Does it make sense to back a low-odds debut 2-year-old by Curlin in a six-furlong sprint? Probably not, and there are two in this field. #3 Mission Beach and #7 Dagger Ranch, 2-1 and 5-2, are Curlin colts trained by Bob Baffert and working well. Program favorite Mission Beach is preferred; Baffert named top rider Ramon Vazquez. Dagger Ranch’s scheduled rider is Victor Espinoza.

While either firster could win, a second-time starter offers upset potential. #1 Next Level is the only entrant with racing experience; he broke poorly and finished last in a stake that was only a prep. Since then, Next Level has worked well. With a race under his belt and an additional furlong, Next Level should take a step forward. Betting strategy focuses on third preference Next Level, listed 6-1. The single-race betting strategy is a win bet on Next Level, and $10 play in the exacta ($1 minimum). An $18 play in the early pick five (50-cent min) singles the favorite in race 5.

#6 Annie’s Song is back on her preferred surface, and should get a forwardly placed trip in this $32k claiming turf sprint. Speed generally does well in turf sprints with the rails at 18, 24 and 30 feet (rails at 18 feet Saturday). Annie’s Song has speed. Her placement at this level is reasonable; she finished second against similar in spring.

The opposite is true of program favorite #5 Rakassah, who plummets in class after missing by a head in a N2X in April. Rakassah is, or was, the best horse. But the drop is curious, and jockey Jessica Pyfer has not ridden a race in three months. Annie’s Song at 4-1 would be a reasonable gamble. Even if she ticks down a point, she is still a bet. Betting strategy is win on Annie’s Song at 3-1 or higher, and a $6 play in the exacta ($1 min) that keys Annie’s Song on top of all but the favorite. (Despite concerns about Rakassah, she was included in the pick five play.)

#7 Colette’s Joy should have won her debut two months ago at 12-1 odds. However, she was blocked inside, had to wait, finished strongly inside to miss by less than a length, and galloped out super past the wire. A person close to the Mark Glatt stable said “That’s okay, she’ll run in a maiden race at Del Mar for more money.” That race is now, $82k purse compared to $62k at Santa Anita. Unfortunately, the odds for Colette’s Joy went the other way – down. She is listed 2-1, and she can win with a trouble-free trip from the outside post.

The only other entrant that may offer value is second-time starter #1 Jensco. She broke slowly, lost ground and flattened out in her better-than-looked debut. Recommendation is a win bet on Colette’s Joy and $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) with Colette’s Joy over Jensco, first-time starter #5 Betty’s Song and #6 Duchessofbayridge.

(Saturday update: Jensco worked super since her debut. Colette's Joy still preferred, but post-debut works by Jensco suggest she is a major player despite the rail.)

Program favorite #6 Justique is uncertain around two turns and seemingly vulnerable in this N2X dirt mile even though Del Mar is her favorite track. There is less uncertainty regarding a pair of 3-1 shots trained by Baffert – #8 Doinitthehardway and second preference #4 Lucky for You.

Doinitthehardway scored impressive dirt-route wins her two most recent starts with Lasix, which she can be treated with while dropping from graded stakes into an allowance. She is faster than stablemate Lucky for You, who was nominated to the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch but shows up instead in this N2X. Unless it turns out that Justique can stay two turns, this dirt mile should be won by a Baffert trainee. It’s nice that neither is favored in the program, but wagering value is minimal. No plays.

Did not expect #6 Maxville to wheel back so soon, just eight days after an excellent fourth-place finish in a similar Cal-bred maiden turf mile. Maxville was the only entrant to run his final quarter-mile in less than 24 seconds; he ate up ground late in the best effort of his three-start career. It was his first route, and he should be tough to deny in this easier spot. Maxville would offer value in the win pool at his 5-2 morning line. Betting strategy is Maxville to win if the price is right, otherwise he is merely a stand-alone single in the final leg of the early pick five.

(Saturday update: #3 Defensor Fortis ran super with an impossible trip last out: off slow, rank, wide, better-than-looked eighth-place finish. Maxville remains the one to beat, but Defensor Fortis will give the top choice all he can handle and might be worth a saver bet.)

A maiden-20 smack in the middle of the card is headed by #10 Pretty Rena and #8 La Paloma Blanca, the two favorites in the program. #3 Copper Bo Ten has speed and drops, while career maiden #5 Warren’s Show Bizz will rally late.

There is a longshot in this field worth looking at. #1 Queen P ships in for Florida-based trainer Robert Crichton, who has an excellent record with first-time starters in maiden-claiming dirt sprints: 6 for 25 the past four years with a significant flat-bet profit. There has to be a reason Crichton shipped a maiden-20 across the country. It might be the filly is live first time out.

Betting strategy is a $14 play in the exacta ($1 min) that mostly keys Queen P with logical entrants La Paloma Blanca and Pretty Rena, and a small box with dropper #3 Copper Bo Ten. A saver win bet on Queen P is warranted. Queen P is moved up to fourth preference.

Highly rated winner both recent dirt starts, #9 My Man Bags would win this Cal-bred allowance sprint if it was on preferred surface. It’s not. It’s a turf race, a surface on which My Man Bags ran below part twice. While recognizing he is the fastest horse in the field, his 5-2 program odds will hardly justify the risk he will reproduce his dirt form on turf.

#2 Geezer has not started on turf, either. But he worked fast over the course last weekend, his dirt figs are decent, and his odds are twice as high as the favorite. His trainer Hector Palma and jockey Tiago Pereira teamed Thursday with a $17.40 winner, here’s hoping they repeat with a 3-for-6 comebacker listed 5-1. #5 I’m Dr. O and #7 Roy Hobbs are not “fast enough” on figs, but both are bred for turf and listed 6-1 and 12-1 respectively.

Betting strategy focuses on Geezer, with exactas that also use longshots I’m Dr. O and Roy Hobbs. If program favorite My Man Bags wins again, we’re out of luck. Along with a win bet on Geezer, it’s a $15 play in the exacta.

Top choice Frost Alert scratched, leaving #10 Got Thunder as the choice while dropping from N1X to N2L claiming second start since being gelded. Got Thunder was purchased for $750,000 as a 2yo, the 4yo son of Arrogate is now entered for a $16k claim tag. Pass. No plays.

#6 Kings River Knight won both recent stakes setting the pace, but he also runs well from off the pace. Two turf wins last year were come-from-behind victories. He’ll need versatility in this Cal-bred turf route stakes, because this race is loaded with speed. The issue is that 9-5 program odds is minimal value. Respect the chalk, but not in love with him. #5 Carmelita’s Man has three wins and two seconds from seven starts on DMR turf, and is listed 5-1 in a race that sets up for him.

#10 Indian Peak and #3 None Above the Law are stablemates with back races good enough, while 15-1 bomb #1 Royal ’n Rando has a closing style that suits the lively pace scenario. Keeping it simple with a $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) that mostly keys top choices Kings River Knight and Carmelita’s Man.

Searching for value in a five-horse Grade 1 can be a fool’s errand. #3 Adare Manor is odds-on based on her career-best score last out, although she won’t get such an easy lead here. #2 Fun to Dream might be best around one turn, though she has won running long. She is second preference regardless. #5 Desert Dawn finally gets pace to run at; she is 3-1. The other two are likely pacesetter #1 Elm Drive at 8-1, and come-from-behind filly #4 Kirstenbosch at 10-1. Betting strategy is a non-serious token win bet on the two longest shots, just for the sake of action. Elm Drive could steal it, Kirstenbosch could rally for an upset over a track on which she won her only start.

#7 Irish Patsy sprints as if she will handle the distance of this mile turf starter allowance. #1 Norah’s Princess was overmatched last out in Cal-bred N1X; she drops to starter for her third start following a layoff. #6 Tickle My Fancy is speed from the East Coast, and with Edwin Maldonado aboard, an up-front strategy is likely. In a wide-open race, betting strategy is a $12 play in the exacta that boxes favorite Norah’s Princess, 10-1 shot Norah’s Princess and 8-1 Tickle My Fancy.