. He could be loose.
The only real knock, in addition to his 5-2 odds, is the layoff. If he is as good as he was early this year, El Potente can be long gone. But it’s tough to take a short price on a summer starter who has not raced since April.
#5 Baj figures for a cozy trip as perhaps the only other true speed in the field. If it so happens that El Potente does not fire, Baj would be first over. #4 Tio Magico will rally late. #9 Vancougar had a tough trip last time and is a candidate to outrun his 12-1 program odds. Betting strategy centers on longshot Vancougar, a win bet and $14 play in the exacta ($1 min) that keys Vancougar with the logicals.