Daily Racing Form Southern California handicapper Brad Free provides his selections, analysis and suggested wagers for Saturday, Aug. 12 at Del Mar.

Date
Title
Schedule
Description
  • Brad Free’s top 4 picks for each race (Thursday evening)
  • Brad Free’s analysis of top races (Friday evening)
  • Betting strategies (tickets you can play) for each race based on the analysis (Friday evening)
  • Tickets for multi-leg tickets (Friday evening)
  • If necessary, picks, analysis, and suggested wagers will be updated Saturday after key scratches
Selection Title
Selections
Analysis Title
Analysis
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Races
Race
Race 1
Race Description
N1X/OC 80k
Expert
Selections

1-Free and Humble
5-Firsttimeinforever
4-Sherlyn Go Go
3-Havana Angel

Analysis

This six-entrant N1X filly turf mile is the smallest field for a turf race this meet; the one-two favorites #1 Free and Humble and #5 Firsttimeinforever seemingly stand out. Free and Humble ran okay last out, a rallying third against the flow; the race was won by the pacesetter. Lightly raced Firsttimeinforever scored a rally-wide maiden upset last out. She is improving, and making just her third start of the year. Four other entrants look ordinary.

Turf races this meet averaged more than 10 runners per race. By comparison, this small-field raffle offers no apparent value. It might be annoying to start off the Saturday card by passing the first race, but not as frustrating as squandering one’s bankroll by betting a race that offers no advantage. No plays.

Plays Title
Plays
Race
Race 2
Race Description
40k claiming
Expert
Selections

7-Mastering
3-Motown Music
1-Direct Line
8-Cyberviking

Analysis

Given the apparently tepid pace scenario, #7 Mastering is a proper choice in this $40k claiming dirt mile. He is the 8-5 program favorite. Mastering, however, is a parimutuel underachiever. Although he is a four-time winner, he is only 1-for-4 as the favorite and that was a narrow victory two years ago. The point is, Mastering does not always run as well as his past performances suggest he should. If he runs back to his Santa Anita win three back, Mastering should win with a forwardly placed trip. But he is a tough dude to trust.

#3 Motown Music, off two and a half months, runs well fresh and fits off his $50k claiming win two back. #1 Direct Line is a two-time winner at Del Mar, and though he has not started since December, he also runs well fresh. #8 Cyberviking would be interesting on the stretch-out, but his stable entered the weekend mired in a 1-for-38 slump. It’s easy to get buried at Del Mar – trainer, jockey, bettor. However, if the idea that Mastering is vulnerable is correct, it does not make sense to completely pass on Cyberviking despite a cold trainer. His sprint figures are fast enough; both previous two-turn races last summer were decent.

So, it’s four deep in an $18 play in the pick three ($1 minimum). The key horse in the races 2-4 sequence is Sakura Flavor in the next race. A second ticket will include both Sakura Flavor and a 15-1 bomb.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Pick three
Bet Horses
1, 3, 7, 8 with 6 with 2, 4, 8
Bet Type
Pick three
Bet Horses
1, 3, 7, 8 with 4, 6, with 2, 4, 8
Race
Race 3
Race Description
MSW
Expert
Selections

6-Sakura Flavor
3-Night Blue
1-Irish Rose
7-The Flying Pharoah

Analysis

A bad-trip playback is #6 Sakura Flavor, a maiden filly with improving form hidden by her last-out sixth-place finish. She actually ran okay. She got stuck behind runners through the far turn and into the lane, remained blocked, found a seam late, finished well and galloped out well. It was a step forward by a filly ready for a maiden win in her sixth career start.

Sakura Flavor is listed 5-1 in the program. That seems right considering she finished sixth at higher odds last out. And it’s a price worth taking. A trio of unclassified European imports complicate matters. #3 Night Blue runs for a trainer who does well with maiden imports; #2 Den of Iniquity goes for a trainer whose only win with a foreign shipper the past five years was a maiden-claiming sprint at Turfway Park; and modest #5 Gentle.

There is a longshot bomb. #4 Strikingly, listed 15-1, is not that bad even though she is an 11-start maiden. But her Thoro-Graph figures are virtually the same as her rivals (Thoro-Graph incorporates ground loss). She has tactical speed in a turf route without much pace, and her opening-day fourth was actually okay. Doubt that Strikingly can win, but she certainly could hit the board again.

Betting strategy centers on Sakura Flavor. For starters, she is worth win bet at 4-1 or higher. A small saver win bet on longshot Strikingly is suicide insurance. Also, a $7 play in the exacta ($1 min) that puts Sakura Flavor on top of Strikingly, and an exacta box with those two. Finally, a $7 play in the trifecta (50-cent min) that insists Sakura Flavor win and Strikingly finish third.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (4-1 minimum)
Bet Horses
6
Bet Type
Win (saver)
Bet Horses
4
Bet Type
Exacta (five times)
Bet Horses
6 with 4
Bet Type
Exacta box
Bet Horses
4, 6
Bet Type
Trifecta (two times)
Bet Horses
6 with 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9 with 4
Race
Race 4
Race Description
N1X/OC 40k
Expert
Selections

8-Sir London
2-Ever a Rebel
4-Oviatt Class
1-Indulge

Analysis

If he improves in his second start following an extended layoff, sprint-to-route #8 Sir London should win this N1X dirt mile. His runner-up comeback was promising, his best races have been two turns, and his up-front style should play well in a field without much pace. According to the Daily Racing Form “Del Mar Clocker Report” by workout analyst Toby Turrell, Sir London has worked exceptionally well since raced. The knock is price. Sir London is 5-2 program favorite.

#2 Ever a Rebel is a pace-pressing dirt horse who was eliminated in a turf stake last out. He lost position early and never got close. It was a toss race. His dirt form is solid, he has speed to keep Sir London in his sights.

But a late-running upset candidate is #4 Oviatt Class, listed 8-1. His only win was at Del Mar, he makes his third start following a layoff. Because front-runners Sir London and Ever as Rebel have similar styles, it makes sense to include late-runner Oviatt Class. His seventh last out at Santa Anita is forgiven; this N1X at Del Mar is the race he has targeted. Betting strategy is a $10 play in the exacta ($1 min) that centers mostly on longshot late-runner Oviatt Class and presses with Sir London.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta key box
Bet Horses
4 with 2, 8
Bet Type
Exacta box
Bet Horses
4, 8
Bet Type
Exacta (four times)
Bet Horses
8 with 4
Race
Race 5
Race Description
MSW Cal
Expert
Selections

7-Safa
3-Hayley Amber
5-Hot Danzing
4-Smile Baby Smile

Analysis

Maiden 2yo fillies bred in California race six furlongs, and there are plenty of questions. #7 Safa ran okay finishing third in her career debut opening weekend. She was used early, raced mostly inside over a pro-outside track, finished evenly and galloped out with run after the wire.

The concern is dirt might not be preferred for Safa. Sired by outstanding California turf stallion Grazen, Safa entered a Cal-bred maiden turf race Friday, but got stuck on the also-eligible list. This dirt race is her backup. She remains the top choice, but maybe she wants turf, and her odds are nothing to get excited over. She is listed 7-2. That seems low.

#3 Hayley Amber drops from a third against open company. The winner Bendetta is a favorite in the race-6 G3 Sorrento Stakes; the runner-up Tambo won her next start. Hayley Amber drops into a Cal-bred maiden race and should improve. First-time starter #5 Hot Danzing is by 16 percent juvenile debut sire Danzing Candy, but it is uncertain if he is cranked. He appeared green in his solo gate work one week ago.

#4 Smile Baby Smile rallied wide with the track bias to finish second behind a stablemate in her local debut. She reportedly worked well since. #9 Peppertini got loose in the pre-race before her debut, and merely ran around the track. Suspect she is better than that race makes her look, but not certain.

A viable upset candidate at double-digit odds is #6 Talent for Gold, listed 12-1. She has trained exceptionally well since a speed-and-fade debut. She might be the speed of the field. In a race that looks wide open, this might be a good spot to take a shot at a price. Talent for Gold may not be the most probable winner, but her works suggest she will take a big step forward second time out. Betting strategy is a longshot wager – win and place – on the second-time starter.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win
Bet Horses
6
Bet Type
Place
Bet Horses
6
Race
Race 6
Race Description
Sorrento Stakes (G3)
Expert
Selections

8-Benedetta
3-Dua
2-Dreamfyre
7-Ur in Trouble

Analysis

Top choice #8 Benedetta has been a star from the get-go. She worked 9.80 at a 2yo sale and sold for $750,000. She worked fast before her debut, and cruised without being asked. In her team drill July 29, she broke off behind her workmate and inhaled that rival. Everything has gone perfect for Benedetta, whose outside draw in this G3 gives her options. Only one problem – she is listed at the depressingly low price of 2-1 in this G3 for 2yo fillies.

Juan Hernandez rode Benedetta first out, and #3 Dua first out. Benedetta is trained by Simon Callaghan; Dua is trained by Bob Baffert. Hernandez will stick with Baffert, of course. Victor Espinoza, who showed signs of a resurgence last week, rides Benedetta. Espinoza reportedly worked her last weekend. Dua muscled her way to victory first out at five furlongs; she wants to run farther and she does not want to be pushed along like she was first out.  She stretches out a furlong, and should improve at six furlongs. Baffert has won the Sorrento seven times; Dua would make it eight.

#2 Dreamfyre is fast; she ran colts and geldings off their feet last out when she made her career debut in a stakes race. Maybe she will wire the field, but Benedetta is quick also. Indications are Benedetta is a serious filly, but worth a win wager only if her odds drift. Based on speed figures of her rivals, Benedetta seems likely to go higher. Betting strategy is a win bet on Benedetta at 5-2 or higher; she will be a single in a $28 play in the late pick five regardless of price.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (5-2 minimum)
Bet Horses
8
Bet Type
PIck five
Bet Horses
8 with 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 with 8 with 1, 5 with 2, 4, 7, 12
Race
Race 7
Race Description
N2X/OC 80k
Expert
Selections

8-Runninwiththeboyz
5-Carmen Miranda
6-Ready Jet Go
4-Stressed

Analysis

#8 Runninwiththeboyz and #5 Carmen Miranda are virtual equals as favorites in this N2X turf sprint. Runninwiththeboyz, who has three wins and a second from four turf sprints, is listed 5-2 shortening up with a versatile style that allows her to press or rally. Carmen Miranda, a pace-presser, has not started since April, but she runs fresh and is proficient in sprints. She is 7-2. This race is deeper than the chalk, however. #6 Ready Jet Go is racing above her N1X eligibility, but the late-runner benefits by the pace scenario. #6 Stressed is a dropper with speed; #1 Secrets Told adds heat; #3 Hotitude will rally. Truth is, this race is absolutely wide open. Pass race. No plays.

Plays Title
Plays
Race
Race 8
Race Description
MSW
Expert
Selections

8-Pastor T
6-Point Dume
1-Sir Maximus
7-In Suspense

Analysis

#8 Pastor T is likely to win this 2yo MSW sprint if he runs as well as he worked in company last weekend. He went heads-up with 90-Beyer debut winner Muth, the odds-on favorite Sunday in the Grade 3 Best Pal. Pastor T drew outside; his sire Into Mischief is a top debut sire. Pastor T is listed 8-5, and could go lower.

Pastor T is trained by Bob Baffert, and as often the case, Baffert starts a pair. In similar races, both Baffert firsters have been “live.” #6 Point Dume worked in company last weekend with Dua, a filly who is one of the race-6 favorites in the Sorrento Stakes. Pastor T and Point Dume both are by Into Mischief, and produced by stakes-winning or Grade 1-placed mares.

There is a third option in this sprint. #1 Sir Maximus is by first-crop sire Maximus Mischief, whose 2yo progeny entered the week an outstanding 9-for-31 first time out. Furthermore, trainer Michael McCarthy is loaded this year with 2yos. He has won four maiden races and one stakes race already, Maximus Mischief has trained well enough to command attention at 5-1. Betting strategy is a modest $16 play in the double that keys Pastor T and race-9 “longshot” Lucky Girl. The double play is mainly for the sake of action.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Double
Bet Horses
8 with 1, 3, 4, 5, 6
Bet Type
Double
Bet Horses
1, 6, 8 with 5
Race
Race 9
Race Description
Yellow Ribbon Hcp (G2)
Expert
Selections

1-Closing Remarks
5-Lucky Girl
4-School Dance
3-Spirit and Glory

Analysis

#1 Closing Remarks is a proper favorite in this G2 turf route, but the field’s only graded stakes winner on turf is no cinch. She repeatedly finds trouble, and though her former jockey Joe Bravo is partly responsible, perhaps the mare herself is to blame. Closing Remarks is the horse to beat under new rider Umberto Rispoli, but 5-2 program odds offer no value.

The truth is, this race is wide open, and second preference #5 Lucky Girl is worth backing at the right price. She had a brutal trip last time. A rival veered left in the stretch, and took the path of Lucky Girl. She steadied, lost momentum, re-rallied inside and galloped out super. Lucky Girl is a better filly this year at age 4; her improvement is camouflaged by her sixth-place comeback. Lucky Girl is worth backing.

#4 School Dance wanted no part of setting the pace last out; she will be rated Saturday. That softens the pace for either #2 Turnerloose or #6 Ganadora. Either could make the lead. Ganadora is interesting, because she could find herself on the lead and she worked well on turf Aug. 3. Betting strategy is a win bet on Lucky Girl, and exacta saver with Closing Remarks on top.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (5-1 minimum)
Bet Horses
5
Bet Type
Exacta (saver)
Bet Horses
1 with 5
Race
Race 10
Race Description
16k claiming
Expert
Selections

7-Missed Call
12-James Gang
3-Kislovodsk
11-Cathedral Light

Analysis

The lowest class level for winners at Del Mar is this level, non-winners of two, $16k claiming. #7 Missed Call is the one to beat after a better-than-looked fourth opening weekend when he raced inside most of the race, over an anti-inside surface. He was claimed by a sharp first-off-the-claim trainer, and looks like the one to beat.

But it’s not a one-horse race. #12 James Gang returns from a one-year layoff dropping into a claiming race for the first time. Whatever he can do, he is likely to do first start back. #2 Kislovodsk finally won a maiden-claiming race last out in the 12th start of his career. Career maidens who take forever to finally win occasionally win right back at the N2L claim level. It is referred to as the “light bulb” play – the light bulb finally went in. Kislovodsk fits the description and he is listed 6-1. All three are must-use contenders, along with comeback dropper #4 Bag’s Gold, listed 8-1 and reportedly working well. Betting strategy is a $16 play in the exacta that mostly insists on an upset by either Kislovodsk or Bags Gold. This is another bet mainly for the sake of action.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta (two times)
Bet Horses
2, 4 with 2, 4, 7, 12
Bet Type
Exacta (two times)
Bet Horses
7 with 2, 4
Select Track