Daily Racing Form Southern California handicapper Brad Free provides his selections, analysis and suggested wagers for Saturday, Aug. 26 at Del Mar.

Date
Title
Schedule
Description
  • Brad Free’s top 4 picks for each race (Thursday evening)
  • Brad Free’s analysis of top races (Friday evening)
  • Betting strategies (tickets you can play) for each race based on the analysis (Friday evening)
  • Tickets for multi-leg tickets (Friday evening)
  • If necessary, picks, analysis, and suggested wagers will be updated after key scratches Saturday.
Selection Title
Selections
Analysis Title
Analysis
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Races
Race
Race 1
Race Description
MCl 20k
Expert
Selections

7-Brazen Bull
1-Cupid's Crusader
6-Big Way
3-Fordy G

Analysis

It sure looks like #7 Brazen Bull towers over this maiden-20 sprint. He is the speed of the field, with the highest figures, dropping to the bottom for the first time. He recently joined the stable of trainer Librado Barocio, whose five-year win rate with favorites is 50 percent (12 for 24). Brazen Bull could win this race at a short price.

However, a longshot lurks in #6 Big Way. He drops from a higher-class route; his fourth- and fifth-place sprints at Turf Paradise were okay considering ground loss. He raced wide in both. It is possible Big Way is a bust, but this is a basement-level maiden-claiming race and the dropper is listed 8-1. Good enough to gamble on. Betting strategy is simple. It’s a $10 play in the exacta ($1 minimum) that basically boxes Big Way and Brazen Bull. A saver win bet on the longshot is recommended.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta box (four times)
Bet Horses
6, 7
Bet Type
Exacta (two times)
Bet Horses
7 with 6
Bet Type
Win (saver)
Bet Horses
6
Race
Race 2
Race Description
Starter alw N2L
Expert
Selections

3-Rolling On
8-Devil Moon
4-Tigerhon
1-Mr. Disrespectful (SCRATCHED)

Analysis

It might have been possible to squeeze value from this turf sprint by betting against the fastest entrant, #1 Mr. Disrespectful (SCRATCHED). He can win if he reproduces his highly rated maiden romp on dirt, but this race is turf. While the inclination is to take a stand against Mr. Disrespectful, going against a 4-1 third choice is not that clever. (Mr. Disrespectful is scratched.)

Two others look interesting. #3 Rolling On finished fourth, two noses from second, in his first start in two months. His pressing style should translate to a forwardly placed trip over a turf-sprint course that rewards speed. A similar comment applies to #8 Devil Moon. Last-out runner-up as favorite, he figures for a similar pressing trip outside. Maybe #4 Tigerhon fits, but he has raced three times on Del Mar turf and did not run well in any. As for program favorite #5 Castleknock, there is no obvious reason why he should be listed as low as his 2-1 program price. This race is a bit of a mishmash. Betting strategy is a small “action bet” on Rolling On, who is listed 4-1. But this race basically is a pass.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (action bet)
Bet Horses
3
Race
Race 3
Race Description
20k claiming N3L
Expert
Selections

8-Pequena Tormenta
2-Slam Diego
3-Everlys Girl
5-Gray Frost

Analysis

This N3L claiming sprint includes a formidable low-odds dropper. #8 Pequena Tormenta was overmatched in a N1X, but two previous starts are the fastest in this field. One could argue Pequena Tormenta is the most probable winner on the card, but taking short prices on class droppers is not a long-term winning strategy. She is listed 5-2, which seems high. Chances are, she will be bet down. Two others enter with credentials.

#2 Slam Diego crushed a N2L claiming sprint last out, her second win over the Del Mar main track. #3 Everlys Girl was claimed from a fast third-place finish against Cal-breds; she is sharp and listed at a generous 5-1. While recognizing that Pequena Tormenta “should” win, betting strategy this race is a $18 play in the pick three (50-cent min) that will include the two upset candidates.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Pick three
Bet Horses
2, 3, 8 with 1, 5 with 4, 5, 6
Bet Type
Pick three
Bet Horses
8 with 1, 5 with 4, 5, 6
Bet Type
Pick three
Bet Horses
2, 3, 8 with 5 with 1, 4, 5, 6
Race
Race 4
Race Description
MSW
Expert
Selections

5-Mirahmadi
1-Miracle Mark
3-Point Dume
4-Flight Way

Analysis

Program favorite #5 Mirahmadi looks like the controlling speed in this dirt mile for maiden 2yos. It’s his third start after missing as the favorite in two sprints. His recent fourth was better than it looks. He did not get away well from the rail, hit the gate, then went evenly behind three rivals who returned to run well: stakes-placed, maiden runner-up, maiden winner. Another runner, sixth-place Boltage, scored a big maiden win Thursday. Mirahmadi exits a key race.

#1 Miracle Mark is worth a second chance after a seventh-place debut. He broke slowly, raced wide and merely ran around the track. Immediately after that sprint, his connections concluded he wants two turns and aimed specifically for this mile race. Miracle Mark should improve second time out.

The others would be a reach. #3 Point Dume was only prepping in his debut, a race won by a heavily favored stablemate. #4 Flight Way adds blinkers following an off-slowly debut. #6 Bigredsandribeyes goes long off an even-paced sprint fifth. Mirahmadi is a likely winner at a short price, but his odds could be lower than 8-5. Betting strategy is only for the sake of action, a small win bet on Miracle Mark and a small exacta box with Mirahmadi.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (action bet)
Bet Horses
1
Bet Type
Exacta box (action bet)
Bet Horses
1, 5
Race
Race 5
Race Description
OC 80k/N2X
Expert
Selections

6-Freedom Lasss
1-Kitty Kitana
5-Gracelund Gray
4-Arina

Analysis

#6 Freedom Lass at 5-2 is not a great gamble, even if she is the most likely winner after a decent third at this level. But she lost this N2X condition four times already, and at age 6, it’s not like she has upside. The horse to beat, yes, maybe not the horse to bet.

#1 Kitty Kitana is usually undervalued, favored eight of her last 10 while winning twice. She benefits by a return to Del Mar turf, where she has a win and two seconds from three starts. #5 Gracelund Gray is the key, at 6-1. She has trained well for her comeback, she won on this course last summer, and trainer Peter Eurton has been one of the hottest trainers this year in California. Finally, #4 Arina makes her California debut after being purchased for $120k at a horses-of-racing-age sale. She placed in a pair of N2X turf routes in spring in New York. Due to a discrepancy in odds, betting strategy centers around third preference Gracelund Gray. It’s a $10 play in the exacta ($1 min) that insists Gracelund Gray finished one-two, and a win bet on Gracelund Gray.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta key box (two times)
Bet Horses
5 with 4, 6
Bet Type
Exacta box
Bet Horses
1, 5
Bet Type
Win
Bet Horses
5
Race
Race 6
Race Description
40k claiming
Expert
Selections

5-My Man Bags
6-Positivity
3-Disco Ball
10-Quick Finish

Analysis

A deep field of $40k claiming sprinters includes #5 My Man Bags, who is back doing what he does best, sprint on dirt. A six-time winner including three of his last four dirt starts, his speed figures are fast, his versatility allows him to adapt to the pace. The knock is price. He is listed 3-1 favorite. That seems short in a race this deep. Others have a look.

#6 Positivity continues down the ladder: from graded stakes, to Cal-bred stakes, to N2X, to $40k claiming. It’s not optimistic placement, but he has never raced this low and all his recent speed figures exceed par for this class level. #3 Disco Ball drops, shortens to his preferred sprint trip, and adds blinkers. Win or lose, he should be among the pacesetters. There is a bomb in the field. #10 Quick Finish returns from a layoff with a solid work pattern, speed figures that match par, proven form over the DMR surface, and a quietly reliable stable. Quick Finish is listed 15-1. At that price, he is worth a stab. Betting strategy focuses on the longshot: win and place, $6 play in the exacta ($1 min) and $3 play in the trifecta (50-cent min).

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win
Bet Horses
10
Bet Type
Place
Bet Horses
10
Bet Type
Exacta
Bet Horses
5, 6 with 10
Bet Type
Exacta
Bet Horses
3, 5, 6, 9 with 10
Bet Type
Trifecta
Bet Horses
5, 6 with 3, 5, 6, 9, with 10
Race
Race 7
Race Description
MSW
Expert
Selections

1-Uncle Reg
5-Quintecents
11-Harry's Onthefly
9-Petcoff

Analysis

#1 Uncle Reg is supposed to win this maiden turf sprint as the favorite. He has speed, an inside post, and turf influence in his pedigree. Lea progeny can turf; the dam of Uncle Reg scored her only victory in a turf sprint. Uncle Reg, shortening from six and one-half furlongs to five, should be long gone; the others in the field look the same. Betting strategy is a $10 play in the pick three that will use Uncle Reg as a stand-alone single.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Pick three
Bet Horses
1 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 with 1, 4
Bet Type
Pick three
Bet Horses
1 with 4, 7 with 1, 4
Race
Race 8
Race Description
OC 80k/N2X
Expert
Selections

4-Arham
7-Principe Carlo
3-Howbeit
8-Good With People

Analysis

#4 Arham and #7 Principe Carlo top this N2X/optional claiming sprint. Program favorite Arham has an excuse for his off-the-board finish at this level last out. He zoomed into a pace duel and surrendered. Freshened since that race three months ago, he returns to a sprint, and to the DMR track on which he scored his first California victory. Principe Carlo ran super in his comeback, and could vie for favoritism in his second start back. He dueled inside over a pro-outside surface, hung tough to deep stretch and tired. Now he moves outside, with a comeback race under his belt, and a fast recent workout that signals readiness. It’s an eight-horse field that lacks parimutuel appeal. No plays.

Plays Title
Plays
Race
Race 9
Race Description
OC 40k/N1X
Expert
Selections

1-Speed Lane
4-Yerwanthere
9-Lakota Spirit
5-Gimme Mo Baby

Analysis

Finally, a race in which to get creative, although #1 Speed Lane is curiously listed 6-1 on the morning line. It’s an unusually low price on a mare who last out finished fifth at 31-1. Here’s hoping her odds drift. And here’s the argument that supports a potential upset.

This N1X turf route is conspicuously light on pace. Speed Lane is quick enough to make the lead from the rail. She has placed multiple times at the level, and could be loose. Perhaps it is a reach to back a 1-for-19 mare, but circumstances are ripe for a front-running upset against modest competition. #4 Yerwanthere adds Lasix for her U.S. debut, having only recently arrived from Europe where she won two of five. She is the 3-1 program favorite. Another curious low price. Betting strategy focuses on longshot front-runner Speed Lane: win bet, and $14 play in the double.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win
Bet Horses
1
Bet Type
Double
Bet Horses
1, 4 with 6, 9
Bet Type
Double
Bet Horses
1 with 6, 7, 9
Race
Race 10
Race Description
Pat O'Brien (G2)
Expert
Selections

6-Brickyard Ride
9-Anarchist
7-Spirit of Makena
4-Sir Atticus

Analysis

First of all, it is unlikely program favorite #9 Anarchist will start as high as his 7-2 program odds. Chances are, he will be bet down following runner-up finishes to the top sprinter in the East (Elite Power) and West (The Chosen Vron). Anarchist drew comfortably near the outside, he has a versatile style and might simply be the best horse in the field.

#6 Brickyard Ride is the choice to wire the field. He is fast, shortening from a route to a sprint, and could be long gone as the speed of the speed. It is true that #7 Spirit of Makena had a tough trip last out, but until his trainer and rider emerge from summertime funks, have to pass. Price horses to use underneath are #3 Hoist the Gold at 12-1 for a longshot stable; comebacker Visitant at 8-1; and #11 Bye Bye Bobby at 20-1, shortening from 12 furlongs to seven. Betting strategy is a $8 play in the exacta ($1 min) insisting the race be won by either Brickyard Ride or Anarchist.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta
Bet Horses
6, 9 with 3, 6, 8, 9, 11
Race
Race 11
Race Description
MCl 62.5k
Expert
Selections

9-Crypto Man
5-Admiral Halsey
3-St Ignacio
8-Russells Hustle

Analysis

Maiden-claiming turf routes are often inscrutable. This is one of those. #9 Crypto Man finished second at this maiden-62.5k level in his comeback last out. That effort would probably be fast enough to handle this field. #5 Admiral Halsey stretches out for the first time, his pedigree is fine for a mile. #3 St Ignacio will roll late, as usual; #8 Russells Hustle is a trouble-prone rogue. This is a pass race. No plays.

Plays Title
Plays
Select Track